As part of the Sharp Football Draft Kit, Raymond Summerlin is posting a fantasy football preview for all 32 NFL teams.
This preview includes advanced stats, the fantasy football outlook for Kenny Pickett, Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, Pat Freiermuth, Najee Harris, and every other notable Steeler, and in-depth analysis of the coaching staff, passing game, and rushing attack.
Find a link to every team preview in our Draft Kit Hub.
Highlights:
- Kenny Pickett ranked 23rd among all quarterbacks in the number of his passes that went at least 15 yards downfield last season, but he had the eighth-best off-target rate on those throws according to PFF.
- In the five games Mitch Trubisky played at least 85% of the snaps last season, Diontae Johnson averaged 10.2 targets a game. He averaged eight in his other 12 games.
- Among running backs with at least 100 touches last season, Najee Harris ranked 48th out of 51 in yards per touch (4.0). He was 45th in yards per carry (3.8), 37th in yards after contact per rush (2.74), and 45th in the percentage of his runs that gained at least 10 yards (7.4%).
2022 Steelers Stats (NFL Rank):
- Points: 308 (26th)
- Total Offense: 5,484 (23rd)
- Plays: 1,109 (9th)
- Offensive TDs: 28 (29th)
- Points Per Drive: 1.68 (23rd)
- EPA+ Per Play: 1.2 (14th)
- Situation Neutral Pace: 31.18 seconds (18th)
2023 Steelers Coaching Staff:
- Head Coach: Mike Tomlin
- Offensive Coordinator: Matt Canada
Somewhat surprisingly, Matt Canada will be back in 2023 for his third season in charge of the offense. The first two of those were not spectacular.
The Steelers are 22nd in EPA per play over the last two seasons and have not cracked the top 20 in either total offense or total points under Canada.
Canada can point to the final year of Ben Roethlisberger and the first year of Kenny Pickett as reasons the offense has struggled, but those excuses are coming to a quick end.
Canada has not helped himself with his play calling, especially on early downs, and he has to find a way to create more explosive plays. Pittsburgh has ranked bottom-12 in 20-plus yard passes and runs in each of the last two seasons.
Pickett ranked 23rd among all quarterbacks in the number of his passes that went at least 15 yards downfield last season, but he had the eighth-best off-target rate on those throws according to PFF. Canada has to get Pickett and George Pickens more chances down the field this season.
2022 Steelers Passing Stats:
- Dropbacks: 639 (14th)
- Neutral Pass Rate: 48.4% (23rd)
- Pass Rate Over Expected: -3.6% (20th)
- Pressure Rate Allowed: 19.4% (15th)
- ESPN Pass Block Win Rate: 65% (7th)
2023 Steelers Passing Game Preview:
The Steelers will face the 13th-toughest passing schedule based on 2022 efficiency numbers.
- QB: Kenny Pickett, Mitch Trubisky
- WR: Diontae Johnson, Miles Boykin
- WR: George Pickens, Gunner Olszewski
- WR: Allen Robinson, Calvin Austin III
- TE: Pat Freiermuth, Zach Gentry
Kenny Pickett helped the Steelers finish strong in his rookie season, but his statistical performance left a lot to be desired.
He threw for 2,404 yards on 389 attempts (6.2 yards per attempt) with 7 touchdowns (1.8% rate) and 9 interceptions (2.3% rate).
His yards per attempt, touchdown rate, and interception rate ranked 32nd, 33rd, and 19th among 33 qualified quarterbacks.
Part of the issue was a lack of big plays. Pickett had just 41 completions that gained at least 15 yards, ahead of only Zach Wilson and Carson Wentz among qualifying quarterbacks.
As mentioned above, though, those issues creating big plays were not entirely on him, and his touchdown total was damaged by the Steelers finishing with 8.8 fewer TDs than expected given their yardage total.
Pickett himself scored 18.2 fewer fantasy points than expected in the red zone, the second-lowest total among quarterbacks being taken in fantasy drafts this year.
With a decent rushing profile (3.21 fantasy points per game on the ground as a rookie), Pickett could turn into a streaming option and starter in 2QB formats if he gets more chances down the field and those scoring numbers regress toward average.
Many of my predictions this season will be wrong, but there is one about which I feel very comfortable.
Diontae Johnson will score at least one touchdown this season.
The owner of 20 touchdowns over three seasons coming into 2022, Johnson did not manage a single score despite an expected total of over six.
Johnson still commanded a healthy 26.8% of the Pittsburgh targets, and his routes and air yards were nearly exactly the same as the year before.
Unfortunately, his yards per route run, target rate per route, catch rate, and yards per catch were all below his career averages.
Concerningly, those poor rate stats came about during his time playing with Pickett.
Diontae Johnson Quarterback Splits, 2022:
| Quarterback | Yards per Route | Target Rate per Route | Target Share | Catch Rate | Yards per Catch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Pickett | 1.19 | 21.8% | 25.1% | 52.2% | 10.3 |
| Mitch Trubisky | 2.00 | 28.7% | 30.5% | 68.5% | 10.2 |
Johnson did see a lower rate of accurate targets from Pickett, but there was not a large enough gap to explain the dramatically different catch rates.
His air yards per target were higher with Trubisky, which makes that gap even more surprising.
Rate stats are not particularly sticky, especially over a sub-100 target sample, so that catch rate is likely just a fluky outlier, especially since that gap did not exist with the other primary receivers.
The target share and target rate per route are much larger concerns.
In the five games Mitch Trubisky played at least 85% of the snaps last season, Johnson averaged 10.2 targets a game.
He averaged eight in his other 12 games. He was the WR63 in per-game scoring during those 12 weeks, behind George Pickens at WR33.
Even if his touchdowns rebound as expected, that volume will need to be better this season for Johnson to return value.
As for Pickens, he was the only real downfield threat on the team last season.
17 of the Steelers’ 44 catches that went for at least 20 yards came from Pickens (38.6%), and his 14.8 air yards per target were a full four more than any other primary pass catcher.
He turned that usage into a 52/801/4 line as a rookie, a WR50 finish in per-game scoring. He finished inside the top 12 two weeks and the top 24 six times.
The concern is he was targeted on just 14.5% of his rookie routes, something that will have to change for him to become a reliable fantasy option.
In order for that to change, Pickens will need to have more variety in his routes. Among all receivers with at least 50 targets last season, he was easily first in the percentage of go routes (38.1%).
There is evidence that will change given what Pickett said after the Steelers' preseason opener, a game Pickens scored a touchdown on an in-breaking route.
“We've been working that. Kind of an in-breaking route. Man-to-man coverage, so it was good to see him separate.”
Pickens will carry big fantasy upside if he diversifies his route tree and is targeted on a larger percentage of his routes as a sophomore.
No one wants an Allen Robinson bounceback more than me, but it is tough to make a case for him coming off two horrifically inefficient seasons in a row.
106 receivers ran at least 200 routes last season. Robinson ranked 95th in yards per route run.
He did garner some praise during OTAs, so he is at least worth watching throughout the preseason.
If training camp buzz is to be believed, Calvin Austin III is a name to monitor in the preseason. He has reportedly mixed in with the first team during camp, and he is the next up in line if (when?) Robinson falters.
A fourth-round pick last year, Austin missed his rookie season with a foot injury.
Like the rest of the passing game, Pat Freiermuth suffered from a lack of touchdowns, but his yards per route, target rate per route, and yards per catch all climbed from his rookie totals.
He finished at the TE13 in per-game scoring with a 63/732/2 receiving line.
There is room for growth there based on the likely touchdown regression for Freiermuth and the offense as a whole, and it is promising Pickett finished fifth among qualifying quarterbacks in the percentage of his passes that targeted a tight end.
Freiermuth is a fine pick as a back-end TE1.
2022 Steelers Rushing Stats:
- Rushing Attempts – Scrambles: 469 (9th)
- Yards Before Contact Per Attempt: 2.7 (17th)
- Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Line Yards: 4.54 (10th)
- ESPN’s Run Block Win Rate: 72% (8th)
2023 Steelers Running Game Preview:
The Steelers will face the 15th-toughest rushing schedule based on 2022 efficiency numbers.
- RB: Najee Harris, Jaylen Warren
- OL: Broderick Jones, Isaac Seumalo, Mason Cole, James Daniels, Chukwuma Okorafor
*Preseason Update: Najee Harris was the starter throughout the preseason, but Jaylen Warren mixed in heavily with the first-team offense. In the final preseason game, Harris was on the field for seven of Kenny Pickett‘s 11 snaps with Warren getting the other four.
Najee Harris had another productive outing last season, gaining 1,263 yards from scrimmage on 313 touches and finishing with 10 total touchdowns.
That was good enough for an RB14 finish overall, but that does not really tell the entire story.
Harris fell down to the RB19 when looking at things from a per-game perspective, and he was a top-20 back in eight of his 17 outings last season.
All of that is despite finishing sixth among all running backs in total touches, highlighting his lack of efficiency.
Among running backs with at least 100 touches last season, Harris ranked 48th out of 51 in yards per touch (4.0).
He was 45th in yards per carry (3.8), 37th in yards after contact per rush (2.74), and 45th in the percentage of his runs that gained at least 10 yards (7.4%).
Harris was dealing with an injury for a long stretch of 2022, but that excuse would hold more water if those numbers did not look nearly identical to what he did as a rookie.
It is also difficult to blame the offense when Jaylen Warren finished with 4.9 yards per carry (11th), 3.08 yards after contact per rush (18th), and gained 10 or more yards on 14.3% of his carries (6th) running behind the same line.
Betting on Harris is a bet on volume, which he still had last year, and an improved offensive environment as Kenny Pickett develops and the offense regresses back to average on their rate stats, as highlighted above.
The second part of that is reasonable, but the first part assumes Harris will not start losing more work to Warren, who was simply a much better running back last season.
With limited upside outs unless he suddenly becomes dramatically more efficient and a chance he does not meet his usage expectations even if he stays healthy, Harris looks like a fade at his early RB2 draft cost.
Warren, on the other hand, is a great pick outside the top 100 overall.
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