As part of the Sharp Football Draft Kit, Raymond Summerlin is posting a fantasy football preview for all 32 NFL teams.
This preview includes advanced stats, the fantasy football outlook for Jimmy Garoppolo, Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, Hunter Renfrow, Josh Jacobs, and every other notable Raider, and in-depth analysis of the coaching staff, passing game, and rushing attack.
Find a link to every team preview in our Draft Kit Hub.
Highlights:
- Bringing in Jimmy Garoppolo hints at an offensive shift. Garoppolo has averaged 7.22 air yards per attempt in his career. Derek Carr was at 9.13 last season. 8.5% of Garoppolo’s career throws have traveled more than 20 yards down the field. 11.4% of Carr’s did last season.
- Davante Adams’ usage took a big turn in his first season with the Raiders. After averaging under 10 air yards per target over his final two seasons with the Packers, Adams averaged 11.8 air yards per target in 2022. He was 10 or more yards down the field on 45% of his targets last season. His average in Green Bay was 36.3%.
- Josh Jacobs was seventh among qualifying running backs in EPA per rush (0.02), 11th in explosive run rate (12.1%), and averaged 5.2 yards per touch. He finished as the RB4 in per-game scoring. He was a top-10 scorer in nine of his 17 games and a top-20 scorer 12 times.
2022 Raiders Stats (NFL Rank):
- Points: 395 (12th)
- Total Offense: 5,993 (11th)
- Plays: 1,049 (20th)
- Offensive TDs: 40 (13th)
- Points Per Drive: 2.18 (8th)
- EPA+ Per Play: 0.9 (15th)
- Situation Neutral Pace: 32.29 seconds (25th)
2023 Raiders Coaching Staff:
- Head Coach: Josh McDaniels
- Offensive Coordinator: Mick Lombardi
The Raiders did not make any major coaching changes.
That is a little surprising on defense – they finished second to last in EPA per dropback allowed and third from last in EPA per play allowed – but not so much on offense, where the Raiders were generally average.
Josh McDaniels oversaw a run-heavy offense in New England following the departure of Tom Brady. In the coach’s final two years with the team, the Patriots were under their expected pass rate by eight percent.
The Raiders we not quite as run-heavy last year – three percent under expected – and were middle of the pack in early-down pass rate. They were also slow with a 25th-ranked situation-neutral pace.
Even though they moved on from Derek Carr, it is tough to imagine McDaniels did not trust the veteran quarterback, so these pass and pace rates are likely near where he wants to be moving forward.
What they asked Carr to do when he threw was more interesting.
The Raiders tied for third in air yards per attempt last season, and Carr finished fourth in attempts of 20 yards or more despite missing two games.
This offseason, they replaced Carr with Jimmy Garoppolo, got rid of Mack Hollins and Darren Waller, and replaced them with Jakobi Meyers, Michael Mayer, and Austin Hooper.
Those moves suggest the Raiders will focus more on the short areas of the field moving forward.
2022 Raiders Passing Stats:
- Dropbacks: 647 (12th)
- Neutral Pass Rate: 50.8% (19th)
- Pass Rate Over Expected: -3.5% (19th)
- Pressure Rate Allowed: 20.3% (17th)
- ESPN Pass Block Win Rate: 62% (9th)
2023 Raiders Passing Game Preview:
The Raiders will face the ninth-toughest passing schedule based on 2022 efficiency numbers.
- QB: Jimmy Garoppolo, Brian Hoyer
- WR: Davante Adams, Keelan Cole
- WR: Jakobi Meyers, Phillip Dorsett
- WR: Hunter Renfrow, DeAndre Carter
- TE: Michael Mayer, Austin Hooper
What if I told you Jimmy Garoppolo only trails Patrick Mahomes and Drew Brees in EPA per play since joining the 49ers in 2017?
Does that mean Garoppolo is the most underrated quarterback in the league?
Does it mean Kyle Shanahan is a warlock?
Given what we saw from Brock Purdy last season, I lean more toward the latter, but Garoppolo is a solid NFL starter joining a system he played in for three seasons.
That is assuming he actually plays for the Raiders after undergoing foot surgery this spring, but the team seems to think he will be ready for Week 1.
As outlined above, bringing in Garoppolo hints at an offensive shift.
Garoppolo has averaged 7.22 air yards per attempt in his career. Derek Carr was at 9.13 last season.
8.5% of Garoppolo’s career throws have traveled more than 20 yards down the field. 11.4% of Carr’s did last season.
Garoppolo has a career completion rate of 34.9% of throws 20 or more yards down the field with an EPA per play of 0.21. Those numbers would have ranked 20th and 24th last season.
None of that is to say Garoppolo is a bad quarterback, but the offense likely will need to adjust to better fit his skill set.
None of this really matters for Garoppolo’s fantasy value – he has never averaged more than 16 fantasy points per game in a season and has 225 career rushing yards – but it is interesting for Davante Adams.
Adams’ usage took a big turn in his first season with the Raiders.
After averaging under 10 air yards per target over his final two seasons with the Packers, Adams averaged 11.8 air yards per target in 2022.
He was 10 or more yards down the field on 45% of his targets last season. His average in Green Bay was 36.3%.
That increased downfield usage along with Carr’s struggles led to an uncharacteristic 55.6% catch rate for Adams.
He made up for it with volume, drawing a target on 29.2% of his routes, and averaging 15.2 yards per reception, easily a career-high.
If his average target depth comes back down, Adams will need to maintain his huge target share (32.3%) and be closer to his catch rates from his final couple of seasons in Green Bay.
He can certainly do that, but there are some concerns.
First, Jakobi Meyers is not a threat to Adams’ clear No. 1 status, but he is a better target earner (targeted on 22.2% of his career routes) than anyone Las Vegas had behind Adams last year.
Second, even if Garoppolo continues to be efficient, he is not Aaron Rodgers. He also has started more than 10 games just twice in his career, potentially opening up Adams to starts from Brian Hoyer or fourth-round rookie Aidan O’Connell.
Finally, it is worth noting Adams will turn 32 in December, which puts him in the age range when receivers begin to drop off. There were not any signs of that last season, but it is always something worth keeping in mind.
Adams is an alpha WR1 who should maintain a massive target share and has proven to be one of the best receivers in the league.
He still should be drafted as a clear WR1. There just are a few more questions surrounding him this season.
As for Meyers, he scored an unthinkable six touchdowns with the Patriots a season ago, four more than his career total to that point, and finished as the WR28 in per-game scoring.
The real concern for Meyers is volume with Adams likely to grab a big share of the available targets, especially around the end zone.
Adams was the target on 33.3% of the Raiders’ goal-to-go passes last season, and he was the intended receiver on 38.3% of the team’s throws into the end zone.
The defense still looks bad on paper, which could lead to more than expected volume as it did for the Vikings last season, but Meyers is unlikely to get the target share he needs to be anything more than a bye-week filler as long as Adams is healthy.
Hunter Renfrow is in an even worse spot than Meyers after seeing just 50 targets in 10 games last season. It was a massive step back from the 103-1,038-9 line he posted in 2021.
Especially if the Raiders want to get Meyers involved from the slot, where he has played 55.8% of his career snaps, Renfrow could find it difficult to both get on the field and earn targets.
*Preseason Update: The tight end situation looked like a true timeshare in the second preseason game. Perhaps Michael Mayer starts to pull away throughout the season, but as it stands he is just a fantasy stash.
With Darren Waller traded to the Giants, the Raiders will turn to Austin Hooper and second-round rookie Michael Mayer at tight end.
Hooper has not caught more than 46 passes in a season since leaving the Falcons in 2019. He was targeted on 18.8% of his routes with the Titans last season (17th among qualifying tight ends) and posted a 1.39 yards per route run (20th).
