Ravens vs Bengals Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 16

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 16 Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals Sunday afternoon game.

• Baltimore is allowing a league-high 24.9% of opponent first down plays to gain another first down or touchdown. 
• Baltimore is allowing a gain of 20 or more yards once every 12.2 plays, the highest rate in the league.
• The Ravens have allowed a league-high 16 touchdowns from outside of the red zone.
• The Bengals lead the NFL with 18 offensive touchdowns scored from outside of the red zone, including five against the Ravens in Week 7.
• 75.5% of the yardage gained against Baltimore has come via passing, the highest rate in the league.
• The Bengals are averaging +1.3 yards per pass attempt than their opponent, third in the league.
• The Ravens are last in the league in sack differential (-20).

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Joe Burrow: Burrow has had just two QB1 scoring weeks over his past six games, throwing six touchdown passes to five interceptions over the stretch. The lack of aggression in this offense has been a thorn as Burrow only threw the ball 22 times on Sunday, largely only when the Bengals had to.

35.6% of Burrow’s pass attempts have now come on first down, which ranks 31st in the league. This despite Burrow averaging 8.9 yards per pass attempt (third) with 12 touchdown passes (third) on first down passes while he also ranks fourth in the league in completion rate over expectation on those early down throws. The Ravens are a complete pass funnel defense, so let’s see if Zac Taylor unlocks the offense for Burrow on early downs Sunday.

When these teams played in Week 7, the Ravens decided to do what they do and blitzed Burrow at will. Burrow was blitzed 38.5% of the time in that game (third highest in the league that week) and he punished Baltimore when blitzing, completing 10-of-15 passes (66.7%) for 244 yards (16.3 Y/A) and two touchdowns. Burrow is second in the league with 10.8 Y/A against the blitz this season compared to 7.6 Y/A (11th) when not blitzed, so Baltimore should ease off the gas compared to their early season matchup unless they want to invite more splash plays.

Burrow’s recent limitations in the offense cast a cloud over his ceiling, but this is a matchup made for his strengths and should be considered a back-half QB1 option with upside.

Josh Johnson: Johnson is set up to make his first start with the Ravens after being picked up off waivers by the Ravens due to Lamar Jackson's ankle injury and Tyler Huntley being placed on the COVID list. Johnson has not started a game since 2018 when he was with Washington, but he did appear in two games with the Jets this season, highlighted by a 24.5 fantasy point game in Week 9 against the Colts in which Johnson completed 27-of-41 passes for 317 yards and three touchdowns. Johnson offers some rushing upside as well, averaging 30.0 yards per game on the ground back in 2018 when he was the starter.

The Bengals pressured Baltimore passers on 45.2% of his dropbacks (fourth in the league) when these teams met in Week 7. The Bengals are 21st in the league in passing points allowed per game (15.1) to allow an out for Johnson to go with his legs, but Johnson is a 2QB option. 

Running Back

Ravens RBs: Devonta Freeman handled just seven touches for 24 yards on Sunday, his fewest number of touches in a game since Week 7. He also handled just 46.7% of the backfield touches after 94.7% the week prior, his lowest touch share in a game since Week 7 as well. Latavius Murray had eight touches for 51 yards, which opens the door for a “hot hand” situation moving forward and makes both backs touchdown-dependent FLEX options.

The Bengals are allowing 4.0 yards per carry to backs (10th), but where they give up their damage is out of the backfield, allowing 12.8 receiving points per game (26th). 

Bengals RBs: Joe Mixon picked up an ankle injury last week and his status is questionable entering the week. Mixon did re-enter the game for the final kneel down to provide some optimism, but we will monitor him throughout the week while Samaje Perine should be rostered anywhere available. 

On the field, Mixon has sagged for 54, 68, and 60 yards over his past three games. With Perine playing passing snaps, Mixon has three catches for 12 yards in those games, which has been a thorn for him all season. Mixon has nine games with two or fewer receptions and has been higher than the RB23 in weekly scoring in just one of those nine games. 

We need Mizon to be active in the passing game to access his ceiling, especially here. Baltimore is allowing 3.9 yards per carry to backs (ninth). Mixon did find the end zone when these teams played in Week 7 but rushed 12 times for 59 yards. Perine came in to clean up in a blowout, rushing 11 times for 52 yards, including a 46-yard touchdown run, his only rushing score on the season. 

