Rams vs Seahawks Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 16

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 16 Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks Sunday afternoon game.

LA Rams	Rank	@	Seattle	Rank
2		Spread	-2
22.75		Implied Total	24.75
24.6	17	Points/Gm	29.5	4
19.2	3	Points All./Gm	24.2	15
67.4	5	Plays/Gm	64	18
62.8	10	Opp. Plays/Gm	69.5	32
43.9%	9	Rush%	40.2%	19
56.1%	24	Pass%	59.8%	14
39.4%	6	Opp. Rush %	34.8%	1
60.6%	27	Opp. Pass %	65.2%	32

The Rams are 5-2 against Seattle under Sean McVay, though this is just the second time over that span they have been underdogs losing 29-30 in Seattle last season as 1.5-point underdogs.
The Rams are allowing a league-low 0.21 passing points per attempt on throws over 15 yards downfield. The next closest team is at 0.44.
Russell Wilson is third in the league in passing points per attempt on those downfield throws (1.04).
When these teams played in Week 10, Wilson was 2-of-9 for 41 yards and an interception on those pass attempts.
Rams wide receivers rank second in the league in catchable target rate (78.8%) while Seattle wide receivers rank third (78.3%).
The Rams have allowed a league-low 2.7% touchdown rate to opposing wide receivers while Seattle is fifth (3.5%).

Quarterback

Russell Wilson: Wilson has been inside of the top-12 scorers at quarterback in just once of his past seven games, which was against the Jets. That includes a QB21 and season-low 9.9 points on the road against the Rams in Week 10.

Seattle has limited their aggressiveness, passing just 52% of the time on early downs within one score over the past seven games compared to 60% prior.

The Rams have allowed just two QB1 scoring weeks, are first in passing points allowed per game (10.9), and also are at their best where Seattle has been their past throwing the football. Wilson always has ceiling potential, but should be considered a QB2 in this spot paired with his trending performance.

Jared Goff: Goff is coming off a game in which he threw for 6.1 yards per pass attempt at home against the Jets and has now been a QB1 scorer in just two of his past nine games. Over that span, Goff has averaged 6.6 Y/A. The only time that Goff averaged more than 7.5 Y/A over that stretch has been against these Seahawks in Week 10 when he threw for 302 yards and 8.2 Y/A.

Seattle has roughly gotten their act together on defense, allowing 5.4 Y/A over their past five games. They have had quite a favorable draw over that stretch, facing Kyler Murray when he injured his shoulder, Carson Wentz, Colt McCoy, Sam Darnold, and Dwayne Haskins, so it is fair to apply a grain of salt in categorizing them as a good defense as well. It is also fair to question how far above Goff is above this crowd based on how he has played of late while handling Goff as a QB2.

Running Back

Rams RBs: With Cam Akers sidelined due to a high ankle sprain, the Rams will go back to Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown to carry the backfield. Henderson has picked up a number of injuries over the course of the season and has handled just four touches for eight yards the past two weeks.

It feels like a lifetime ago, but Weeks 2-7 when Akers played just 20 total snaps, Henderson averaged 15.5 touches for 86.0 yards per game with four touchdowns. Malcolm Brown averaged 9.3 touches for 37.5 yards in those games with one touchdown.

Just seven of Henderson’s touches have come on third down this season while 31.3% of Brown’s have, so we know Brown will have a role. When these teams played in Week 10, Rams backs totaled 23 carries for 99 yards and three rushing touchdowns (two for Brown, one for Henderson).

Seattle is ninth in yards per carry allowed (3.87 YPC) to backs and 12.4 rushing points per game (11th).

Henderson is a rushing-dependent RB2 with Brown as a touchdown-dependent FLEX.

Chris Carson: Seattle has kept Carson at 15-17 touches the past three weeks, with him posting 110. 98, and 69 yards in those games. The Rams have allowed 3.82 YPC to backs (seventh) and 11.3 rushing points per game (fifth) with 10 touchdowns allowed to backs (tied for third). Carson is an RB2.

Wide Receiver

D.K. Metcalf: Metcalf has gone over 100 yards in just one of his past six games with one WR1 scoring weeks over that span and four at WR30 or lower. That includes a season-low 2-28-0 game on four targets when these teams played in Week 10, catching neither of his two targets in coverage with Jalen Ramsey. I would assume Metcalf improves that line, but the Rams are second in the league in points allowed to opposing WR1 (12.4). With Metcalf’s dip in production and the matchup, he is a WR2 option.

Robert Woods: When these teams met in Week 10, Woods caught 5-of-6 targets but for just 33 yards. After an 18.7% target share through nine games, Woods has seen 28.7% of the team targets over his past five games. Woods has at least five receptions in seven straight games and has already set a career-high with eight touchdowns with two games to go. Seattle has not allowed a top-24 scoring wideout since that Week 10 matchup, but as mentioned with Goff, their strength of schedule has been lackluster. The fact that none of those soft opponents elevated their station is a testament that Seattle has improved, but Woods is still a WR2 option.

Tyler Lockett: Lockett has been a top-30 scorer in just one of his past eight games, failing to hit 70 yards receiving in any game since he thumped Arizona for 200 yards in Week 7. Lockett did see a team-high nine targets when these teams first met, catching five for 66 yards. That can keep him in play as a WR3/FLEX.

Cooper Kupp: Kupp has been a WR2 or better in just four games this season with six games as a WR4 or lower. Kupp still has five or more receptions in 11 games, but has found the end zone just three times all season and in just one of his past 10 games. Seattle has been more vulnerable to slot wideouts over the entirety of the season and Kupp (5-50) did have a slightly better game first go around with these teams to keep him as a WR3.

Tight End

Tyler Higbee: Higbee is coming a 4-67-1 games last week, the second time in three games that he has found the end zone. Those 67 yards were a season-high, but his usage has slowly started to climb from early in the season.

Higbee has played 84%, 87%, and 83% of the snaps the past three games while running a pass route on 65.5% of the team dropbacks. His rate for the season prior to that stretch was at 48.4%. Higbee still has not seen more than six targets in any game this season and has hit that number just twice, so his volume still needs to rise higher to trust him as more than a TE2 despite climbing.

More Week 16 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet: