Saints vs Buccaneers Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 9

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 9 New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sunday Night Football game.

• New Orleans is the last remaining team to have every game go over the game total (7-0 to the over).
• 79.2% of the touchdowns allowed by New Orleans have come via passing, the highest rate in the league.
• Opponents have converted 83.3% of their red zone opportunities for touchdowns against the Saints, the highest rate in the league.
• Alvin Kamara has accounted for 32.8% of the New Orleans non-passing fantasy points, the highest rate among all running backs. 
• New Orleans running backs are averaging a league-high 198.7 yards from scrimmage per game. 
• The Buccaneers allow 99.6 yards from scrimmage to opposing backfields, third in the league.
• Tampa Bay is last in the league in rate of runs to gain five or more yards (29.8%) on offense and first in rate of runs allowed to gain five or more yards on defense (23.5%).
• The Buccaneers are second in the league in plays of 20 or more yards offensively per game (4.7) and also second in plays of 20 or more yards allowed per game (3.0).

 

Trust = spike production for that player
Bust = down-week production for that player’s standards

Quarterback

Tom Brady (TRUST): Brady has been a top-10 scorer in four of his past six games, with the lone exceptions being games against the Bears and a blowout win over the Packers in which he threw a season-low 27 passes for 166 yards. Here, he draws a Saints defense that is allowing 20.3 passing points per game (29th) and are 31st in passing points allowed per attempt (0.59).

Every starting quarterback against the Saints has finished in the top-15 of weekly scoring as the Saints have allowed multiple touchdown passes in seven straight games, the longest active streak in the league. Brady had 20.5 fantasy points against the Saints in Week 1 (13.6 passing points) off of a condensed offseason. With the potential of having all of his weapons available while adding Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski playing much better than to open the season, Brady is a QB1.

Drew Brees: Brees has gotten rolling, with four QB1 scoring weeks over his past five games. Considering that his number one wide receiver this season has been a running back, Brees has made the most out of things. Especially the past two weeks against two defenses that were top-10 in passing points allowed per game and in the top-five in yards per pass attempt allowed with a skeleton crew at wide receiver each week. 

He will get his third-straight game against a defense in that territory as Tampa Bay is allowing just 12.7 passing points per game (seventh). Brees has also not been at his best in recent years visiting Tampa Bay, regardless of how good or bad their defense has been. Brees has been a QB1 in just one of his past seven trips to Tampa, averaging 13.9 fantasy points per game and 7.0 yards per pass attempt to go along with nine touchdowns and nine interceptions. 

That said, Brees is back to producing as a QB1 in poor climates, so he is tough to get away from as a fringe QB1 option, especially if the ghost of Michael Thomas makes an appearance.  

Running Back

Alvin Kamara: Kamara has been a top-10 scorer in every game this season. He is averaging 22.7 PPR points per game over the past three weeks while not even scoring a touchdown in any of those games. Averaging 18.4 receiving points per game, Kamara has accounted for 29.4% of the New Orleans receptions, the highest rate by far among running backs. 

Tampa Bay is allowing a league-low 2.7 yards per carry to backs, but they are allowing 12.7 receiving points per game to backfields, which ranks 23rd. The Saints have also been good at getting productive games out of Kamara against Tampa. With the Bucs having an elite run defense the past two seasons, Kamara has rushed for 62, 75, and 16 yards, but posted receiving lines of 6-62, 10-47, and 5-51. Back in Week 1, the Bucs held Kamara to 1.3 yards per carry, but he still added double-digit receiving points and scored two touchdowns. Kamara is still a set-and-forget RB1 in this matchup with a higher floor in formats that emphasize receiving output over rushing production.

Buccaneers RBs: We talked about it last week, but Leonard Fournette has a better role in this offense now that LeSean McCoy’s role has been folded into his. Fournette has run a pass route on 55.6% and 64.3% of the team drop backs the past two weeks, garnering 13 targets. Pair that with his complimentary rushing role and he is a safer bet than Ronald Jones per week in the early-down role he has. 

Last week, Jones lost a fumble, which opened the door for Fournette to take on even more rushing work. We have seen the Bucs go through spurts of yanking around Jones’s playing time, but even in his full role, this is a tough spot for Jones. The Saints are sixth in allowing 10.4 rushing points per game to backs and 3.6 yards per carry to backs (fifth). Jones ran 17 times for 66 yards in Week 1 and tallied 19 touches, but Fournette played just nine snaps. As home favorites, Jones is a touchdown-dependent RB3 while Fournette is a floor-based FLEX. 

Wide Receiver

Michael Thomas: Will this be the week Thomas finally returns to the lineup with the division potentially on the line? Who really knows given the way this season has gone for Thomas, but he did put in a few practices last week to give us some hope.  

Thomas secured just 3-of-5 targets for 17 yards when these teams played in Week 1. Tampa Bay is 11th in points allowed to opposing WR1 options (13.6) and have yet to allow a lead wideout to score a touchdown this season, including a slate of facing Thomas, Robby Anderson (9-109-0), Keenan Allen (8-62-0), Allen Robinson (10-90-0), and Davante Adams (6-61-0).  If Thomas returns, he will be a floor-based option.

Saints WRs: We should get the return of Emmanuel Sanders this week after he has missed the past two games after being placed on COVID-IR. We have had just one game in which Thomas, Sanders, and Tre’Quan Smith have played together. Smith actually out-snapped Sanders back in Week 1, but Sanders has been a far more tangible target for the Saints and fantasy asset for gamers. Smith has been a top-40 wideout in just one his past five games while Sanders was a top-30 scorer in each of his three games prior to being sidelined and still has more end zone targets (three) than Smith (two) despite the layoff. If the Saints are operating at full capacity, Sanders slides in as a WR3/FLEX with Smith as a WR5.

Mike Evans: In four games without Chris Godwin active, Evans at least five receptions and seven targets in each game, finishing all four weeks as a top-24 scorer. Securing 24-of-34 targets for 322 yards and four touchdowns in those games, Evans has reeled in 6-of-12 targets for 51 yards and three scores in his other four games. 

Evans has ghosted us a few times in this rivalry he has developed with Marshon Lattimore. Last season, he was goose-egged on three targets versus New Orleans in Week 5 and then came back with 4-69-0 on eight targets in Week 11 with Lattimore inactive. In six career games with Lattimore on the field, Evans has reeled in 18-of-39 targets for 303 yards and two touchdowns. He does have one 7-147-1 haymaker game mixed in around those low points to remind us that Evans is capable of still providing a spiked week at any moment regardless of the matchup, but Evans is a boom-or-bust WR3 that can jump up to WR2 status should Godwin sit out another week. 

Antonio Brown: Brown is eligible to make his Tampa Bay debut this week and while Bruce Arians was vague on his playing time, we should not be concerned with Brown’s ability to work with Tom Brady. Coming in cold with the Patriots a year ago, Brady targeted Brown eight times on 14 pass routes in their lone game together, connecting for four receptions and 56 yards with a touchdown. Brown will slide into Scotty Miller’s position on the offense, but could also play some slot should Godwin remain absent. 

There is some guesswork in projecting Brown out of the box and both parties will claim “we should have known” regardless of the outcome, but if I am treating Brown as an upside WR3 that I would start in more cases than not against other WR3 company. 

Chris Godwin: We will have to monitor Godwin’s availability early in the week to see if he can return from a broken index finger in Week 7. Godwin’s availability has impacted Evans this season, so we can assume he also will share an impact on Brown’s debut should he be able to return. When fully operational, I view the Buccaneers wideouts similar to the Pittsburgh wideouts, where all three will be top-36 options week-to-week, but the production will oscillate with someone likely being the odd-man-out any given week. 

So far this season, Godwin is averaging 7.3 targets per game, down from 8.6 a year ago while his 11.2 yards per catch is 4.3 yards lower than it was in 2019. Godwin has hardly been fully healthy, but his operating more as a strict near the line of scrimmage slot option. That can be fruitful here as the Saints are fielding Chauncey Gardner-Johnson in the slot, who is allowing a 110.1 rating on targets in his coverage. Keep tabs on Godwin this week, who is a fringe WR2/WR3 option.

Tight End

Jared Cook: Cook is doing his Jared Cook thing. He is 22nd at the position in receptions per game (3.2) and 21st in targets per game (4.8), but is averaging 13.1 yards per catch (ninth) and has four touchdowns (fourth) to keep him as a splash-play dependent TE1. The Bucs have allowed a TE1 in three straight games to Evan Engram (5-61-0), Darren Waller (6-50-1), and Jimmy Graham (3-33-1). In three games versus the Bucs with the Saints, Cook has posted lines of 5-80-0, 2-33-1, and 4-41-1.

Rob Gronkowski: Gronk has been a top-six scorer in each of the past three weeks. Finding the end zone in each of those games, Gronk is averaging 51.7 yards per game over his past six games. Gronk has averaged just 5.2 points per game in his weeks without a touchdown, but this is a solid week to chase him scoring. The Saints are allowing 5.9 receptions per game (28th) and a 9.5% touchdown rate (25th) to the position, but are ninth in yards per target (6.2) to the position. Continue to use Gronk as a TE1 option.

More Week 9 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:

GB at SF | NYG at WFT | HOU at JAX | CHI at TEN | CAR at KC | SEA at BUF | DET at MIN | DEN at ATL | BAL at IND | LVR at LAC | PIT at DAL | MIA at ARI | NO at TB | NE at NYJ