Saints vs Buccaneers Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 15

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 15 New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sunday Night Football game.

New Orleans	Rank	@	Tampa Bay	Rank
10.5		Spread	-10.5
18		Implied Total	28.5
23.4	16	Points/Gm	31.5	1
21.9	11	Points All./Gm	22.8	19
62.4	20	Plays/Gm	67.1	4
63.5	17	Opp. Plays/Gm	64.2	21
5.1	22	Off. Yards/Play	6.1	2
5.4	11	Def. Yards/Play	5.3	9
47.10%	4	Rush%	33.49%	32
52.90%	29	Pass%	66.51%	1
40.85%	14	Opp. Rush %	32.10%	1
59.15%	19	Opp. Pass %	67.90%	32

Tampa Bay is 5-0 in games decided by seven or fewer points, the best record in the league.
The Buccaneers are fourth in yards gained per possession (35.7 yards) while the Saints are 29th (27.9 yards).
Opponents have converted 43.6% (17-of-39) of their red zone possessions for touchdowns against the Saints, the lowest rate in the league.
51.9% of the scoring plays against New Orleans have been touchdowns, the lowest rate in the league.
The Buccaneers are averaging 5.2 scoring plays per game, the most in the league.
Tampa Bay is forcing 4.6 sacks plus turnovers per game, the most in the league.
48.6% (34-of-70) of Taysom Hill's pass attempts have come on non-first downs needing seven or more yards to go, the highest rate in the league.
Tom Brady has a league-leading 16 passing touchdowns on third down this season.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Tom Brady: Brady is coming off his seventh top-five scoring week of the season and the first time this season he has gone back-to-back games with over 350 passing yards. For good measure, he also added his second rushing touchdown of the season.

Brady did that against the top pass defense in the league in just about every category. This week, he’ll face a Saints team that has beaten him in three of the four games since he has joined the Buccaneers. Brady threw two interceptions when these teams met on Halloween, but he still threw four passing scores and averaged 9.4 yards per pass attempt in that game with 25.2 fantasy points. We know what we’re doing with Brady, locking him in as a QB1.

Taysom Hill: Hill got there again for fantasy last week, finishing as the QB4 (26.3 points) as he rushed for 46 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the fourth quarter. They all still count, but Hill has relied on some late-game magic in his two starts to get there as 48.4% of his fantasy points have come in the fourth quarter. We have flirted with danger in both starts, but the results all count the same.

Hill now has made six career starts and the lowest he has finished is QB13 and the fewest amount of fantasy points he has scored is 17.5 points.

Sean Payton has done a solid job against this Tampa Bay defense since Todd Bowles has been there, with the Saints scoring three or more touchdowns in three of those four games, including one earlier this season when Trevor Siemian had to take over in the first half when Hill was out with a concussion.

The Buccaneers just allowed 109 rushing yards to Josh Allen. Earlier in the season, they allowed 44 yards rushing and two scores to Jalen Hurts, and when these played in Week 8, Jameis Winston had 40 rushing yards before exiting the game. They also allowed 38 rushing yards to Justin Fields.

Tampa Bay did flood both Hurts and Fields as passers. Hill the passer does not inspire confidence, but in his small sample as a passer, he has actually been functional against the blitz (Tampa blitzes at the league’s second-highest rate). Against the blitz since the start of last season, Hill is 42-of-61 passing (68.9%) for 506 yards (8.3 Y/A).

At the end of the day, there is fragility with Hill since he has relied on rushing and late-game heroics to get there for fantasy. We also would be willingly starting a road quarterback with an 18-point team total in the fantasy playoffs. But Hill's extended work as a rusher have warranted treating him as a top streamer and option in 1QB formats. I would not play Hill over someone like Dak Prescott, but if I was relying Joe Burrow or Russell Wilson in recent weeks, those are options I would consider moving Hill in for.

Running Back

Leonard Fournette: Lenny stayed scoring on Sunday, turning 23 touches into 132 yards, capped with a 47-yard touchdown run. He handled 23-of-29 backfield touches, giving him 82.7% of the backfield touches over the past three games.

Fournette had another seven targets in the passing game, giving him 38 targets over this past five games, the most of all running backs over that span. With Giovani Bernard out for an extended period, Fournette’s pass catching role is locked up.

