As part of the Sharp Football Draft Kit, Raymond Summerlin is posting a fantasy football preview for all 32 NFL teams.
This preview includes advanced stats, the fantasy football outlook for Geno Smith, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ken Walker, and every other notable Seahawk, and in-depth analysis of the coaching staff, passing game, and rushing attack.
Find a link to every team preview in our Draft Kit Hub.
Highlights:
- Seattle was eighth with a 1.5 percent pass rate over expected and had the fifth-highest neutral pass rate last season. They were 18th and 24th in those metrics in 2021.
- After being targeted at least 20 yards down the field on over 20% of his opportunities each of his first three years in the league, DK Metcalf was targeted 20 yards or more down the field on 12.1% of his chances in 2022.
- Ken Walker was third in the NFL in carries (205), fifth in rushing yards (904), and tied for fifth in rushing touchdowns (8) despite missing a game from Week 6 on last season.
2022 Seahawks Stats (NFL Rank):
- Points: 407 (9th)
- Total Offense: 5,976 (12th)
- Plays: 1,044 (22nd)
- Offensive TDs: 42 (9th)
- Points Per Drive: 2.12 (10th)
- EPA+ Per Play: 1.3 (12th)
- Situation Neutral Pace: 30.85 seconds (13th)
2023 Seahawks Coaching Staff:
- Head Coach: Pete Carroll
- Offensive Coordinator: Shane Waldron
Seattle lost QBs coach Dave Canales to the Bucs, but Shane Waldron will be back for his third season coordinating the offense.
Following the Russell Wilson trade, many including me expected the Seahawks to lean even more into the run.
That is not what happened.
They were eighth with a 1.5 percent pass rate over expected and had the fifth-highest neutral pass rate. They were 18th and 24th in those metrics in 2021.
Those numbers show the passing volume was not a function of game script. They let Geno Smith cook, and he whipped up a Comeback Player of the Year award.
With Smith back and a first-round rookie receiver in the door, there are not many reasons to expect a different approach moving forward.
2022 Seahawks Passing Stats:
- Dropbacks: 651 (11th)
- Neutral Pass Rate: 59.2% (5th)
- Pass Rate Over Expected: 1.5% (8th)
- Pressure Rate Allowed: 22.5% (20th)
- ESPN Pass Block Win Rate: 63% (8th)
2023 Seahawks Passing Game Preview:
The Seahawks will face the 14th-toughest passing schedule based on 2022 efficiency numbers.
- QB: Geno Smith, Drew Lock
- WR: DK Metcalf, Dareke Young
- WR: Tyler Lockett, Cody Thompson
- WR: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Dee Eskridge (suspended)
- TE: Noah Fant, Will Dissly
The interesting thing about Geno Smith’s Comeback Player of the Year season is it did not look much different from a rate perspective than what he did on a smaller sample in 2021.
2021: 68.4% completion rate, 7.4 yards per attempt, 5.3% TD rate, 1.1% INT rate, 0.03 EPA per play
2022: 69.8% completion rate, 7.5 yards per attempt, 5.2% TD rate, 1.9% INT rate, 0.02 EPA per play
That consistency over two years, albeit on 111 dropbacks in 2021, offers some confidence last year was not a fluke.
If that is true, Smith is being underdrafted this season.
Smith finished as the QB9 in per-game scoring last year among qualifying quarterbacks and was a QB1 in 10 of his 17 games.
He tied with Patrick Mahomes for the number of games with multiple passing touchdowns (12).
He rushed for 366 yards and a touchdown, good enough for QB13 in per-game rushing fantasy points.
Smith now has a new weapon in Jaxon Smith-Njigba, something that should open up more 11 personnel, and a young offensive line that projects to get better.
Currently the QB15, Smith is a great pick in 2QB formats or for those who wait on the position.
Seattle started to use DK Metcalf as a true No. 1 receiver in 2022.
After being targeted at least 20 yards down the field on over 20% of his opportunities each of his first three years in the league, that number fell to 12.1% in 2022.
His target rate in both the short and intermediate areas jumped up, his air yards per target dropped to a career-low 11.21, and he set a career-high with 141 targets.
Unfortunately, the fantasy points did not follow that usage increase. Metcalf averaged just 10.7 half-PPR points per game last season (WR27) after posting 12.2 in 2021 and 14.4 in 2020.
A big reason for that decrease was a lack of touchdowns.
Metcalf scored 22 touchdowns in 2020 and 2021 combined, but he found the end zone just six times last season.
He was targeted in the end zone 23 times last year, however, compared to just 15 in 2021 and 18 in 2020.
According to PFF, Metcalf fell 4.5 touchdowns under expectation. Those scores would have put him right back into that mid-range WR2 area.
