The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 7 matchup between the Saints and Broncos on Thursday Night Football.
Find a breakdown of every Week 7 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Denver | Rank | @ | New Orleans | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | Spread | 1.5 | ||
| 19.0 | Implied Total | 17.5 | ||
| 18.7 | 25 | Points/Gm | 27.8 | 5 |
| 16.0 | 4 | Points All./Gm | 24.5 | 23 |
| 59.3 | 24 | Plays/Gm | 60.0 | 21 |
| 64.0 | 24 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 65.2 | 28 |
| 4.7 | 27 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.3 | 18 |
| 4.4 | 2 | Def. Yards/Play | 6.1 | 31 |
| 41.85% | 20 | Rush% | 48.33% | 9 |
| 58.15% | 13 | Pass% | 51.67% | 24 |
| 44.53% | 18 | Opp. Rush % | 39.64% | 6 |
| 55.47% | 15 | Opp. Pass % | 60.36% | 27 |
- Denver games average 34.7 combined points, 30th in the league.
- 54.0% of the Denver set of downs reach third down, 30th in the league.
- Denver has converted 25.0% (20-of-80) of their third downs, ahead of only the Browns (19.2%).
- 3.6% of New Orleans' plays have gained 20 or more yards, ahead of only the Browns (3.5%).
- The Saints are one of two remaining teams (Dallas being the other) without a run of 20 or more yards on the season.
- The Broncos are one of two teams (the other being the Rams) without a touchdown scored from outside the red zone.
- 25.4% of Denver's drives have reached the red zone, 29th in the league.
- 24.3% of the drives against Denver have reached the red zone or score prior, the third-lowest rate in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Bo Nix: It has not always been pretty, but Nix has now finished as a QB1 scorer in three of his past four games.
Nix was brutal until the final quarter on Sunday, completing 4-of-14 passes (28.6%) for 27 yards (1.9 yards per attempt) through three quarters against the Chargers before going 15-of-19 (78.9%) for 189 yards (9.9 Y/A) with 2 touchdowns in the final quarter with the Chargers giving up space in exchange for time ticking off the clock.
Nix added 61 yards rushing, which has been the best part of his arsenal for 2QB gamers.
He has averaged 6.0 rushing points per game, which is fifth among quarterbacks this season.
He has needed that rushing addition because he is last among qualifying passers in passing points per attempt (0.296), even below guys like Deshaun Watson (0.275) and Will Levis (0.272).
Nix is on a fantasy spectrum similar to Daniel Jones.
He runs just enough to keep him alive for spike weeks when the counting stats in the passing department add up, but he still carries a low floor when they do not.
Nix has three QB1 scoring weeks along with weeks as the QB20, QB28, and QB30.
If you are returning to Nix as a volatile QB2, this matchup is a mixed bag.
The Saints are fifth in the league in passing points allowed per attempt (0.301).
This matchup is not great on paper, but this will be the third game in 11 days for the New Orleans defense.
After playing 80 snaps on Monday night in Week 5 (second most), they were on the field for 72 snaps this past Sunday (fourth most).
If looking for Nix to stay active on the ground, the Saints are playing man coverage at the seventh-highest rate (33.0%).
Against man coverage, Nix has an 11.6% scramble rate (fourth in the NFL) compared to a 6.9% scramble rate versus zone coverage (12th).
Spencer Rattler: Rattler made his NFL debut as QB22 in fantasy (12.4 points).
Things got off to an okay start as Rattler was 11-of-17 (64.7%) for 140 yards (8.2 Y/A) and a touchdown in the first half against the Bucs.
He can move better than Derek Carr but does not process as quickly.
In the first half, 50% of his dropbacks were outside the pocket, with Klint Kubiak moving him around to compensate for the state of this offensive line.
But things fell apart after the first half, and Tampa Bay adjusted.
Rattler was 11-of-23 (47.8%) for 103 yards (4.5 Y/A) with 2 interceptions after the half with 78.6% of his dropbacks from the pocket.
In the pocket on Sunday, Rattler averaged 4.5 yards per attempt compared to 9.7 yards per attempt outside.
Rattler is stuck as a back-end QB2 here for fantasy.
The Saints will likely be without Chris Olave (concussion) and Rashid Shaheed (knee).
The offensive line remains a work in progress, with Cesar Ruiz and Lucas Patrick questionable (Erik McCoy remains on IR).
Denver will likely be without Patrick Surtain, but the team has allowed 9.3 passing points per game, fourth in the league.
They are also fourth in the NFL in pressure rate (40.4%).
When pressured last week, Rattler was 4-of-12 for 5.9 yards per attempt with an interception.
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Running Back
Alvin Kamara: Kamara was able to accrue another large workload (18 touches) and find the end zone for the seventh time to float his fantasy line in Week 6.
Kamara has felt the squeeze in this offense the past few weeks while also dealing with back, rib, and hand injuries.
After rushing for 5.7 yards per carry and a 60% success rate in the opening two weeks, Kamara has rushed for 3.3 YPC since with a 31.9% success rate.
He only has 66 and 64 yards in the past two games.
The good news is that he leads all running backs in target share (21.4%), and Rattler threw to running backs 31.6% of the time in Week 6.
While you are throwing Kamara’s workload, receiving ability, and touchdown equity in this offense at the wall as a fringe RB1, this matchup should continue challenging this running game and offensive line.