Hooper averaged 3.27 yards after catch per reception last season, 48th among qualifying tight ends.
It will be much more exciting from a fantasy perspective if Mayer can win this job.
Considered by many the best tight end prospect in this class, Mayer was the unquestioned focal point of Notre Dame’s passing game.
As Rich Hribar pointed out in his pre-draft tight end rankings, Mayer led all tight ends in this class in:
- Share of team targets (31.5%)
- Share of team receptions (31.9%)
- Share of team receiving touchdowns (36.0%)
- Share of team air yards (38.8%)
- Rate of targets per route run (35.7%)
- Yards per team pass attempt (2.39)
Despite a good 4.7 time in the forty, Mayer did not show elite athletic traits at the Combine, posting a 32.5-inch vertical, 9-foot-10 broad jump, and a lackluster 7.26 three-cone time.
Ironically, those numbers are very similar to what Hooper did at the Combine back in 2016.
Garoppolo has targeted tight ends on 23.3% of his career throws (would have been 10th last season) so there is some target upside here for whoever wins the job even with Adams around.
If that person is Mayer, he proved in college he can be a high-volume option in the passing game despite his athletic concerns.
2022 Raiders Rushing Stats:
- Rushing Attempts – Scrambles: 403 (20th)
- Yards Before Contact Per Attempt: 2.7 (17th)
- Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Line Yards: 4.93 (1st)
- ESPN’s Run Block Win Rate: 72% (8th)
2023 Raiders Running Game Preview:
The Raiders will face the eighth-easiest rushing schedule based on 2022 efficiency numbers.
- RB: Josh Jacobs, Zamir White, Ameer Abdullah
- OL: Kolton Miller, Dylan Parham, Andre James, Alex Bars, Jermaine Eluemunor
Josh Jacobs was one of the surprise performers in the 2022 season.
After the Raiders declined his fifth-year option in the spring, Jacobs literally made them pay by leading the league in rushing (1,653) and yards from scrimmage (2,053) while scoring 12 touchdowns.
He was seventh among qualifying running backs in EPA per rush (0.02), 11th in explosive run rate (12.1%), and averaged 5.2 yards per touch.
Jacobs finished as the RB4 in per-game scoring. He was a top-10 scorer in nine of his 17 games and a top-20 scorer 12 times.
He was only behind Saquon Barkley in snap percentage last season (74.5%), and the Raiders did not add anyone of note behind him on the depth chart.
After just 53 total receptions in his first two years, Jacobs has posted 54 and 53 in each of the last two seasons, but he did not get those catches playing in obvious passing situations.
He ran only 21 pass routes on third down all of last season with just one catch. That usage could point to some volatility in his passing totals.
There is also the contract concern. Jacobs has yet to sign his franchise tag and could decide to hold out into training camp and beyond, adding more risk to his profile.
He is also coming off easily the best season of his career, and as Rich Hribar points out in his running back tiers, drafting Jacobs this year could be buying high.
“Over the past 10 years, Jacobs is just the 13th running back to clear 375 touches in a season. Just one of those running backs came back and scored more PPR points per game in the following season. Just three matched their per-game touch totals.
Going back to 1992, there have been 71 seasons in which a back has cleared 375 touches.
67.7% of those running backs had a decline in points per game the following season with an average loss of -2.7 points per game. 77.5% of those backs averaged fewer touches per game the next season with an average loss of -3.2 touches per game.”
Jacobs’ draft cost has not gotten out of hand, however, with his ADP around the RB10 spot and in the third round of early drafts. Given the falloff behind him at the position, that is a reasonable draft cost.
Jacobs did not leave much for the other backs on the roster last season, with no other RB getting more than 17 carries.
Ameer Abdullah led the rest of the backs with 29 touches, 25 of which were catches. He ran 99 routes on third down compared to the 21 for Jacobs.
A fourth-round pick last year, Zamir White finished with 17 carries for 70 yards in 14 games. He would likely be the early-down replacement for Jacobs if the starter holds out or is injured.
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