If Mixon is good to go, he is a higher-end RB2 with his RB1 ceiling tied to a receiving role while Perine would be a volume-based RB2.

Wide Receiver

Ja’Marr Chase (TRUST): Chase has had his share of down games over the back-half of the season, but he bottomed out last week, catching 1-of-4 targets for three yards.

In the seven games since these teams played in Week 7, Chase has been a WR2 or better just once while averaging 40.6 receiving yards per game. 

Now, Chase just showed us Week 14 that he still carries a massive ceiling and he is still second in the NFL in route participation (96.4%). We also have matchup appeal here. The Ravens are allowing a league-high 14.9 yards per catch to opposing wide receivers while they are 31st in yardage allowed on downfield targets (1,213 yards) and 30th in touchdowns allowed (nine) on those targets. That includes an 8-201-1 game to Chase on 10 targets in Week 7 when they still had Marlon Humphrey. 

Tee Higgins (TRUST): Higgins also was frozen out of things on Sunday with the Bengals tucking their offense in for a season-low 21 team targets, catching 2-of-3 targets for 23 yards.

Again, the Bengals gameplan here should be pass-centric, but we still require a step of faith that Taylor is going to do the right thing. When these teams played in Week 7, Higgins received a season-high 15 targets, but managed a pedestrian 7-62-0 line on all of those looks. If the Ravens devote resources to Chase like they did Davante Adams a week ago, then Higgins has an opportunity to run that target volume back in the rematch while last week was just the second time over his past eight games that he was not a top-25 scorer.

Marquise Brown: The good news is that no player (pending Tuesday games) had more targets than Brown did last week with 14. Only Tyreek Hill (12) had more receptions than Brown’s 10. 

The bad news is that all resulted in 43 yards. The only players since targets were a stat in 1992 to have fewer yards than Brown in a game with 10 or more catches have all been running backs. 

With a 4.4-yard average depth of target, Brown now has an aDOT of 8.3 yards over his past five games after a 14.4 aDOT prior. As a result, Brown has 55 or fewer receiving yards in all five of those games. The last time that Brown scored a touchdown was Week 7 against these Bengals.

The targets are still here weekly for Brown (seven or more in seven straight with 11.8 per game over that span) to keep him in play on the WR2/WR3 line, but he needs the target depth, downfield, and end zone shots all to return.

Tyler Boyd: Boyd was the only Bengal wideout to stay afloat last week, catching 5-of-6 targets for 96 yards, including a 56-yard touchdown, his third score on the season. Boyd has now traded off usable weeks, scoring as the WR14, WR85, WR30, WR84, WR24, WR49, and WR8 over his past seven games. 

Boyd managed a 4-39-0 line when these teams played in Week 7 and for as bad as the Ravens have been on the backend, they are actually allowing the fewest points per game to opposing slot receivers (8.3 points per game), keeping Boyd as a WR4/FLEX.

Rashod Bateman: A week after a 7-103-0 breakout, Bateman took another step back last week, catching 1-of-2 targets for five yards. The positive news is that Bateman ran a route on a season-high 95.9% of the dropbacks. It has been one step forward, one back for Bateman, which keeps him as a WR5 flyer. 

Tight End

Mark Andrews: After a monster game on Thursday in which Travis Kelce reclaimed the TE1 spot on the season, Andrews did not let him hold onto it long as Andrews caught 10-of-13 targets for 136 yards and two touchdowns Sunday. Andrews now has 21-251-3 over the past two weeks. 

Andrews has not seen fewer than eight targets come in his direction since Week 7, which was when he caught 3-of-7 targets for 48 yards against the Bengals. Despite that, Cincinnati is not a defense to move away from Andrews as a top TE1 as they are allowing 8.2 yards per target (29th) to opposing tight ends. 

C.J. Uzomah: Uzomah caught three passes for 91 yards and a pair of touchdowns against the Ravens earlier in the season, so he will not go unnoticed this week. The Ravens also face the highest number of tight ends targets per game (8.9). Matchup appeal aside, Uzomah still takes a step of faith as a TE2 as he has not scored double-digit fantasy points or scored a touchdown in a week since that game. 

More Week 16 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:

SF at TEN| CLE at GB | IND at ARI | DET at ATL | BAL at CIN | LAR at MIN | BUF at NE | JAX at NYJ | NYG at PHI | TB at CAR | LAC at HOU | CHI at SEA | PIT at KC | DEN at LVR | WAS at DAL | MIA at NO