Ravens vs. Steelers Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 16

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 16 matchup between the Ravens and Steelers on Saturday.

Find a breakdown of every Week 16 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Lamar Jackson: Jackson cleaned up against the Giants on Sunday, completing 21-of-25 passes (84%) for 290 yards (11.6 Y/A) with 5 touchdowns, adding 65 yards rushing. 

It was the fourth time this season that Jackson has scored 30 or more fantasy points.

In a nearly flawless season, Jackson only has one fantasy blemish on his resume, the first matchup between these teams in Week 11.

In that game, Jackson was QB24 (14.9 points), his only week this season finishing lower than QB13 in weekly scoring.

Jackson had season lows with a 48.5% completion rate and 6.3 yards per pass attempt.

The Steelers ran Cover 1 on 38.5% of the snaps that game.

According to the game logs, Jackson has played four opponents who have run a high rate of Cover 1 this season. 

Outside of the Steelers, the Browns (28.6%), Commanders (48.7%), and Raiders (29.3%) all were over 25% against Baltimore.

His three lowest-scoring fantasy games of the season were against the Steelers, Raiders, and Commanders. 

His only games with fewer than 20 fantasy points.

Against Cover 1 this season, Jackson is 22nd in success rate (41.4%) and 21st in EPA per dropback (0.00).

Even without Alex Highsmith in that game, Pittsburgh pressured Jackson on 40% of his dropbacks.

Jackson was 4-of-12 for 34 yards (2.8 Y/A) under pressure in the game.

When kept clean this season, Jackson has a league-high 131.6 rating, completing 76% of his passes (5th) with a league-high 9.9 Y/A and 8.8% touchdown rate.

Jackson’s ceiling is too high to run away from as a QB1 option in seasonal formats. 

How you handle this matchup in Saturday DFS is the only way this matchup impacts how you approach him. 

Jackson has never finished higher than QB12 for fantasy in a start against the Steelers.

If looking for him to break that trend, Pittsburgh could not slow down Jalen Hurts this past weekend, allowing Hurts to complete 25-of-32 passes for 9.1 Y/A with 2 touchdowns and 45 yards and another touchdown on the ground.

Pittsburgh has allowed multiple touchdown passes in three straight games after doing so only once through 11 games.

Russell Wilson: Wilson has thrown for only 158 and 128 yards in the past two weeks.

Without George Pickens, we have seen the limitations of this surrounding talent on offense.

Wilson averages 6.1 yards per pass attempt with Pickens off the field compared to 8.8 Y/A with him on the field.

The original timeline for Pickens suggested that he would be “iffy” for Week 16.

We will follow his status throughout the week, but if Pickens cannot play on Saturday, Wilson will lose steam as a QB2 option.

Even with Pickens available in the Week 11 matchup between these teams, Wilson was QB27 (6.3 points), throwing for 5.7 Y/A, 0 touchdowns, and an interception.

That is a low bar to clear for improvement in this rematch. 

Baltimore has also been a better pass defense at home this season.

At home, they have allowed 7.0 Y/A (15th), a 4.2% touchdown rate (18th), and an 8.6% sack rate (7th) while facing Josh Allen, Jayden Daniels, Joe Burrow, and Jalen Hurts as part of their sample at home this season.

Subscribe to the Sharp Football Email Newsletter to receive FREE BETS from NFL expert Warren Sharp this weekend:

Join our newsletter & receive a free NFL bet this week:

Leave this field empty if you're human:

---

Running Back

Derrick Henry: Henry only managed 14 rushes for 67 yards on Sunday against the Giants.

With a blowout in place, Henry handled a season-low 48.3% of the backfield touches as Rasheen Ali ran out the clock.

Henry played just 2 snaps in the fourth quarter.

Since Henry is so dependent on rushing efficiency and getting into the end zone, we have seen Henry’s fantasy output slow down over the back half of the season.

He only has one RB1 scoring week over his past 7 games. 

Henry only has 13 total catches on the year, so the floor here can slide when efficiency and scoring opportunities are not at their apex.

Henry has been held below 80 yards from scrimmage in four of the past seven games, with 94.9 yards per game.

That happened once over the opening seven games of the season when he averaged 133.6 yards per game.

There is no reason to panic; this is who he has always been for fantasy. 

Henry is still averaging 5.0 YPC over the recent stretch.

Despite the lack of spike weeks, Henry has still rarely bottomed out.

Last week was his first game lower than an RB2 in weekly scoring since the season opener.

He is still an option on the RB1/RB2 line due to his volume and scoring upside, but this is another matchup to approach with trepidation if you expect a spike week.

Pittsburgh has defended the run well.

They have allowed 3.94 YPC to running backs (5th) and just held Saquon Barkley to 65 yards on 19 attempts.

When these teams played in Week 11, Henry rushed 13 times for 65 yards and a touchdown.

If looking for an extra out for fantasy points, running backs have scored 11 times on the ground against Pittsburgh despite their success against the run.

Pittsburgh RBs: Najee Harris found no room to run on Sunday, rushing 6 times for 14 yards.

After rushing for 100 yards in three straight games in Weeks 6-8, Harris has rushed for 299 yards over the past six games with a high mark of 75 yards.

Over the past six weeks, his 3.2 yards per carry ranks 29th out of 30 running backs with 50 or more rushes.

His 30.1% success rate per rush ranks 28th on that list. 

The thing is, Jaylen Warren still does not have enough work to be of much standalone value.

So, we have Harris as a touchdown-dependent RB3/FLEX and Warren as a FLEX play.

Warren has one touchdown on the year, and 31.1% of the backfield touches in his games.

If Pittsburgh cannot control the game script like last week, this backfield can fall apart.

Baltimore allows a league-low 3.4 YPC to running backs, but they are 27th in receiving points allowed (10.3 per game) to backfields.

When these teams played in Week 11, the Pittsburgh backs rushed for only 3.7 YPC, but since they controlled the game, they accrued 28 rushes. 

They did contribute in the passing game, with Harris catching 4 passes for 30 yards and Warren catching 4 passes for 27 yards.

Wide Receiver

Zay Flowers: Flowers collected 6-of-7 targets for 53 yards on Sunday.

Flowers has had a lighter runout for fantasy, failing to log a WR2 or better scoring week in five straight games.

That includes catching 2-of-6 targets for 39 yards and a touchdown when these teams met in Week 11.

Flowers has a respectable 23.8% target share over that span but only 6.7 targets per game due to the low-volume nature of this passing game. 

If looking to play for an upside outcome for Flowers as a WR3 or in Saturday DFS, he has been the favorite target against man coverage.

Flowers has a team-high 26.9% of the targets and 2.15 yards per route run against man coverage.

When these teams played in Week 11, Flowers had a team-high 23.1% of the targets when the Steelers went to man coverage,

This is still a tougher matchup overall. 

The Steelers are 4th in points allowed to WR1 targets (12.9), but they did struggle to slow down both A.J. Brown (8-110-1) and DeVonta Smith (11-109-1) last week.

Rashod Bateman: Bateman was the big winner last week, catching 3-of-5 targets for 80 yards and 2 touchdowns.

He has 7 touchdowns the season after catching 4 touchdowns over his first three seasons in the league.

Bateman is a boom-or-bust WR4/FLEX for fantasy.

He has that touchdown equity and is averaging 17.2 yards per catch, but he also had more than 4 catches in just one game this season.

He is averaging 46.7 yards per game.

Bateman averages 17.1 points per game in his weeks with a touchdown compared to 5.4 per game without.

Bateman caught 2-of-5 targets for 30 yards when these teams played in Week 11.

Pittsburgh WRs: We will follow his status this week but will enter the week expecting George Pickens to miss at least one more game due to his hamstring injury.

In a trailing game script, we did see the Pittsburgh wideouts have a narrower usage rate than in Week 14.

Calvin Austin ran a route on a team-high 92.3% of the dropbacks, catching all five targets for 65 yards.

Van Jefferson ran 22 routes (84.6%) but only had 1 catch for zero yards.

Jefferson averages 0.76 yards per route run on 305 routes this season.

Mike Williams ran 15 routes (57.7%), catching 1-of-2 targets for 15 yards.

This unit is avoidable outside of Saturday DFS, but Austin is the only player with a mild interest in those formats and as a WR4/FLEX.

Austin had a season-high 23.8% of the targets on Sunday and has been a top-40 scorer in three of his past four games.

This is a great matchup on paper for receivers if you need a carrot to chase anyone outside of Austin.

Wide receivers have scored 53.5% of the fantasy points allowed by Baltimore, the 5th-highest share in the league.

Tight End

Pat Freiermuth: Freiermuth only caught 3-of-6 targets for 22 yards on Sunday but found the end zone for the third game in a row.

27.7% of his fantasy points have stemmed from touchdowns, 3rd among tight ends. 

While Freiermuth is still a touchdown-dependent fantasy option, he did have a spike in usage this past week to offer more target potential if Pittsburgh has to drop back and throw again this week.

Freiermuth had a season-high 28.6% of the team targets while running a route on 84.6% of the dropbacks.

He only had 2 catches for 14 yards when these teams played in Week 11, but Pittsburgh controlled that game while they also had George Pickens available. 

The moving parts in the rematch could open the door for more opportunities.

Mark Andrews: Andrews only caught two passes for 24 yards on Sunday, but one was a touchdown. 

Andrews has scored in three straight games and has scored 8 touchdowns over his past nine games.

Like Freiermuth, Andrews is a touchdown-dependent fantasy play, but he does at least have a better offensive attachment to lean into.

No tight end is as dependent on touchdowns as Andrews.

33.2% of his fantasy points have been scored directly from touchdowns. 

In his two games without a touchdown over that hot stretch of getting into the end zone, Andrews has been the TE30 and TE26.

One was when these teams played in Week 11, catching 2-of-3 targets for 22 yards.

More Week 16 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet: