We have built up a bit of a baseline for this season with our player tiers, positional rankings, and all of the 2023 off-season content you can find in one place on the site in the full Draft Kit.

With that content in place to aid your knowledge in how to play the game of fantasy football, I also know some of you are here because you want to know how I am playing drafts out myself this summer.

I want to dive into how I am personally approaching drafts this year at the running back position.

How to Draft:

I will also update this throughout the remaining time in the offseason if we get any significant news that impacts draft approaches.

While even those of you with the draft kit may not have read every word written this offseason, at this stage of the offseason I am operating under the assumption you have at minimum checked out the player rankings page and the individual player writeups in the positional tiers posts.

With that in mind, these pieces will not be as player specific or fully into the weeds on the pros or cons of each player. Instead, they will be more focused on the approach to drafting each position.

Running Back Fantasy Related Articles:

Know Your Format:

The most important thing to account for before spinning your draft web is your league settings.

The number of points your league rewards for receptions and the number of required starting spots for each position (including FLEX positions) alters the top-down strategy you should be approaching your league with more than anything else.

In leagues that do not reward points per reception and reduce the amount of required starting wide receivers, running backs (particularly depth) gain more traction as your draft progresses as opposed to the receivers.

I have touched on this in the past covering high scorers, replacement value, and starting weeks, but the wide receiver position runs down the running back position extremely quickly in 0.5 PPR and full-PPR leagues while running backs hold more of their ground in leagues that do not score receptions at all.

You can win your league in a lot of ways.

I have won leagues with nearly every initial draft approach.

While it is great to have a plan before entering a draft, you still have to be able to adapt as things progress.

Especially at the running back position, things are fluid during the season. We will have injuries, busts, and depth charts we flat-out were wrong in projecting.

Whether building a roster out with a Zero-RB, anchor/hero RB, or RB-heavy approach, you can win, but this article in itself will be about a top-down philosophy to the position with draft targets to aid in guiding any of those approaches.

Come Out Swinging:

This one is an oldie, but it is still true today, which is worth remembering this time of the offseason. No position has consistently provided greater positional leverage from a seasonal and weekly fantasy standpoint than landing an elite running back.

The catch of course is that there are very few elite running backs per season.

With running backs continuing to lose touches through increased committees, playing alongside more mobile quarterbacks, and the position continuously losing ground in the receiving game, we have a finite number of resources at the top of drafts to acquire that check all of the boxes we are looking for at the position.

This is a large part of the reason we have seen the draft meta shift this offseason with gamers being aggressive at the position.

Tack on that we still have question marks heading into these final weeks about when we will see Josh Jacobs and Jonathan Taylor, and it is easy to see why the top-down approach for many has been to gobble up wide receivers early and often.

You have to pay top dollar to acquire the players that have the best odds of becoming a league-defining running back.

Front-end running backs have more fragility than high-priced wide receivers, but this is the area of the draft where the margins between the two positions are historically (and once again in 2022) have been the tightest.

That is the gift and the curse of the position.

I subscribe to the process of wanting to land as many running backs early as possible that check off our requirements to be considered a workhorse back.

A back that is going to push 275-300 touches in a season, stay on the field near the goal line, and remain involved in the passing game so they can thrive in all game scripts for fantasy football.

We want to chase opportunity firsthand. After that, we can factor in things such as offensive environment into tie breakers within tiers of similar backs in types of usage.

With the continued reduction in how running backs have been used in the passing game leaguewide and mobile quarterbacks taking away more goal-line touches than ever, it has made the backs that do everything a scarcer resource to come by.

This season, more than any season I can remember since maybe 2016 when players like Lamar Miller and Thomas Rawls were RB1 draft selections, the front-end of the running back player pool feels shallower than ever.

I have no issues double-tapping two backs that fit the criteria of legendary upside seasons to open up drafts and then hammer pass catchers for several rounds, especially in leagues that are not full-PPR.

But as mentioned, the list of those types is thin.

The list for me this season is Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler, Tony Pollard, Saquon Barkley, and Bijan Robinson.

When I am opening a draft with a running back, it has to be one of those players.

I do like Nick Chubb a lot, but I believe he has shorter odds at being the RB1 overall than those backs. I was hammering Chubb early this offseason, but he has risen a ton and often goes above Pollard. I do not want to mention him here because I believe Chubb paired with one of the backs above makes for a strong RB-RB start.

