Ravens vs Bears Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 11

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 11 Baltimore Ravens at Chicago Bears Sunday afternoon game.

• Baltimore is second in the league in gains of 20 or more yards per game on offense (5.1) and 31st in gains of 20 or more yards allowed per game on defense (5.2).
• Baltimore has allowed a league-high 12 offensive touchdowns from outside of the red zone. 
• Chicago has scored a league-low one offensive touchdown from outside of the red zone. 
• Lamar Jackson is averaging 8.5 yards per pass attempt on first and second down pass attempts (sixth in the league), but just 5.7 Y/A on third downs (36th).
• The Ravens have converted a league-low 25.6% of their third down passing plays. 
• 35.7% (5-of-14) of the Chicago offensive touchdowns have come via passing, the lowest rate in the league. League average is 61.7%.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Lamar Jackson: After a hot start as a passer, Jackson has now posted 6.5 yards per pass attempt or fewer in three of his past four starts. Over the past four games, Jackson has completed 61.3% of his passes for 6.5 Y/A compared to a 67.1% completion rate and 9.1 Y/A prior.

Teams have gotten hyper-aggressive blitzing Jackson, sending extra defenders on 42.1% of his dropbacks over that span, the highest rate in the league (30.8% prior). Against the blitz on the year, Jackson is averaging 7.1 Y/A with just three touchdown passes as opposed to 8.5 Y/A and 11 touchdown passes when not blitzed.

The Bears have only blitzed on 16.2% of dropbacks (28th) while also ranking 28th in pressure rate (19.1%). Jackson has faced two teams that rank lower in pressure rate this season in the Lions (19.3 fantasy points) and the Colts (41.9 points). 

Not only are the Bears failing to pressure passers, but they are also 28th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.53) and 30th in yards allowed per completed pass (12.3).

Justin Fields: Fields entered the bye playing his best football of the season in real life and fantasy, finishing as the QB4 (25.3 points) and QB10 (18.1 points). Fields is 12th in EPA per play (0.184) over his past two starts after ranking last in EPA per play (-.227) over his first five starts. 

Fields just averaged 10.0 yards per pass attempt against the Steelers, but he has also started to finally get loose with his legs, rushing for 43, 38, 103, and 45 yards over his past four starts. 

When you face the Ravens, you better be able to withstand the blitz. Baltimore is blitzing 33.2% of the time, the third-highest rate in the league. Against the blitz over his past two games, Fields is 11-of-18 (61.1%) with 10.4 Y/A after averaging 6.2 Y/A against the blitz prior. 

Fields has only faced one defense that blitzes more than the Ravens, and it was the Buccaneers in Week 7. He managed just 1.2 fantasy points in that game and threw three interceptions. The Bucs blitzed Fields on 44.2% of his dropbacks in that game. Ironically, Fields was 14-of-16 with 8.4 Y/A against the blitz in that game as opposed to 8-of-16 for 3.1 Y/A with two interceptions when Tampa Bay didn’t send extra defenders. 

When you do blitz as much as the Ravens do, it does allow for huge plays when things break down. Baltimore has allowed a league-high 13.1 yards per pass completion and is allowing 17.1 passing points per game (26th) as a byproduct of a number of blown assignments so far. Despite the strong back-to-back starts, Fields still takes a step of faith as a boom-or-bust QB2.

Running Back

David Montgomery: Returning to the lineup in Week 9 for the first time since Week 4, Montgomery was right back to being the workhorse back for the Bears, playing 85% of the snaps and handling 15-of-19 backfield touches (78.9%) for 80 yards against the Steelers.

Montgomery runs into another tough draw exiting the bye against a Ravens defense that has allowed a league-low 24.9% of carries against them to gain five or more yards. That said, the Ravens have allowed nine touchdowns to backs (16th) and are allowing 11.1 receiving points per game to the position (18th) as inroads to scoring for Montgomery as a volume-based RB2. 

Ravens RBs: After three straight RB2 or better scoring weeks due to a touchdown in each game, Devonta Freeman managed just 58 yards on 16 touches last Thursday. Without a score, he fell down to RB3 status and he has reached 60 yards from scrimmage just once on the season. Freeman did accrue 81.3% of the backfield touches in Week 10, which was a season high. 

We will have to monitor whether or not Latavius Murray will finally make his return to action since being injured in Week 6. If Murray does not return to the lineup, Freeman can hold onto RB3/FLEX status, but all of these Raven running backs are touchdown-dependent FLEX plays. The Bears can be run on, allowing 4.6 YPC to backs (26th), but they do rank sixth in the league in points allowed per touch (0.82) to the position. 

Wide Receiver

Rashod Bateman: Bateman only ran a pass route on 64.0% of the team dropbacks with Sammy Watkins returning to the lineup last week, Bateman’s lowest rate over his four games played. That still did not stop him from making the most of things, catching 6-of-8 targets for 80 yards. In Bateman’s four games, he has carried target shares of 22.2%, 14.6%, 19.5%, and 19.5% with at least six targets in each game. With Marquise Brown downgraded to out on Sunday with a thigh injury, Bateman will be elevated to carry a prominent role in the offense with another bump going out to Sammy Watkins and Devin Duvernay.

The Bears have faced 18.9 targets per game to wideouts (11th), but they are allowing a league-high 9.8 yards per target and 7.1% touchdown rate (30th) to the position. Bateman is an upside WR3 with the projected volume uptick. 

Darnell Mooney: Mooney has developed in the Chicago wideout to play in fantasy, posting WR3 or better scoring weeks in four of his past six games. Despite clearing 65 yards in just one of those games, Mooney has now out-targeted Allen Robinson 48-39 with Fields under center. With Robinson doubtful for Sunday, kick that up a notch.

The Ravens have allowed just a 59.1% catch rate to opposing wideouts (eighth), but when the Ravens do give up plays, they are of the splash play variety, allowing a league-high 14.8 yards per catch to the position to keep Mooney in play as a WR3 option. 

Tight End

Mark Andrews: Andrews snagged 6-of-8 targets for 63 yards and his fourth touchdown of the season last Thursday, keeping him as the TE2 in tight end scoring on the season behind Travis Kelce. 

The Bears have faced the sixth-fewest targets per game to tight ends (5.8) and are second in yards per target (5.2 yards) and fifth in catch rate (59.6%) to the position. They have not allowed more than 45 yards in a game to a tight end since Week 1 with T.J. Hockenson and Darren Waller as part of the sample, but they did allow a pair of touchdown to Pat Freiermuth entering the bye while Andrews is second in the league with seven end zone targets among all tight ends. Andrews remains a front-end TE1.

Cole Kmet: Kmet is coming off his first TE1 scoring week of the season, catching 6-of-8 targets for 87 yards in Week 9 against the Steelers. Kmet has seen at least 19.4% of the team targets in each of his past five games, but that was also the first time he cleared 49 yards in a game on the season.

Kmet will look to come out of the bye week building off that game against a Baltimore defense allowing 6.2 receptions (30th), 72,4 yards (30th), and six touchdowns (T-25th) to opposing tight ends. Baltimore did hold Mike Gesicki to zero catches on seven targets last week but did allow other Miami tight ends to catch 4-of-5 targets for 57 yards. Kmet is a matchup-based TE2 and dart streamer if missing Noah Fant or Tyler Higbee on rosters this week.

More Week 11 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:

NE at ATL| GB at MIN | BAL at CHI | WFT at CAR | IND at BUF | DET at CLE | SF at JAX | HOU at TEN | MIA at NYJ | NO at PHI | CIN at LVR | ARI at SEA | DAL at KC | PIT at LAC | NYG at TB