The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 11 New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles Sunday afternoon game.
| New Orleans | Rank | @ | Philadelphia | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | Spread | -1.5 | ||
| 21 | Implied Total | 22.5 | ||
| 24.7 | 13 | Points/Gm | 25.7 | 11 |
| 19.8 | 7 | Points All./Gm | 23.1 | 14 |
| 61.7 | 26 | Plays/Gm | 60.4 | 28 |
| 62.1 | 11 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 65 | 22 |
| 5.2 | 24 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.8 | 13 |
| 5.4 | 12 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.4 | 11 |
| 47.75% | 3 | Rush% | 47.85% | 2 |
| 52.25% | 30 | Pass% | 52.15% | 31 |
| 38.28% | 8 | Opp. Rush % | 44.62% | 26 |
| 61.72% | 25 | Opp. Pass % | 55.38% | 7 |
- Philadelphia has run the ball on 64% of their plays in neutral game script outside of the fourth quarter the past three weeks, the highest rate in the league. They were at 41% over the opening seven games of the season.
- Jalen Hurts has a 54.8% success rate per play over the past three weeks (first) as opposed to 46.6% prior (20th).
- Hurts is first in the NFL in completion rate over expectation over that span (+8.0%), as opposed to 21st prior (-0.8%).
- The Eagles now lead the league in expected points added per rushing attempt (0.14).
- The Saints are first in the league in expected points per rushing attempt defensively (0.14).
- The Saints are 31st in the league in percentage of rushing yardage gained on carries of 10 or more yards (31.3%).
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Jalen Hurts: The Eagles have reined in Hurts the past three weeks and he has no longer been reliant on jailbreak scenarios for his fantasy points. That has not officially slowed him down for fantasy as he still has been a top-12 scorer in each of the past two games, giving him a league-high nine QB1 scoring weeks. This while Philadelphia has called just 20 passing plays in the second half the past three weeks as opposed to 60 carries.
Hurts has benefited from leaguewide scoring being low in totality over the past two weeks, but he has still failed to score 18.0 fantasy points just twice on the year.
I fully do not expect the Eagles to be able to run the ball as successfully as they have the past three games here against the Saints, forcing some added dropbacks and scramble opportunities. The Saints are allowing just 14.6 passing points per game (12th), but they are allowing 7.8 yards per pass attempt (25th) and 12.3 yards per completion (27th). New Orleans has also allowed a rushing touchdown to a quarterback in each of the past two games and allowed 40 yards rushing to Taylor Heinicke and 27 yards rushing to Daniel Jones, the lone two mobile quarterbacks they have faced on the season. With the expected added passing volume, Hurts is still a QB1 option.
Trevor Siemian: Siemian has been the QB15 (15.9 points) and the QB4 (19.9 points) in his two starts by going full Jalen Hurts. In the first three quarters the past two weeks, Siemian is 26-of-48 (54.2%) passing for 318 yards (6.6 Y/A) with one touchdown while going 18-of-27 (66.7%) for 229 yards (8.5 Y/A) with three touchdowns in the fourth quarter.
The Eagles are not a defense to be scared of as they are 21st in points allowed per attempt (0.45) and are still allowing a league-high 73.4% completion rate to passers. Siemian has run pure on fourth quarter magic the past two weeks to keep him in play as a QB2 option based on his results and matchup, but there are still other quarterbacks I would stream over him if available this week.
Running Back
Eagles RBs: Philadelphia backs have combined for 427 yards on 91 carries with six touchdowns rushing over the past three weeks. Those games came against defenses that rank 29th, 32nd, and 23rd in DVOA against the run this season. The Saints are first, allowing 2.8 yards per carry to backs and a league-low 8.0 rushing points per game to the position.
We did Philadelphia in this same spot a year ago in Hurts' first career start and they were able to rack up 246 rushing yards, the most yards allowed on the ground by New Orleans in 2020. Miles Sanders produced 115 of those yards on 14 carries, highlighted by a 82-yard touchdown run.
Sanders was activated off injured reserve this week after missing the previous three games with an ankle injury. His returns muddies the waters a bit as Jordan Howard could be a goal line thorn moving forward, but Nick Sirianni did give Sanders a vote a confidence as his starting back when he was ready to return.
I would be hesitant using Sanders as more than a fringe FLEX option coming off his long layoff with Howard now relegated to touchdown or bust territory.
