Steelers vs Bills Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 14

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 14 Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills Sunday Night Football game.

Pittsburgh	Rank	@	Buffalo	Rank
-1.5		Spread	1.5
24.5		Implied Total	23
27.8	7	Points/Gm	27.8	8
17.6	1	Points All./Gm	25.5	18
66.4	7	Plays/Gm	63.6	20
61.7	7	Opp. Plays/Gm	64.9	17
37.5%	27	Rush%	39.8%	19
62.5%	6	Pass%	60.2%	14
38.8%	9	Opp. Rush %	41.7%	16
61.2%	24	Opp. Pass %	58.3%	17

The Bills have led for 55.6% of their offensive snaps this season (first) while the Steelers have led for 53.8% (second).
Buffalo has scored on 52.4% of their possessions (second).
Opponents have scored on 26.2% of their possessions against Pittsburgh, the lowest rate in the league.
Opponents have a 9.5-yard average depth of target against Pittsburgh, the highest in the league.
Opponents have a 7.0-yard average depth of target against Buffalo, the lowest in the league.
The Steelers are 30th in the league in yards allowed per completion (11.8 yards), but are first in completion rate allowed (56.1%).
Buffalo is second in the league in passing rate on first down plays outside of the fourth quarter (60%).
The Steelers have thrown the ball on early downs outside of the fourth quarter 66% of the time outside of the fourth quarter Weeks 8-13 (second) after 53% of the time Weeks 1-7 (18th).

Quarterback

Josh Allen: Allen was on fire on Monday night, completing 32-of-40 passes (80%) for 375 yard and four touchdowns. Allen has now been a top-five scorer in seven of his 12 games this season.

With an elite ceiling, there has not been much middle ground. The other five weeks Allen has been the QB15 or lower.

He has his hands full here against a Pittsburgh team that is third in passing points allowed per game (12.3), second in points allowed per pass attempt (.36), third in yards allowed per pass attempt (6.6 Y/A), and first in completion rate allowed (56.1%). The Steelers have not allowed a QB1 scoring week on the season, with the best fantasy opponents being Deshaun Watson, Lamar Jackson, and Ryan Tannehill.

When it comes to facing the Steelers, it is all about how you handle the blitz. So far this season, Allen sees his completion percentage go from 73.3% to 63.9% versus the blitz and his yards per attempt go from 8.5 Y/A to 7.0 Y/A when teams send extra defenders. Those totals are still among the league’s best versus the blitz, but there is some slight decline from his gaudy numbers when not pressed. The Steelers blitz 37.2% of the time, seventh in the league.

It was under different circumstances a year ago, but Allen completed just 13-of-25 passes for 139 yards with one touchdown against Pittsburgh a year ago. Allen is a tough sit and it is unlikely I would stream for him given his rushing ability and demonstrated ceiling, but anticipating this being a probable ceiling week is lofty while he has shown no middle ground.

Ben Roethlisberger: Roethlisberger has averaged 5.9 yards per pass attempt the past three weeks, but the surplus of volume he has had has kept his floor as a high QB2 option. Roethlisberger has thrown 42 or more passes in five straight games, but has posted just two QB1 scoring weeks over that span.

The Bills can be run on, but the Steelers have swerved into the short passing game being their offensive system. Buffalo faces the lowest aDOT in the league and that should continue here as Roethlisberger’s 7.3 aDOT is 27th in the NFL. It is tough for Roethlisberger to completely flatline for fantasy with the amount of volume this offense has while that type of volume always leaves the door open to have a big game. Big Ben is a high-end QB2 in a game that still can shoot out as an outcome.

Running Back

James Conner: Conner has stated that he is returning this week after missing the past two weeks due to COVID, but monitor his practice availability regardless.

With Conner on the field last in Week 11, he bounced back from an efficiency stance, rushing for 89 yards and 6.8 yards per carry after 105 yards and 2.8 YPC over his previous three games, but once again, his opportunities were limited in a huge victory as he rushed just 13 times. After 17.8 carries per game Weeks 2-7, Conner has carried 15 times or fewer in each of the past four games with nine, 13, and 13 carries in his past three games.

Buffalo is allowing 4.5 YPC to backfields (23rd) and 15.3 rushing points allowed per game to backs (25th) to offer some efficiency regardless of volume, but Conner is a lower RB2 with his uneven usage.

Bills RBs: For the first time since Week 7, Devin Singletary out-snapped Zack Moss. After Moss lost an early game fumble, Singletary played 62 snaps to just 11 for Moss. Despite that being the first game Singletary has bested Moss in snaps, it is the second game in that he has out-touched Moss. Moss has now been an RB2 or better in just two games all season, with both games coming attached to a touchdown. In his six games without a score, he has been the average RB50 with one game hitting double-digit points without a touchdown.