Denver allows 3.9 YPC to running backs (8th) with a first down or touchdown on 18.4% of those attempts (7th).
They are more vulnerable through the air, ranking 23rd in receiving points allowed per game (9.8).
With this game being the Saints’ third in 11 days and another short week, I would not be surprised to see Kamara shed some touches here.
We may even finally see Kendre Miller active.
Javonte Williams: Williams led this backfield with 36 snaps on Sunday but only managed 36 yards on 9 touches.
Jaleel McLaughlin played 13 snaps, turning 5 touches into 25 yards, while Audric Estime played 2 snaps, handling two touches for 13 yards.
Williams has only one week as an RB2 or better for fantasy.
He is an RB3/FLEX option for fantasy purposes and is still without a touchdown in the season.
Williams had games of 80 and 111 total yards the two weeks before last week.
He is still the best bet for touches if the Broncos are in a neutral or positive game script.
We also have the element of upside that this New Orleans defense has been stumbling for the past two weeks.
As noted, after playing 80 snaps on Monday night in Week 5 (second most), they were on the field for 72 snaps this past Sunday (fourth most).
It showed if you watched any tackling in that game on Sunday.
New Orleans was credited with 15 missed tackles against Tampa Bay, their most in a game this season.
They allowed the Kansas City and Tampa Bay backfields to rush 60 times for 331 yards (5.2 YPC) and 3 touchdowns with 2.52 yards per run before contact per attempt.
Wide Receiver
Courtland Sutton: Sutton grabbed 4-of-6 targets for 53 yards and his second touchdown on Sunday.
Sutton is only averaging 3.5 catches for 46.2 yards per game, but he has been the favorite target for Nix.
He has a 24.5% target share (WR16), leading all wide receivers with 50% of the Denver red zone targets and 66.7% of their throws into the end zone.
Sutton must find the end zone here as a WR4/FLEX option.
The Saints are good at defending outside receivers, allowing 7.7 yards per target (12th) and a 1.3% touchdown rate (2nd) to those wideouts.
Sutton is playing 86.2% of his snaps on the outside.
Saints WRs: New Orleans is trending to be without Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed.
After Olave left last week’s game, Bub Means ran a route on 73.9% of the team dropbacks, leading the wide receivers with a 22.2% target share.
Means caught 5-of-8 targets for 45 yards and a touchdown.
Cedrick Wilson (27 routes) and Mason Tipton (22 routes) were the next guys up. With Shaheed expected to be out, they will see a more significant role.
This group is best left for single-game DFS, but Means is the most appealing option if you have to fill a void as a WR4/FLEX.
Means did not have a high production profile, catching 90 passes over his three college seasons.
His best season came this past year, catching 41 passes for 721 yards and 6 touchdowns.
He played in some brutal passing games at Pitt but also had fewer receptions than teammate Konata Mumpfield in each of the past two seasons.
While Means did not have many collegiate counting stats, he made his catches count as downfield targets.
His 17.2 yards per career catch were third in this receiver class.
No player in this class had a higher rate of targets than Means on throws 20 or more yards downfield (41.5%).
As a downfield threat, Means has size (6-foot-1 and 212 pounds with 33.25-inch arms and 10-inch hands) and got himself noticed at the NFL Combine by running a 4.43 40-yard time attached to that frame.
Denver will likely be without Patrick Surtain, but this defense can still combat this receiving corps.
The Broncos are third in fantasy points allowed per target to wide receivers (1.33) and have allowed a league-low 0.9% touchdown rate on those targets.
Devaughn Vele: The ancillary wideouts for Denver are also better options for single-game DFS, but Vele is the most intriguing option.
Josh Reynolds is on injured reserve with a fractured finger, and this matchup offers some appeal for Vele.
Vele has been a top 36 scorer in full-PPR formats in his two games this season.
He has received 19.0% (8 catches for 39 yards) and 18.8% (4 catches for 78 yards) in those two games.
Vele has played a team-high 79.4% of his snaps in the slot, where the Saints have allowed 6.2 catches per game to wide receivers (28th).
Tight End
Juwan Johnson: Johnson caught all three of his targets for 48 yards on Sunday.
Johnson only had 7.9% of the team targets in Rattler’s first start, but he was on the field for 75.0% of the dropbacks compared to a 31.3% rate for Foster Moreau.
He is best left as a single-game DFS dart, but if you run him out in seasonal formats, the state of the receiving room leaves opportunities on the table for Johnson.
Tight ends also have 25.1% of the targets against Denver this season, the fifth-highest rate.
Denver TEs: Denver tight ends have combined for only 14 catches and 95 yards this season (0 touchdowns).
Everyone here is only in play for single-game DFS, but Lucas Krull ran a season-high 30 routes in Week 6 compared to 5 for Nate Adkins and 4 for Adam Trautman.
More Week 7 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Broncos @ Saints | Thursday Night Football |
| Patriots vs. Jaguars | Sunday -- 9:30 a.m. ET (London) |
| Seahawks @ Falcons | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Titans @ Bills | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bengals @ Browns | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Texans @ Packers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Dolphins @ Colts | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Lions @ Vikings | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Eagles @ Giants | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Raiders @ Rams | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Panthers @ Commanders | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Chiefs @ 49ers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Jets @ Steelers | Sunday Night Football |
| Ravens @ Bucs | Monday Night Football |
| Chargers @ Cardinals | Monday Night Football |