Unfortunately, Metcalf is not coming at any discount following last season, and his WR15 ADP looks about right.
Despite finishing better than Metcalf in per-game fantasy scoring in three of their four seasons together including last year, Tyler Lockett has been cheaper than his younger counterpart in each of the last three seasons.
Now he also finds himself behind Smith-Njigba, who is being drafted as the WR32 to Lockett’s WR33 ADP.
The disrespect makes more sense this year.
Lockett is nearing the age plateau — he will be 31 in September — has new talented target competition, and outshot his expected touchdown total last season.
He was still the WR25 in expected fantasy points, however, and did not show any signs of decline — 1.95 yards per route run, targeted on 22% of his routes.
Those concerns are already baked into this price, and Lockett has proven time and again he can put up WR2 numbers on a roughly 20% target share.
*Preseason Update: Jaxon Smith-Njigba underwent wrist surgery late in August and is unlikely to be ready for Week 1.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba likely would not have been available at No. 20 overall if he did not miss almost the entire 2022 college season.
Playing with two receivers that proved to be elite prospects in their rookie years (Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave), Smith-Njigba posted 4.01 yards per route run and dominated even compared to those two first-round picks in 2021.
His immediate fantasy profile would look much better if he had not been drafted to a team with Metcalf and Lockett already on the depth chart, but it is possible he simply establishes himself as a better option as a rookie.
ESPN’s Dan Graziano recently called him “a legitimate sleeper candidate for Offensive Rookie of the Year” and added, “For fantasy football purposes, I wouldn't just assume he's going to be Seattle's ‘No. 3' receiver or that he'll be brought along slowly because he's a rookie.”
That potential is why JSN is drafted around and often ahead of Lockett in early fantasy drafts.
That price could certainly work out given the rookie’s talent, but it would be an easier bet to make a round or two later.
At tight end, Noah Fant led the group last season with 50 catches for 486 yards and 4 touchdowns, but Will Dissly contributed 34 catches for 349 yards and 3 scores while Colby Parkinson got involved for 25 catches for 322 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Fant easily ran the most routes of that group, which is the most important thing for fantasy purposes, but he was still 23rd among all tight ends in routes run.
Given how many snaps the other tight ends play, it is tough to get excited about Fant outside of deeper leagues.
2022 Seahawks Rushing Stats:
- Rushing Attempts – Scrambles: 391 (21st)
- Yards Before Contact Per Attempt: 3.1 (8th)
- Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Line Yards: 4.04 (30th)
- ESPN’s Run Block Win Rate: 71% (16th)
2023 Seahawks Running Game Preview:
The Seahawks will face the 10th-toughest rushing schedule based on 2022 efficiency numbers.
- RB: Ken Walker, Zach Charbonnet, DeeJay Dallas, Kenny McIntosh
- OL: Charles Cross, Damien Lewis, Evan Brown, Phil Hayes, Abraham Lucas
On the surface, the Seahawks drafting Zach Charbonnet in the second round a year after selecting Ken Walker in the same round is a bit surprising, especially since Walker had a good rookie season.
With Rashaad Penny out from Week 6 on last season, Walker was third in the NFL in carries (205), fifth in rushing yards (904), and tied for fifth in rushing touchdowns (8) despite missing a game.
The underlying numbers, however, showed a boom-or-bust running profile that was expected given Walker’s college production.
12.7% of his runs gained 10 or more yards, 17th out of 66 qualified backs, but his 31.1% success rate ranked 60th while 23.7% of his carries failed to gain yardage (63rd).
Charbonnet had a completely different profile at UCLA. In 2022, he failed to gain yardage on just 9.7% of his carries.
Perhaps the Seahawks want a more reliable short-yardage option after Walker scored 2 touchdowns on 12 goal-to-go runs last season and converted on just 47.8% of his third-down carries (27th).
If that is the case, it would be a disaster for Walker’s fantasy value even if he maintains the majority of the work between the 20s.
Of course, seven of Walker’s touchdowns were 10 yards or more last year, and he projects as the kind of back that should score from distance regularly.
As expected, Walker also struggled as a receiver, finishing with 0.67 yards per route run and -2.14 air yards per target.
Charbonnet also could help in that area after catching 51 passes over his final two years in college, but he had a -0.9 aDOT last season, suggesting he is also more of a dump-off option than a real threat in the passing game.
It is tough to call Walker a “dead zone” running back because of his big-play ability and demonstrated upside with the backfield to himself last season – RB9 in per-game scoring from Week 6 on – but there are some serious concerns in his profile.
As for Charbonnet, it would not be a shock if he is the primary pass catcher and gets goal-line opportunities in what projects as a good offense.
His RB34 price tag is a bit expensive given the players like Antonio Gibson and Rashaad Penny going around him, but he has a path to exceeding that cost.
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