As part of the Sharp Football Draft Kit, Raymond Summerlin is posting a fantasy football preview for all 32 NFL teams.
This preview includes advanced stats, the fantasy football outlook for Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Tyler Higbee, Cam Akers, and every other notable Ram, and in-depth analysis of the coaching staff, passing game, and rushing attack.
Find a link to every team preview in our Draft Kit Hub.
Highlights:
- Matthew Stafford‘s yards per attempt average fell from 8.1 in 2021 to 6.9 in 2022, his touchdown rate fell from 6.8% to 3.3%, and he averaged 56 fewer passing yards per game.
- Cooper Kupp averaged 2.41 yards per route run over the first nine games, saw a target on 29.1% of his routes, and was targeted on 30.9% of the Rams’ pass attempts.
- Cam Akers returned to the starting lineup in Week 12. From that point on, he carried the ball 16 times a game, caught another 1.6 passes per game, and scored six touchdowns.
2022 Rams Stats (NFL Rank):
- Points: 307 (27th)
- Total Offense: 4,769 (32nd)
- Plays: 1,001 (29th)
- Offensive TDs: 31 (25th)
- Points Per Drive: 1.71 (22nd)
- EPA+ Per Play: -8.3 (29th)
- Situation Neutral Pace: 33.09 seconds (30th)
2023 Rams Coaching Staff:
- Head Coach: Sean McVay
- Offensive Coordinator: Mike LaFleur
Following easily the worst season on offense he has had with the Rams, Sean McVay considered his future in January, but he decided to return for another go.
Liam Coen decided to return to Kentucky after one year as offensive coordinator. He will be replaced by ex-Jets OC Mike LaFleur. His brother Matt was the OC under McVay in 2017.
The Rams ranked eighth in EPA per play over McVay’s first five seasons. They had the third-highest neutral pass rate over that span and were one percent over their expected pass rate.
Their play selection looked similar last year prior to Matthew Stafford’s injury, but they were eight percent under their expected pass rate from Week 10 until the end of the season.
The offense was a perfect storm of bad in 2022.
Stafford and Cooper Kupp got hurt, the running game was awful until Cam Akers returned to the team and started to get healthy late in the season, and the offensive line was a carousel of mostly below-average players.
It is not a given the Rams bounce back on offense this year, especially with Kupp already hurt and the offensive line still a massive question mark.
If things fall right, though, this could be a good post-hype situation in fantasy drafts.
2022 Rams Passing Stats:
- Dropbacks: 610 (22nd)
- Neutral Pass Rate: 51.7% (14th)
- Pass Rate Over Expected: -3.1% (17th)
- Pressure Rate Allowed: 26.5% (30th)
- ESPN Pass Block Win Rate: 61% (13th)
2023 Rams Passing Game Preview:
The Rams will face the third-toughest passing schedule based on 2022 efficiency numbers.
- QB: Matthew Stafford, Stetson Bennett
- WR: Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua
- WR: Van Jefferson, Tutu Atwell
- WR: Ben Skowronek, Demarcus Robinson
- TE: Tyler Higbee, Hunter Long
Even before getting hurt last season, Matthew Stafford was having a down season.
His yards per attempt average fell from 8.1 in 2021 to 6.9 in 2022, his touchdown rate fell from 6.8% to 3.3%, and he averaged 56 fewer passing yards per game.
Stafford finished 25th among 33 qualifying quarterbacks in EPA per dropback and was off target on 12.5% of his attempts (24th).
A scary spinal cord contusion ultimately ended his season, and there were reports he considered retiring over the offseason.
He is back, however, to lead an offense bereft of talent outside of Cooper Kupp, who is already dealing with an injury.
Given how little Stafford contributes as a runner – he has averaged 2 rushing yards per game so far with the Rams – he will need another elite passing season like we saw in 2021 to really return fantasy value.
The good news is he is just a season removed from that kind of performance. The bad news is the talent around him just is not there.
That will especially be true if Kupp is forced to miss any time this season.
Sidelined throughout most of August with a hamstring injury, Kupp suffered a setback late in the month and is now questionable for Week 1.
This comes after Kupp was limited to nine games because of injury a season ago.
When he was on the field, however, he was still one of the best fantasy options in the game despite the lackluster offense.
He averaged 2.41 yards per route run over the first nine games, saw a target on 29.1% of his routes, and was targeted on 30.9% of the Rams’ pass attempts.
He was the WR1 in points per game last season and scored six touchdowns in those nine games.
The best fantasy outcome for Kupp is the Rams allowing him to get fully healthy before he returns, giving him the best chance to play deep into the season.
If they rush him back for Week 1, the risk of reinjury is a real concern.
The injury situation could push Kupp into the second round of drafts, but there are not many questions about what he will do when active this season.
The rest of the receiving corps is lackluster at best.
Van Jefferson should be the No. 2, but he has not been good through three seasons, averaging 1.38 yards per route run in his career.
In eight games without Kupp last season, Jefferson only earned a target on 14.6% of his routes. He averaged a 2.6/42.8/.25 weekly line over those eight games.
Even if Kupp misses time, it is tough to get excited about Jefferson.
The same is true of Ben Skowronek, who has averaged 6.3 yards per target thus far in his career.
There is at least some upside to Tutu Atwell and rookie Puka Nacua.
A second-round pick in 2021, Atwell finally got involved late last season, seeing 28 targets over the final six games.
He was even less efficient with his targets than Skowronek thanks to a 50% catch rate, but 31.4% of his targets were deemed inaccurate.
After averaging 17.8 air yards per target last season, there is at least some big-play upside with Atwell.
A fifth-round rookie, Nacua has reportedly had a good training camp and appears poised to be involved right out of the gate.
Nacua was hyper-productive at BYU, averaging 3.53 yards per route run last season, the best mark in the draft class.
He was used extensively in the screen game (28.9% of targets behind the line of scrimmage) and rushed 25 times for 209 yards and five scores last season.
Given his playmaking profile and how little talent there is ahead of him, Nacua is a viable late-round option in deeper leagues and someone to monitor on the wavier wire in shallow formats.
The real No. 2 option in this passing game is Tyler Higbee, who finished with a 72/620/3 line on 108 targets last season.
Those numbers only amounted to a TE17 finish in per-game scoring, but he was hurt by the lack of touchdowns for the offense as a whole.
With Kupp sidelined over the final eight games, Higbee earned a target on 25.3% of his targets and boasted a 21.5% target share. Both numbers were easily the highest on the team.
Higbee was actually better from a fantasy perspective with Kupp on the field, however, and he likely needs a good offensive environment to really be a weekly TE1.
2022 Rams Rushing Stats:
- Rushing Attempts – Scrambles: 390 (22nd)
- Yards Before Contact Per Attempt: 2.4 (26th)
- Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Line Yards: 4.39 (15th)
- ESPN’s Run Block Win Rate: 72% (8th)
2023 Rams Running Game Preview:
The Rams will face the 14th-easiest rushing schedule based on 2022 efficiency numbers.
- RB: Cam Akers, Kyren Williams
- OL: Alaric Jackson, Steve Avila, Coleman Shelton, Tremayne Anchrum, Rob Havenstein
Cam Akers had an interesting season.
Inactive for two games after falling out with the team ahead of the trade deadline, Akers returned to the starting lineup in Week 12.
From that point on, he carried the ball 16 times a game, caught another 1.6 passes per game, and scored six touchdowns.
Akers was seventh in running back touches and the RB7 in per-game scoring over that span.
The Rams leaned heavily into the run during that time, finishing 7% under their expected pass rate over the final seven weeks.
They were 1% under their expected pass rate over the first 11 weeks, and they were 3% above expected in 2021.
If Stafford plays a full season and Kupp is able to come back healthy, it is fair to wonder if Akers will get the same kind of workload in the running game.
He was also targeted on just 10.9% of his routes last season, 62nd among qualifying backs.
Not a big factor in the passing game and with questionable rushing volume, Akers fits perfectly in the running back dead zone.
Akers will be backed up by sophomore Kyren Williams, who earned praise during training camp for his performance.
Williams profiles as a better pass catcher than Akers, and he should have a role right away on passing downs.
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