Bucs vs. Ravens Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 7

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 7 matchup between the Ravens and Bucs on Monday Night Football.

Find a breakdown of every Week 7 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Lamar Jackson: Jackson enters Week 7 as the highest-scoring fantasy quarterback.

He is the top fantasy QB1 you can play.

Jackson is coming off back-to-back 300-yard passing games, which he has not done since the 2021 season.

Jackson is throwing to the intermediate area of the field at the highest rate of his career (24.4%).

On those throws, he leads the NFL with a 136.3 rating, connecting on 34-of-50 (68.0%) for 12.2 yards per attempt with 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.

The league average on those throws is a 52.8% completion rate and 9.5 Y/A.

The Buccaneers have allowed a 44.8% completion rate (9th) and 7.8 Y/A (5th) on those passes.

Tampa Bay is once again blitz-heavy under Todd Bowles, sending extra defenders on 30.7% of dropbacks (4th in the league).

Jackson has completed 68.6% of his passes (8th) against the blitz for 9.0 Y/A (5th).

The Bucs also play Cover 3 on 43.1% of their snaps, which is fourth in the NFL. Jackson is second in the NFL with 10.4 Y/A against Cover 3.

The final element is that Jackson has run more than in previous seasons.

Jackson is averaging 10.7 attempts (his most since 2021) and 67.2 yards per game (his most since 2019) on the ground.

The Bucs have not contained mobile passers well, allowing Jayden Daniels (88 yards) and Bo Nix (47 yards) to tack on yardage while Spencer Rattler ran for 27 yards last week.

Baker Mayfield: Jackson is the only quarterback with more fantasy points than Mayfield.

Mayfield has been the QB7 or higher in weekly scoring in five of his six games this season.

He is doing things differently this season under Liam Coen.

This offense is predicated on quick passing and getting the ball into the hands of his playmakers.

Mayfield has career lows in air yards per attempt (5.6), rate of throws 10 or more yards downfield (25.4%), and throws 20 or more yards downfield (6.3%).

He is averaging a time to throw of 2.48 seconds per dropback, the fastest of his career.

As a result, 63.6% of his passing yards have come after the catch, the highest rate of his career.

There is not much here to push away from Mayfield as a QB1 again.

The game environment has a high total, and the Ravens will push the scoreboard.

Baltimore forces teams to pass at the league’s highest rate, and they have not slowed down the pass.

Baltimore is 26th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.482) and faces 37.0 pass attempts per game (4th most).

That cocktail has them 31st in passing points allowed per game (18.3).

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Running Back

Derrick Henry: Henry is living his best life right now in Baltimore and enters this week leading the NFL in rushing yards (704).

His peripheral rates are some of the best he has ever had.

Henry is averaging a career-high 2.50 yards before contact per rush.

18.5% of his runs have come against light boxes, the highest career rate.

54.4% of his runs have come from shotgun, the highest career rate.

Only 12.6% of his runs have failed to gain yardage, the lowest career rate.

30.3% of his runs have resulted in a first down or touchdown, the highest career rate.

11.8% of his runs have gained 10 or more yards, his highest rate since 2020.

Henry has scored a touchdown in every game this season and only has six receptions, so he is running as purely as possible.

We may encounter spots of regression since living on rushing efficiency is so difficult, but there is no doubt that this marriage of Henry and the Ravens is a perfect storm.

The schedule has also been kind.

The Chiefs are the best run defense the Ravens have played. The Bills, Raiders, Cowboys, Bengals, and Commanders have gotten trampled by just about everyone they have played outside the Ravens.

Tamp Bay allows 4.62 yards per carry to running backs (19th), but they have slowed down many good backs for fantasy.

They have faced Alvin Kamara (RB17), Bijan Robinson (RB27), and Saquon Barkley (RB21) in their past three games.

You are playing Henry as a touchdown-based RB1, but if you are playing showdown slates, you might want to move in another direction, hoping he stays out of the end zone.

If the Ravens want to dust off Primetime Justice Hill again, the Bucs are 30th in receiving points allowed per game (11.7) to backfields.

Tampa Bay RBs: The Tampa Bay backfield went bonkers on Sunday, with Bucky Irving turning 16 touches into 105 yards and a touchdown and Sean Tucker turning 17 touches into 192 yards and two touchdowns.

While the split between Irving and Tucker was even for the game, Irving out-snapped Tucker 28-to-11 in the first half (7-to-3 in touches).

In the second half, Irving played 18 snaps to 16 snaps for Tucker with 14 touches to Irving’s 9.

Rachaad White is expected to be back for Monday to further complicate this backfield.

Liam Coen suggested that all three backs could get each get their own drive to open the game and then “ride the hot hand”.

This backfield has been successful this season, but this is the best defense they have faced against the run since Detroit in Week 2.

In that game, the Tampa Bay backs combined for 18 touches for 45 yards.