Singletary has held a steadier floor, but almost no ceiling since he has just one touchdown all season. The Steelers are seventh in rushing points allowed per game (11.2) and third in receiving points allowed per game (6.7) to backfields, keeping both Buffalo backs as FLEX options with Moss needing a touchdown.

Wide Receiver

Stefon Diggs: Diggs kept his streak alive as the only wide receiver to have double-digit PPR points in every game this season as he caught 10-of-11 targets for 92 yards Monday night. In the four games with John Brown inactive, Diggs now has 16, 11, nine, and 11 targets, good for 30.5% of the team total in those games. The Steelers are sixth in the league in points allowed per game to opposing WR1 options (13.1) and just shut down Terry McLaurin, but Diggs has held too high of a floor to run away from as a WR1. The only real shade we can throw at Diggs is that he has scored just one touchdown over his past six games.

Diontae Johnson: A lot has been made about Johnson’s league-high 10 drops, but he has received double-digit targets in five straight games and in eight of his nine full games played. That volume has led to Johnson having at least six receptions in eight of those nine games. Like the 49ers a week ago with Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, the Steelers present a tough assignment for the Bills if they strictly want to use Tre’Davious White to shadow a single wideout. Johnson remains a high-floor PPR WR2 and a WR3 in standard formats.

Chase Claypool: Claypool played just 44% of the snaps last week (his lowest rate since Week 2) after he had a scare on special teams early in the game. With that snap reduction, Claypool saw just four targets come his way (2-38-0), his fewest in a game since Week 7. Claypool is still the best for a touchdown here with 10 on the season, but he has not cleared 70 yards receiving in a game since Week 6. That said, last week was the first time Claypool was not a WR3 or better since Week 7.

We have seen some teams treat Claypool as the feature wideout and use their best corner on him over Johnson, so this could be where White ends up the most often. Make sure Claypool is fine at practice throughout the week to go back to as a WR3.

JuJu Smith-Schuster: Smith-Schuster is coming off a laughable game, even for PPR standards, catching 7-of-10 targets for just 28 yards. Smith-Schuster has now posted yardage totals of 19, 37, and 28 yards the past three weeks. But we do know one place where White will not be in this game and it is in the slot, where JuJu runs 82% of his routes. White has played just nine coverage snaps in the slot this season.

Buffalo has allowed double-digit scoring to slot heavy options in Cooper Kupp (9-107-1), Jamison Crowder (7-115-1), Keenan Allen (4-40-1), Isaiah Ford (7-76-0), and Hunter Renfrow (5-57-0) on the season. Smith-Schuster leads the Steelers with seven end zone targets on top of having the best of the matchup to be the top-ranked Pittsburgh wideout for Week 14.

Cole Beasley: Beasley has dropped true hammers this season, turning in four 100-yard games and three WR1 scoring weeks for what is thought of as a floor-based option. In the four games that Brown has missed, Beasley has produced lines of 6-53-0, 11-112-0, 2-25-0, and 9-130-1 on 21.4% of the team's targets. The Steelers have not been overly pressed by top slot options, but have allowed positive games to Willie Snead (5-106-0), Randall Cobb (4-95-1), and CeeDee Lamb (4-71-1) this season to keep Beasley in play as a WR3 option with Brown still sidelined.

Gabriel Davis: In the four games Brown has missed outright, Davis has run a pass route on 100%, 97.9%, 100%, and 97.5% of the team dropbacks. In those games, he has had games of 5-58-0, 1-11-0, 3-79-1, and 3-68-1. With a team-leading 16.0-yard aDOT, Davis is a big play option. The Steelers do not give up a lot of completions, but when they do, they have been splash plays, allowing 11.8 yards per completed pass, which is 30th in the league. Davis is a better single-game DFS play than a seasonal one, but is a boom-or-bust FLEX for those chasing that splash play.

Tight End

Eric Ebron: Ebron has benefited the most by the Steelers steering away from the run. After just one TE1 scoring week through five weeks on 4.8 targets per game, Ebron has been a TE1 in six of his past seven games on 7.7 targets per game. The past two weeks he has seen 11 targets come in his direction with seven receptions in each. Buffalo is allowing a league-high 6.1 receptions per game to tight ends and are 29th in yards allowed per target to the position (8.3 yards) to keep Ebron as a volume-based TE1.

Dawson Knox: Knox is coming off a season-high four targets (4-27-1) and has found the end zone in each of his past two games. Knox has yet to reach 40 yards in a game and last week was the first time he cleared two receptions in a game, leaving him as a touchdown-dependent TE2.

More Week 14 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet: