The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 11 matchup between the 49ers and Seahawks.
Find a breakdown of every Week 11 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Seattle | Rank | @ | San Francisco | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | Spread | -6.5 | ||
| 22 | Implied Total | 28.5 | ||
| 23.3 | 15 | Points/Gm | 25.9 | 7 |
| 24.6 | 23 | Points All./Gm | 22.4 | 17 |
| 63.6 | 9 | Plays/Gm | 63 | 13 |
| 64.6 | 27 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 59.4 | 10 |
| 5.7 | 12 | Off. Yards/Play | 6.5 | 2 |
| 5.5 | 23 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.1 | 8 |
| 35.14% | 30 | Rush% | 47.62% | 9 |
| 64.86% | 3 | Pass% | 52.38% | 24 |
| 45.44% | 19 | Opp. Rush % | 41.87% | 10 |
| 54.56% | 14 | Opp. Pass % | 58.13% | 23 |
- The 49ers have 19 more plays of 20-plus yards and 15 more plays of 30-plus yards than their opponents, the largest margins in the league.
- San Francisco has the most passing plays that have gained 30 or more yards (21), the most through 10 weeks since the 2019 Chiefs (25).
- The 49ers have a 49.2% success rate on passing plays (6th), while Seattle is 8th (48%).
- The Seahawks have a 32.3% success rate on rushing plays, 31st in the league.
- San Francisco averages 1.8 more yards per play on first down than their opponent, the largest differential in the league.
- Seattle averages 1.6 fewer yards per play on first down than their opponent, 31st in the league.
- The 49ers have converted a league-low 54.5% (12-of-22) of their goal-to-go possessions. The league rate is 72.3%.
- The Seahawks have converted 46.3% (9-of-16), 29th in the league.
- Seattle averages 2.41 points per drive on the road (7th) instead of 1.57 per drive at home (28th).
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Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Brock Purdy (TRUST): Purdy has ripped off four straight QB1 scoring weeks, with three closing as the QB6 or higher.
He is coming off a season-high 353 yards passing against Tampa Bay, averaging 9.8 yards per pass attempt.
The start of that QB1 run came in Seattle back in Week 6.
In the first matchup between these teams, Purdy scored 24.1 points, matching a season-high with 3 touchdown passes.
Purdy is still averaging 8.8 Y/A this season (2nd behind Lamar Jackson), but the one area he has lagged in compared to his career rates is in the touchdown department.
Part of that is natural regression from lofty rates in 2022 and 2023, but just like the first time these teams played, this is a matchup to cash in some inverse regression to the mean from his 2024 numbers.
I still show Purdy 2.9 passing touchdowns below expectations.
He is 4th in the NFL in red zone pass attempts (50) and 4th in passes thrown into the end zone (28).
Seattle faces a league-high 5.7 red zone passes per game.
The Seahawks have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in five of their past six games.
Geno Smith: Smith comes out of the bye as the league leader in passing yards per game (284.4).
He also leads the NFL in pass attempts per game (38).
The one area where he has run into bad luck is in the touchdown department.
Smith's touchdown rate is 3.2% (25th) after rates of 4% in 2023 and 5.2% in 2022.
He has completed just 5-of-22 passes (22.7%) into the end zone, 32nd in the league.
Inside the 5-yard line, Smith is 0-of-8 passing.
Smith has thrown multiple touchdown passes in two of his past three games, so we are finally starting to see a shift in that expected regression.
Smith is a volume-based QB2 with added upside if we can get those scores.
Based on his history in this matchup, this is a more challenging spot to expect those touchdowns.
The 49ers have his number.
Smith is 0-5 against the 49ers with Seattle, throwing 4 touchdown passes in those games.
Smith has yet to finish higher than QB15 in any of those starts.
That includes a QB21 (12.5 points) in this matchup in Week 6.
In that game, Smith did have 52 pass attempts and 312 yards, but only one touchdown pass with two interceptions.
Running Back
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Learn MoreMore Week 11 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Commanders @ Eagles | Thursday Night Football |
| Packers @ Bears | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ Lions | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Vikings @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Raiders @ Dolphins | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Rams @ Patriots | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Browns @ Saints | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Colts @ Jets | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Ravens @ Steelers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Falcons @ Broncos | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Seahawks @ 49ers | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Chiefs @ Bills | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Bengals @ Chargers | Sunday Night Football |
| Texans @ Cowboys | Monday Night Football |