The Ravens have allowed a league-low 2.87 YPC to running backs and 7.5 rushing points per game (2nd) to backfields.

They have been vulnerable through the air to running backs as a lifeline, ranking 20th in receiving points per game (9.2) to backs.

With the state of volatility in this backfield, all three backs are FLEX options in this matchup. 

I prefer Irving still the best of the trio.

Wide Receiver

Chris Godwin (TRUST): Godwin has excelled in this new offense under Liam Coen, an extension of what we touched on earlier with Baker Mayfield.

Godwin has a career-high 28.2% of the team targets and has been targeted on a career-high 26.8% of his routes.

Godwin is averaging a career-low 5.5 air yards per target and only has a 1.9% deep target rate.

17.0% of his targets have been screen passes while he has career-high target rates on in routes (17.0%) and out routes (26.4%).

Godwin is playing heavily from the slot again (61.4%).

The Ravens allow 10.4 yards per target to slot receivers (31st) and allow a 13.5% touchdown rate (29th) to those receivers.

Mike Evans:Last week, Evans was banged up, running a route on a season-low 67.5% of the dropbacks.

It was revealed that he has a hamstring injury, making his status questionable for Monday, although he is expected to play.

If Evans is fully healthy, he can also be bumped onto the Trust Tree.

If Evans plays at 100%, we expect a heavy pass script for the Bucs.

The Ravens are allowing 26.3 points per game to outside receivers (31st) while allowing 9.2 receptions (30th) and 121.3 yards (30th) per game to those receivers with 5 touchdowns.

Zay Flowers: Flowers stayed hot on Sunday, collecting all 9 targets for 132 yards.

We have noted this all season, but when the Ravens drop back to pass, they throw the ball to Flowers.

Flowers has 28.2% of the team targets (WR5) with 25% or more of the targets in five of the six games this season.

He averages 2.13 yards per route run, which is good for WR17 in the season.

There will be lean weeks when the Ravens are pounding the football, like Weeks 3-4, but those have been outlier games for them over the opening six games to that extreme.

This is a spot where I can see the Bucs fighting against the run, so Flowers should see opportunities here as a fantasy WR2.

Flowers leads the team with 34.8% of the targets against Cover 3 with 3.30 yards per router run.

He has a team-high 36.0% of the targets against the blitz.

Flowers also moves around a bit, playing 39.3% of his snaps in the slot. That should help him here.

Tampa Bay allows 6.2 yards per target to outside receivers (4th), but they are 20th in yards allowed per target to slot receivers (8.0).

They also have allowed 6.2 catches per game to slot receivers, 28th.

The Buccaneers also lost Jamel Dean last week.

If Dean cannot play on Monday, that alleviates part of this matchup, although Zyon McCollum has been excellent to open the year.

Rashod Bateman: If looking at a showdown dart or a deeper-league FLEX, Bateman has 58 and 71 yards over the past two weeks.

He still has 19.5% and 16.0% of the team targets in those games, so we won’t go wild, but if the Ravens are forced to come out of the running game more, Bateman has been on the field for 85.7% of the team dropbacks.

He does get the worst end of this matchup, playing 93.8% of his snaps out wide, but Dean's potential absence can elevate the rate at which he avoids McCollum.

Bucs WRs: If we anticipate a pass-heavy game from the Bucs paired with Baltimore’s inability to slow down wide receivers, Sterling Shepard (33 routes) still ran well ahead of Jalen McMillan (6 routes) on Sunday.

Ryan Miller (12) also played ahead of McMillan.

Shepard is only a thin play showdown slate, but the Ravens face 21.0 targets per game (the sixth-most) from wide receivers.

Tight End

Ravens TEs: Mark Andrews has drawn a pulse the past two weeks with games of 4-55-0 and 3-66-1.

He still only has 13.6% of the team targets in those games, so we are far from having him back as a locked-in TE1, but Sunday was the first time since Week 2 that Andrews matched Isaiah Likely in route rate (60% of dropbacks).

Ravens tight ends are not playing enough individual snaps to handle as more than touchdown-dependent fantasy options for spike weeks, but Andrews is at least no longer providing zeros.

Tampa Bay has yet to allow a touchdown to a tight end, but they are allowing 9.8 yards per target to the position (31st).

Cade Otton: Otton only pulled in 2-of-6 targets on Sunday for 15 yards, but one of them was his first touchdown.

After hitting 25% of the team's targets in Week 3, Otton has had 19.1%, 16.7%, and 16.7% in the past three games.

A low-ceiling option, Otton is at least on the field (85.5% of the dropbacks), and we anticipate a passing script for the Bucs.

Teams have targeted their tight ends 22.9% of the time against the Ravens (10th highest) and are allowing 6.2 catches per game to the position (30th).

They have yet to allow a touchdown to a tight end, but they are allowing 9.1 yards per target to tight ends (31st).

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