Fournette will need his receiving work and high value touches to carry him here. The Saints are allowing a league-low 3.37 yards per carry and 9.1 rushing points to opposing running backs. When these teams met earlier in the season, Fournette had eight carries for 26 yards and was the RB42, his only week outside of the top-16 scorers over his past eight games played.

Fournette’s receiving work and touchdown equity keep him in play as an RB1 attached to this offense, but this is the toughest draw he has had since facing this same team in Week 8.

Alvin Kamara: Kamara came off the shelf for the first time since Week 9 and handled a massive workload, turning 31 touches into 145 yards and a touchdown. With the Saints’ backfield shorthanded, Kamara handled 81.7% of the backfield touches after handling 70.9% and 51.5% in the two games after the Saints acquired Mark Ingram.

Kamara has an equally tough draw as Fournette since the Bucs are second in the league in allowing 9.2 rushing points per game, trailing only the Saints. Kamara grinded 22 touches into 76 yards when these teams played earlier season. In four meetings between these teams over the past two seasons, Kamara now has games of 67, 49, 105, and 76 total yards, but he has found the end zone in three of those four games.

The Bucs are 30th in receiving points allowed per game (13.8) to backfields for another lifeline for Kamara. Same as Fournette, we aren’t leaving this many touches on the table when a back can catch the ball. Despite the tougher matchup, Kamara is a lower-end RB1.

Wide Receiver

Chris Godwin (TRUST): Godwin has been a reception factory the past two weeks, pulling in 25-of-32 targets. Since Antonio Brown was lost due to injury in Week 7, Godwin is third among all wide receivers in expected fantasy points and in actual scoring output. He has four 100-yard games over those seven games while commanding 25.4% of the team targets.

Godwin caught 8-of-12 targets for 140 yards and a touchdown when these teams played in Week 8 and the Saints have struggled with interior wide receivers all season, ranking 30th in the league in points allowed per game (12.9) to slot receivers.

Mike Evans: Evans caught all six of his targets for 91 yards and his 11th touchdown on Sunday. Despite the strong line, Evans had just 13.0% of the team targets, giving him fewer than 20% of the team targets in five of the past six games.

Here, we have another chapter in one of our favorite rivalries going in the league. In nine career games with Marshon Lattimore on the field, Evans has reeled in 25-of-52 targets for 418 yards and four touchdowns. He does have one 7-147-1 haymaker game mixed in around those low points to remind us that Evans is capable of still providing a spike week at any moment regardless of the matchup, but when these two have battled, Lattimore has come out ahead more than Evans has.

In four games against each other since the start of last season, Evans has games of 1-2-1, 4-64-0, 1-3-1, and 2-48-1. Evans is capable of scoring on anyone, but I am handling him as a touchdown-dependent WR2.

Saints WRs: Marquez Callaway (85.7%) passed Tre’Quan Smith (75%) in route participation last week for the first time since Week 8. Callaway has not had more than 34 yards in a game since Week 5, so you are just praying for a touchdown. Smith did catch a touchdown when these teams played earlier in the season, but he is in the same touchdown-or-bust boat as he has averaged 35.5 yards per game since returning in Week 8 with two scores.

Tight End

Rob Gronkowski: Gronk turned in a modest 5-62-0 line against the Bills, but he did see another nine targets (19.6%), which was the eighth-best target share for all tight ends in Week 14. Gronk only played six snaps when these teams hooked up in Week 8 and has just three catches in his other three games against New Orleans. The Saints are third in the league in yards allowed per target (5.9 yards) to tight ends and fifth in touchdown rate (3.3%) allowed to the position.

That is a lot of strikes in terms of matchup, but you aren’t moving Gronk out of lineups for tight end streamer types based on his recent usage and scoring upside at a weak position such as tight end, even if he comes with added volatility.

Nick Vannett: Vannett was 13th among all tight ends in route participation (75%) in Week 14 and saw six targets come in his direction. Vannett still only has modest lines of 3-44-0, 3-48-0, and 1-11-1 over his past three games so he takes a step of faith attached to Hill, but if looking for a matchup carrot, Tampa Bay is allowing 6.3 receptions per game to opposing tight ends (30th).

More Week 15 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet: