The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 7 matchup between the Falcons and Seahawks.
Find a breakdown of every Week 7 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Seattle | Rank | @ | Atlanta | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Spread | -3.0 | ||
| 23.75 | Implied Total | 26.75 | ||
| 24.3 | 13 | Points/Gm | 24.8 | 11 |
| 25.0 | 25 | Points All./Gm | 22.5 | 15 |
| 65.8 | 3 | Plays/Gm | 60.7 | 18 |
| 62.2 | 17 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 64.8 | 27 |
| 5.7 | 12 | Off. Yards/Play | 6.1 | 7 |
| 5.5 | 18 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.2 | 10 |
| 31.65% | 32 | Rush% | 40.11% | 22 |
| 68.35% | 1 | Pass% | 59.89% | 11 |
| 46.65% | 20 | Opp. Rush % | 49.87% | 28 |
| 53.35% | 13 | Opp. Pass % | 50.13% | 5 |
- 23.4% of Atlanta's offensive plays have gained 10 or more yards, fourth in the league.
- 22.8% of Seattle's offensive plays have gained 10 or more yards, sixth in the league.
- Since Week 1, Atlanta has averaged 2.37 points per drive (9th).
- 38.3% of Atlanta's set of downs reach third down, third in the league behind the Ravens (36.2%) and Lions (38.2%).
- Seattle has a 48.5% success rate on passing plays (7th) compared to a 36.0% success rate on rushing plays (28th).
- 74.1% of Seattle's yardage has come via passing, second in the NFL behind Dallas (77.1%).
- The Seahawks average 1.7 yards less than their opponent on 1st down, ahead of only the Browns (-1.8).
- The Falcons allow 2.8 sacks plus takeaways per game, sixth in the league.
- The Seahawks allow 4.8 sacks plus turnovers per game, which is 28th in the league.
- The Falcons only average 2.0 sacks plus takeaways per game, 31st in the NFL.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Geno Smith: Smith has been a top-10 scoring quarterback in four games this season with down weeks as QB22 and QB21 mixed in.
What makes Smith appealing as a fringe QB1 fantasy option is that we have a tight matchup indoors with a high game total and Seattle just winging the ball around.
The Seahawks are third in the league in plays per game and have the NFL's highest dropback rate (70.1%).
Smith leads the league in dropbacks per game (46.2).
He has thrown the ball 40 or more times in three straight games and 34 or more times in his past five games.
What is wild about that is that Smith has not yet thrown multiple touchdown passes in a game this season.
He has a 2.4% touchdown rate, well below the 4.4% league base rate. He has thrown 4.6 touchdowns below expectations, the fewest in the league.
And despite that, Smith has four top-10 weeks.
We will eventually give up some dropbacks when Seattle can run the ball, but Smith should be a good bet to have touchdown regression toward the mean.
Smith has been at his best from a clean pocket, something this offensive line has impacted.
Without pressure, Smith has completed 77.9% of his passes (4th) for 7.9 yards per pass attempt (12th),\.
When pressured, Smith has completed 52.3% of his passes (11th) for 5.6 Y/A (19th).
Even this line should be able to help him out here in this matchup.
Atlanta is 28th in pressure rate (28.5%) and dead last in sack rate (2.6%). Smith has not faced a defense this low in pressure rate this season.
Despite failing to pressure passers, Atlanta has defended the pass well, allowing 6.3 Y/A (6th) and 11.6 passing points per game (10th).
They have done a lousy job of allowing quarterbacks a league-high 37.8 rushing yards per game.
They have faced Justin Fields (57 yards) and Jalen Hurts (85 yards), but Patrick Mahomes (17 yards), Baker Mayfield (42 yards), and Andy Dalton (21 yards) have also had success on the ground.
Smith is rushing for 24.3 yards per game, his most since his rookie season.
Kirk Cousins: Cousins had a mid-outing on Sunday in Carolina as the running game took center stage for the Falcons.
Cousins ended the week QB20 (12.5 points), completing 19-of-30 passes for 225 yards and a touchdown.
Cousins has been QB20 or lower in four of his six starts this season with spike weeks as the QB8 and QB1.
It's the reverse of what we just had with Geno Smith.
This implied game environment is appealing, and the matchup is good enough to go back to Cousins as a streamer, but I prefer to use him as a QB2 and absorb the spike weeks.
Especially since Cousins does not run at all, those weeks will have to be propelled by high-end pass efficiency.
We could have that here.
Seattle has allowed three consecutive QB1 scoring weeks to Jared Goff (27.2 points), Daniel Jones (22.1 points), and Brock Purdy (24.1 points).
They have been banged up but had opened the year against Bo Nix, Jacoby Brissett, and Skylar Thompson.
They are likely not as bad as this recent stretch, but those opening three games did not set the proper bar for expectations.
Running Back
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Learn MoreMore Week 7 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Broncos @ Saints | Thursday Night Football |
| Patriots vs. Jaguars | Sunday -- 9:30 a.m. ET (London) |
| Seahawks @ Falcons | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Titans @ Bills | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bengals @ Browns | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Texans @ Packers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Dolphins @ Colts | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Lions @ Vikings | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Eagles @ Giants | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Raiders @ Rams | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Panthers @ Commanders | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Chiefs @ 49ers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Jets @ Steelers | Sunday Night Football |
| Ravens @ Bucs | Monday Night Football |
| Chargers @ Cardinals | Monday Night Football |