If I do land one of those backs, then I have no qualms about adding another, but you will have to measure the appetite for the wide receiver position in your draft.

If you have followed my work for years, you already know that I love the Anchor-RB/Hero-RB approach or whatever other moniker you want to label it.

While you can double-tap RB-RB if drafting in the back third of drafts this season, this year more than ever is a perfect setup for the Anchor/Hero approach.

I am most often looking to get one of those backs and then hammer pass catchers for several rounds before circling back to the position.

We have had some movement late this offseason with Jacobs yet to report to camp and  Taylor having a schism with ownership, which has moved around that back-end RB1 ADP.

You all should know by now that I have been targeting Tony Pollard nearly everywhere as my favorite second-round pick because I believe he should be a first-round pick. That may end up happening now over these final few weeks of the summer, so be prepared if you are also targeting him that you may have to be more aggressive with him.

Expanding out the back-end group of the RB10-RB20 range, there’s another subset of backs in Rhamondre Stevenson, Joe Mixon, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Aaron Jones that I do have more optimism for.

I would love any of those guys as my RB2 because I want to proceed with some caution in that area of the draft when selecting running backs.

Potential exceptions can include Kenneth Walker and Breece Hall.

Those are the highest upside options at cost with potential bell-cow qualities or on the proper end of the age spectrum, but those are mostly options that I prefer to target in auction formats over paying the iron price for in snake drafts.

Factoring in how poor we have been historically at selecting running backs in this area of the position provides even greater concern for paying up for those backs as players I am fully counting on. I have an interest in all of those backs mentioned from Stevenson through Hall, but I am playing those names far less aggressively and looking for an ADP dip to create a spot to select them.

The “dead zone” has a sprinkle of yearly hits despite the lowered odds. While being cautious overall in this area, those are the players I see as having the cleanest paths to success this season.

Circling Back:

Remember, we have already established that we have been strong at setting the market at running back, while high-end seasons at the position come from players with top-12 ADP.

After that, however, things historically taper off.

Once we are clear of those running backs, I am largely staying away from the position for the next tier of backs.

Once we clear that “dead zone”, then I am looking for discounted workhorses, running backs on the right end of the age apex, and backs that can catch the football (but do not catch the ball exclusively).

We will see where he ends up, but this is why I have been targeting James Cook. He checks all of those boxes and plays in an elite offense.

Rachaad White has been a target of mine here as well since he checks off most of the criteria, but I do prefer him more as my RB3/FLEX due to the potential that Tampa Bay could be outright awful and touchdown production limits his ceiling.

D’Andre Swift, Alvin Kamara, and Antonio Gibson all check off various boxes. They all come with question marks suppressing their ADP, but their high-end range outcomes (even if reduced) are ultra-high. Landing any of these backs in a platoon or as RB3/bench options mitigates a ton of their negative outcomes while we can swing for that Pantheon outcome.

It feels weird, but I also don’t hate James Conner when we are here, either. We can penalize him for the health and offensive environment potentially being bad in Arizona, but those elements are very much priced in.

If we are talking about non-PPR formats, then players such as Isiah Pacheco and Khalil Herbert become more appealing in this area of drats.

Auctions and Opportunity Cost:

A lot of the same core principles above translate over to my auction approach, but in an auction, I am far less risk-averse than I am in snake drafts. I am inherently a more cautious drafter in the early rounds of serpentine drafts.

I know I am going to get a lot of binary player choices wrong in those leagues, so I want to spend my top dollars on the players that I have the most confidence in. But in auctions, we are removing that apples or oranges player selection process to a degree.

I am more apt to remove a large portion of rounds 5-8 from my auction process since many players later carry the same risk and bust rates while accruing as many players as I can from the opening 3-4 rounds.

With that approach, I am more comfortable taking on some of the players I view as having the larger risks not fully baked into the cost of their upside.

If you are in an auction, you have the freedom to aggressively pursue any player you may have some doubts about early on over bypassing surrounding players that may offer more safety.

Auction formats are the spots where I am nibbling the most on Breece Hall and Javonte Williams or looking to land any of the previous backs I just mentioned from the dead zone below cost.

This is also a spot where Alexander Mattison can draw some intrigue priced down since the Vikings have such a soft projected schedule and making a play on his small sample of games leading the backfield.

Handcuffing and Making Better Depth Picks:

That brings us to handcuffing.

While the practice, in general, seems logical – insurance on a high-equity back – you are capping your team upside by limiting your roster.

You do not want to play for a single when you inherently need the early-round running back you selected to hit his ceiling.

A handcuff is a handcuff for a reason.

You are restricting your roster.

He is not the starter on his team because he is not as productive a football player as the starter. So, you are not getting a lateral return on your investment that you believe that you are protecting. Your team is still inherently getting weaker; you just hedged a little off the loss.

Instead, focus on buying other owners’ handcuffs over your own, in the interest of elevating your entire roster.

Just last week we highlighted that running backs attached to RB1-caliber running backs rarely have paid out.

If you are pursuing a draftable backup to a top-shelf running back that has no clear standalone value make sure that you have deeper bench spots.

While those backs will be selected in your drafts as insurance policies and lottery tickets, the real fortuitous backups have come from running backs attached to “dead zone” running backs, those tiers of backs we are largely avoiding.

We also talked about this last week, but this is how you can make better draft selections when targeting bench running backs.

Make the “dead zone” work for you by targeting backs attached to those players.

When building out benches, Tank Bigsby, Jaylen Warren, AJ Dillon, Zach Charbonnet, Gus Edwards, Chuba Hubbard, Devin Singletary, Ty Chandler, and Kyren Williams are players we should have readily in our queues.

Takeaways:

You do not only have to draft players here, but I want to put everything mentioned so far into a more compact and linear layout:

  • PRIMARY EARLY TARGETS TO OPEN WITH: Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler, Tony Pollard, Bijan Robinson, Saquon Barkley, Nick Chubb
    • *My preferred approach is to split RB/WR to open (especially in full-PPR formats), but taking two of these backs to open is the strongest way to play the position.
  • IF BRAVING THE DEAD ZONE: Rhamondre Stevenson, Joe Mixon, Aaron Jones, Jahmyr Gibbs
  • AUCTION VALUES OR LOOKING FOR BELOW ADP: Anyone above, Breece Hall, Kenneth Walker, Javonte Williams, Alexander Mattison
  • AFTER THE DEAD ZONE TARGETS: James Cook, Rachaad White, James Conner, D’Andre Swift, Alvin Kamara, and Antonio Gibson. Isiah Pacheco and Khalil Herbert in non-PPR.
  • BENCH TARGETS: Tank Bigsby, Jaylen Warren, AJ Dillon, Tyjae Spears, Zach Charbonnet, Gus Edwards, Chuba Hubbard, Devin Singletary, Ty Chandler, Kyren Williams
  • CHASING EARLY SEASON USAGE IN ZERO-RB BUILDS: Dalvin Cook, Jamaal Williams, Samaje Perine

Keeper Targets:

Wrapping this up, a look at players I want to target or get added intrigue in formats that allow keepers. I slayed this one last season, so let’s run it back.

  • Breece Hall: Injury discount this season but will be a full year removed from ACL next season and a potential Round 1 pick.
  • Javonte Williams: A worse injury than Hall without showing the same ceiling, but another injury discount.
  • Jahmyr Gibbs: High draft investment, elite potential as a pass catcher. The potential outcome to reach the McCaffrey-Ekeler ceiling.
  • James Cook and Rachaad White: Each has the potential to crush their price points as year two backs that can catch the football.
  • Dameon Pierce: Talent is here to beat ADP while offense will be in year two with C.J. Stroud.
  • D’Andre Swift: Yet to deliver on true potential, but a three-down skill set and 2024 free agent.
  • Isiah Pacheco: What if Pacheco builds on the close to 2022 and takes another step forward this season? Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jerick McKinnon are not under contract beyond this season.
  • Tyjae Spears: Derrick Henry will be 30 years old and an unrestricted free agent after the season.
  • Kenneth Gainwell: What if preseason rumors of him being the lead back do play out? D’Andre Swift and Rashaad Penny are only signed for 2023. Worth another bite at ADP.
  • Zamir White: Thin but non-zero chance that Josh Jacobs holds out this season or plays under the tag and walks this offseason.
  • Roschon Johnson: Could emerge in an ambiguous backfield while D’Onta Foreman is only signed for 2023.

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