In Saturday night’s Showdown, the San Francisco 49ers visit Lambo to take on the Green Bay Packers. For a breakdown of this game, check out Rich Hribar’s Fantasy Football Worksheet.

The Packers are near 6-point favorites and will likely be over-rostered by the field, especially in 4-2 builds. I will update with roster strategy once exposure projections are available. 

Strategy

Rosters with five Packers are expected to be used >9% compared to slightly >1% for five 49ers. Four Packers are >37% while four 49ers are less than a third of that. The majority should be 3-3 builds at almost 40%. The big underdog leverage we've taken advantage of all season long is available once again.

Davante Adams will be the most rostered, approaching 20% CPT and >71% total. Aaron Rodgers (<15%), Deebo Samuel (<12%) and A.J. Dillon (>10%) are the others above 10% for CPT. I see plenty of contrarian CPT options for trying to differentiate, including Aaron Jones, Eli Mitchell, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle , and Jimmy Garoppolo. When stacking San Fransisco players, a build rule to consider is using at most of two of Samuel, Aiyuk and Kittle. Garoppolo probably needs a few TDS to get there and is unlikely to put up big yardage, so he should correlate negatively with Mitchell and their rushing attack.

DK Values

  • A.J. Dillon ($5000)
  • Eli Mitchell ($8200)

DK Leverage

  • Anyone $4800 or less
  • GB pass-catchers besides Adams

DK Build Ideas

  • Max 1 DST, Max 1 K
  • Max 2 depth WR/TE/RB
  • Max 2 of Samuel, Aiyuk and Kittle
  • Negatively correlate Garoppolo and Mitchell, especially if one is CPT
  • If CPT QB, include one depth option in stack 
  • If CPT RB, negative boost opposing DST/K
  • If CPT WR/TE boost team QB and force at least 1 QB (either team)
  • Cumulative ownership under 250%
  • Leave salary unspent 

FD Values

  • Randall Cobb ($6000) – Too cheap for a starting WR
  • Jauan Jennings ($8000)

FD Leverage

  • Allen Lazard ($11,000) – Overpriced, especially compared to other GB WRs
  • A.J. Dillon – priced too closely to Aaron Jones

FD Build Ideas

  • No K or TE at MVP
  • Focus on 3-2 build construction
  • No solo CPT in 1-4 construction
  • Negative boost opposing QBs (Lineups with both only win 30%)
  • If WR CPT, boost QB
  • QB is overused but RB and WR are underutilized at MVP
  • Don’t stack 3 pass catchers from the same team
  • Don’t force the max salary

For more optimizer build rules to consider, check out the list for each DK and FD here.