The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 7 New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks Monday Night Football game.
| New Orleans | Rank | @ | Seattle | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | Spread | 4.5 | ||
| 24 | Implied Total | 19.5 | ||
| 25.4 | 10 | Points/Gm | 23.3 | 18 |
| 18.2 | 3 | Points All./Gm | 24.8 | 20 |
| 57 | 31 | Plays/Gm | 55.8 | 32 |
| 66.2 | 24 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 72.8 | 32 |
| 5.2 | 24 | Off. Yards/Play | 6.2 | 6 |
| 5.3 | 11 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.9 | 23 |
| 54.74% | 1 | Rush% | 42.69% | 15 |
| 45.26% | 32 | Pass% | 57.31% | 18 |
| 35.65% | 4 | Opp. Rush % | 43.94% | 24 |
| 64.35% | 29 | Opp. Pass % | 56.06% | 9 |
- Seattle is 27th in passing yardage differential (-59.0 yards) compared to their opponent while New Orleans is 32nd (-105.6 yards).
- The Seahawks are averaging 4.8 plays per possession, the fewest in the league.
- The Saints are averaging 5.2 plays per drive, 31st in the league.
- Opposing teams have converted just 35.7% (5-of-14) of their red zone possessions for touchdowns against the Saints, the lowest rate in the league.
- New Orleans has converted 92.9% (13-of-14) of their red zone possessions for touchdowns, the highest rate in the league.
- Seattle has allowed 27 red zone possessions, the most in the league.
- Jameis Winston has completed 13-of-15 passes (86.7%) for nine touchdowns and zero interceptions inside of the red zone this season.
- Winston’s 60.0% touchdown rate on red zone pass attempts leads the league. League average is 26.4%.
- The Saints have produced an offensive play of 20 or more yards once every 28.5 offensive plays, the lowest rate in the league. League average is once every 14.8 plays.
Trust = spike production for that player
Bust = down-week production for that player’s standards
Quarterback
Jameis Winston: Winston is having one of the weirder starts to season that I can remember, which is saying something given his resume. Winston has two top-five scoring weeks on the year in Week 1 and Week 5 surrounding weeks as the QB27, QB23, and QB26. Winston leads all quarterbacks in touchdown rate (10.3%) and as a byproduct, is second among all quarterbacks in passing points per attempt (0.67). He also has averaged 9.8 yards and 9.3 yards per pass attempt the past two games. He has elite red zone numbers as stated above, but his team is outright hiding him as a passer. Facing pressure, Winston has completed just 41.7% of his passes for 5.3 Y/A, but has eight touchdown passes under pressure, which leads the league even with a bye factored in. It has been a peculiar ride, even for Winston.
This week, Winston faces a Seattle defense that is mid-pack in points allowed per attempt (0.47, 18th), but they are 24th in passing points allowed per game since they have faced the sixth-most attempts per game (39.0). Winston has not thrown the ball more than 30 times in a game and has thrown more than 23 passes just once. With so much bizarre efficiency from Winston, what will win out here if they do limit his passing volume again? I want to suggest playing him while also believing a chunk of his output is completely fraudulent. More signs point towards the latter and this game total unlikely goes wild with Geno Smith on the other side, leaving Winston as a boom-or-bust QB2.