Mark Ingram: Alvin Kamara returned to practice on Wednesday for a limited session and then was a DNP on Thursday, which is a signal that they tested him out and the MCL injury he has did not fully respond to where they wanted. That sets up Ingram for another run as the lead back for the Saints.
With Kamara sidelined last week, Mark Ingram played a season-high 85% of the snaps and handled 90% of the backfield touches for the Saints. Ingram only rushed for 47 yards on 14 carries but found the end zone on the ground while catching 4-of-7 targets for 61 yards through the air. The Saints have not run the ball well over the past month regardless of who has been in the backfield, but when you are a back getting nearly every touch in your backfield and used in the passing game, there is a high floor to land on. The return of Tony Jones this week lowers Ingram getting that much of the work, but the the Eagles are a softer matchup than what the Saints had a week ago, ranking 28th in rushing points allowed per game (15.7) to backfields while also ranking 21st in receiving points allowed per game (12.0) to backs. With Kamara sidelined again in Week 11, Ingram is a fringe RB1 option.
Wide Receiver
DeVonta Smith: We are in the prime portion of the season to start seeing rookie bumps in production and Smith has delivered lines of 5-116-1 and 4-66-2 over the past two weeks on just six targets in each game since the Eagles have taken the air out of the ball. Despite the suppressed volume, Smith has seen 37.5% and 27.3% of the targets in those games. With more expected team volume given the Saints’ elite run defense, the raw targets will spike if Smith sustains that level of target volume. With that, we also could see more passing inefficiency that we saw from Hurts over the front half of the season as a potential result.
The Saints also have been solid against opposing lead wide receivers this season as a counter, allowing 13.8 points per game (11th) to opposing WR1 options. Smith is commanding the target share we are setting in lineups weekly as an upside receiver on the WR2/WR3 line in this matchup.
Saints WRs: The forced games script the Saints have played in the past two games has given a jolt to this receiving corps a bit as this group has four touchdown receptions the past two weeks after seven scores through seven games.
Marquez Callaway snagged a score in each game, and now has seven end zone targets on the season while the rest of the roster has seven. But Callaway also has just 25 and 37 yards in those games.
Tre’Quan Smith led the Saints last with seven targets (4-44-1) and ran a pass route on 90% of the snaps, compared to 77.5% for Callaway and 47.5% for Deonte Harris, who leads the team in targets (17), catches (11), and yards (152) with Siemian under center although he has not caught any of his five touchdown passes. The Saints wideouts have combined for five games reaching 70 yards through the air and Harris has three of them.
The Eagles do not give up big plays through the air, ranking third in the league in rate of completions allowed to gain 20 or more yards (8.7%) while they are allowing 11.6 yards per catch to wideouts (seventh in the league). Opposing wide receivers have scored just 37.6% of the points the Eagles have allowed, the lowest rate in the league.
Smith is the safest bet to make for volume since he is playing the most with Callaway and Harris the better upside plays given their end zone and downfield usage, but all three are WR4/FLEX options.
Tight End
Adam Trautman: Trautman has not finished higher than TE14 or posted more than 47 yards in a game yet on the season, but he has at least six targets in each of his past three games after being targeted 13 times over the opening six games of the season. Trautman does not carry a ton of streaming appeal, but for teams that are thin at the position due to injuries or byes, opposing tight ends have scored 26.2% of the points allowed by the Eagles, the highest rate allowed to the position in the league.
Dallas Goedert: After exiting last week's game with a concussion, Goedert was back at practice this week. Goedert caught two passes for 28 yards on just 13 snaps. Goedert only secured 3-of-6 targets for 43 yards in Week 9, but he was overthrown on a 45-yard touchdown where he was wide open. He also still received 37.5% of the team targets, giving him 40.6% of the team targets in his past two full games. Goedert has been in route on 85.6% of the dropbacks while healthy since Zach Ertz was traded, third among tight ends over that span.
The Saints have faced 7.8 targets per game (seventh most) to tight ends, but are fourth in yards allowed per target (5.3 yards) with just one touchdown allowed to those options. There is not matchup elevation here, but Goedert's target share is a premium and we are expecting the Eagles to have to pass more on Sunday than the past three weeks, still leaving him as a TE1 option.
More Week 11 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:
NE at ATL| GB at MIN | BAL at CHI | WFT at CAR | IND at BUF | DET at CLE | SF at JAX | HOU at TEN | MIA at NYJ | NO at PHI | CIN at LVR | ARI at SEA | DAL at KC | PIT at LAC | NYG at TB