Ravens vs Dolphins Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 10

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 10 Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins Thursday Night Football game.

Baltimore	Rank	@	Miami	Rank
-7.5		Spread	7.5
26.8		Implied Total	19.3
27.6	7	Points/Gm	17.2	28
24.4	21	Points All./Gm	26.9	27
70	1	Plays/Gm	63.8	14
59.9	4	Opp. Plays/Gm	67.9	31
6.1	5	Off. Yards/Play	4.7	32
6.3	31	Def. Yards/Play	5.8	23
46.25%	6	Rush%	33.45%	30
53.75%	27	Pass%	66.55%	3
35.28%	3	Opp. Rush %	38.46%	10
64.72%	30	Opp. Pass %	61.54%	23

The Ravens have scored on 44.1% of their offensive possessions (seventh) while Miami has scored on 27.4% (30th).
Opponents are averaging a league-high 12.6 red zone plays per game against the Dolphins.
The Dolphins (1,132 yards) and Ravens (1,113 yards) are the bottom two defenses in yardage allowed on completions of 20 or more yards.
The Ravens have allowed a league-high 12 offensive touchdowns from outside of the red zone. The next closest team (Houston) has allowed eight.
Miami has scored just two offensive touchdowns from outside of the red zone, tied for the second-fewest in the league.
Miami is averaging 5.3 yards per passing play, ahead of only the Bears (4.3).

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Lamar Jackson: Jackson is coming off his third 30-point scoring game of the season. Jackson only produced 6.5 yards per pass attempt (his second-lowest rate of the season), but the Ravens were inflated by running a league-high 98 offensive plays, giving Jackson runway to not only 41 pass attempts that produced 266 yards and three scores, but also 21 rushing attempts, which he turned into 120 yards on the ground.

On Thursday, Jackson draws a Miami defense that is sending extra defenders on 29.7% of dropbacks (sixth). Jackson is no stranger to the blitz, facing an extra rusher on 32.5% of his dropbacks (sixth). He does have notable splits here, however, completing 62.4% of his passes for 7.3 Y/A and three touchdown passes against the blitz as opposed to a 66.5% completion rate, 8.9 Y/A, and 10 passing touchdowns when not blitzed.

That said, the blitz allows for big play opportunities and Miami has not been short on allowing them. They are allowing 4.6 passing plays of 20-plus yards per game, which is 31st in the NFL. Jackson also has held a high floor due to his rushing upside, scoring 18.0 or more fantasy points in every game but one. Keep turning to Jackson as a front-end QB1.

Miami QB: With a finger fracture on his throwing hand, Tua Tagovailoa is a question mark heading into Thursday night. In his absence on Sunday, Jacoby Brissett managed his way to just 8.5 fantasy points on 43 pass attempts against the Texans. Brissett is now sitting on 5.6 Y/A and a 2.5% touchdown rate in relief this season compared to 6.6 Y/A and a 4.5% touchdown rate for Tagovailoa.

Although the Ravens have allowed their share of explosive plays themselves, this is a matchup they stack up well against. Miami has struggled to protect either passes and Miami’s hobbled receiver room is not a major threat to exploit the aggressive Baltimore defense. Against the blitz this season, Brissett is averaging 4.8 Y/A while Tagovailoa is at 3.7 Y/A. The Ravens blitz 29.7% of the time, fifth in the league. Outside of chasing raw pass attempts, either starting Miami quarterback is a QB2 option only for those thin at the position.

Running Back

Ravens RBs: Devonta Freeman led the Baltimore backfield with 57 snaps (58%), 15 touches, and 83 yards this past week, catching a 5-yard touchdown pass. Freeman has now strung along three consecutive RB2 or better scoring weeks, all of which came along with a touchdown. Freeman has been the best of the Baltimore veteran, turning back the clock on the backfield Cerberus this season, averaging 5.7 yards per carry.

Le’Veon Bell played 23 snaps (23%), handling 11 carries for 48 yards and a 1-yard touchdown plunge. Bell had 17 carries for 34 yards prior to Sunday. We still have to wait on word if Latavius Murray will return this week after missing the past three weeks.

Miami can certainly be run on, allowing 14.7 rushing points per game (23rd) to backs while they are facing 27.6 touches per game from opposing backfields (20th). If Murray returns, things get muddled, but Freeman has been the best bet to make as a FLEX option.

Myles Gaskin: Gaskin is coming off a season-high 72% of the snaps and 26 touches last week. He also had his first rushing touchdown on the season. That’s the good news. The bad news is he turned those touches into just 57 yards against the Texans. The short end of things is just that the Miami run game is brutal no matter who is running right now. Gaskin is sitting on 3.6 YPC this season and the Dolphins as a whole are 30th in the NFL in explosive rushing yardage per game. 29.2% of the rushing attempts against Baltimore have failed to gain yardage, the highest rate in the league.

Gaskin will need to rely on his receiving ability to carve out numbers here as the Ravens are 22nd in the league in receiving points allowed per game (11.9) to backfields. Gaskin is a volume-based RB2 in PPR formats and a FLEX option in non-PPR formats.

Wide Receiver

Marquise Brown (TRUST): Catching 9-of-12 targets for 116 yards, Brown continues to build on his third-year breakout as he is averaging career-highs in receptions (5.8) and yardage (85.3) yardage per game. He also now has four games this season with double-digit targets after just two over his first two seasons in the league.

Brown sits at the WR14 in target share (25.8%) and second at the position in air yards per game (125.1 yards). Miami has capable corners, but they have allowed a league-high 30 pass completions on targets of 15 yards or further downfield, the types of targets that Brown leads the league in with 27.

Jaylen Waddle: Waddle remained a high-volume wideout last week, catching 8-of-10 targets for 83 yards. Those 83 yards matched a season-high as he still is peppered with targets near the line of scrimmage (6.5-yard average depth of target) due to the nature of this offense, but Waddle has now seen 43 targets over the past four games. With Will Fuller and DeVante Parker still out this week, there are not many other places for the ball to go in the offense, leaving Waddle as a floor-based WR3 in PPR formats and FLEX option in non-PPR formats.

Rashod Bateman: Bateman continues to get more work since returning from injury. The rookie is coming off running a pass route on a season-high 81.1% of team dropbacks. In the opening three games of his career, Bateman has posted lines of 4-29-0, 3-80-, and 5-52-0. Sammy Watkins is close to returning to challenge the target tree here, but Bateman has established himself as a floor WR4/FLEX.

Tight End

Mark Andrews: Andrews left some points on the field last week, catching 5-of-10 targets for 44 yards and failing to secure a potential touchdown. The 10 targets were the second most he has received on the season while he has five or more receptions in six of the past seven games. After a pair of so-so weeks, Andrews gets a Miami defense that has allowed efficiency to opposing tight ends, ranking 23rd in catch rate (73.9%) and 28th in yards allowed per target (9.0 yards) to the position. Andrews is a TE1.

Mike Gesicki (TRUST): Gesicki did not pop last week (4-54-0), but still received eight targets (20.5%). In the four games that DeVante Parker has now missed, Gesicki has averaged 8.0 targets per game and has seen 19.4% of the team targets in those contests. That target share would rank fifth at the position over the season while Gesicki is still fourth in targets overall (63) at the position. Baltimore has had their hands full defending tight ends. Opposing tight ends are averaging 6.5 receptions (30th) for 74.4 yards (32nd) while they have allowed six touchdowns to the position (tied for the second-most).

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