The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 8 Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens Sunday afternoon game.
| Pittsburgh | Rank | @ | Baltimore | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.5 | Spread | -3.5 | ||
| 21.75 | Implied Total | 25.25 | ||
| 30.5 | 6 | Points/Gm | 29.8 | 8 |
| 19.7 | 6 | Points All./Gm | 17.3 | 1 |
| 67.8 | 6 | Plays/Gm | 60.2 | 29 |
| 58.3 | 1 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 66.2 | 24 |
| 45.2% | 8 | Rush% | 50.1% | 1 |
| 54.8% | 25 | Pass% | 49.9% | 32 |
| 34.9% | 1 | Opp. Rush % | 36.0% | 5 |
| 65.1% | 32 | Opp. Pass % | 64.0% | 28 |
- Baltimore has led for a league-high 72.5% of their offensive snaps. Pittsburgh is fourth at 57.7%.
- The Ravens have led by double-digit points for 51.7% of their offensive snaps this season, the highest rate in the league. The next closest team (Green Bay) is at 36.3%.
- Pittsburgh has trailed by double-digit points on a league-low 2.9% of their offensive snaps.
- 48.0% of the Baltimore yardage has been gained via rushing, the highest rate in the league.
- 24.0% of the yardage allowed by the Steelers has come via rushing, fourth-lowest in the league.
- The Steelers lead the league in percentage of runs allowed that fail to gain yardage (26.7%) and rate of runs to generate a first down (15.8%).
- 62.0% of the rushing yardage gained by Baltimore this season has come via runs of 10 or more yards, the highest dependency in the league.
- The Steelers are allowing 1.7 carries per game of 10 or more yards, second in the league behind Tampa Bay (1.0).
- The Ravens are averaging 7.0 red zone plays per game, 30th in the league.
- Lamar Jackson ranks 30th in yards per pass attempt from a clean pocket (6.7 Y/A) while Ben Roethlisberger ranks 31st (6.6 Y/A).
- Roethlisberger ranks eighth in yards per attempt under pressure (7.7 Y/A) while Jackson ranks ninth (7.6 Y/A).
- Roethlisberger is averaging 8.8 yards per pass attempt (seventh) with 54.4% of his attempts converting for a first down on third downs (second) while averaging 5.8 yards per attempt on first and second down (40th) and a 25.2% first down rate (38th).
Quarterback
Lamar Jackson: Checking in on Jackson’s expected passing regression, his touchdown rate (6.2%), yards per attempt (7.0), yards per completion (11.1), and yards per game (189.2) have all dropped off his 2019 pace. He is also being sacked on 8.5% of his dropbacks after 5.4% a year ago. Jackson has particularly struggled versus the blitz, completing just 57.4% of his passes for 5.4 Y/A against the blitz to open the season as opposed to a 65.7% completion rate and 7.8 Y/A versus a normal pass rush. Only the Ravens (46.1%) blitz more than the Steelers (39.8%).
Even during Jackson’s MVP campaign a year ago, the Steelers gave him the most trouble, limiting him to 161 yards passing with one touchdown and three interceptions and 14 carries for 70 yards rushing in the lone game Jackson has started against them. Jackson’s legs always are out for fantasy and he will need them to provide a floor.
Ben Roethlisberger: Roethlisberger’s 268 passing yards last week were the second-most he has posted this season. Unfortunately, those yards came on 49 pass attempts (5.5 Y/A). For the season, Roethlisberger’s 6.8 Y/A rank 27th among passers, but his 13 touchdown passes are tied for ninth. Big Ben has been excellent versus the blitz so far, however, completing 43-of-58 passes (74.1%) for 9.4 Y/A and six touchdowns (130.5 rating) when teams send extra heat as opposed to just 5.8 Y/A otherwise.
The Ravens are sixth in yards per attempt allowed (6.7 Y/A) and fourth in yards per completion surrendered (10.5 yards). If the Ravens overly send blitzes here then Big Ben can find a path to success, but enters the week as a QB2 option.
Running Back
James Conner: Conner has posted over 100 total yards in four of his past five games while last week was the first game since Week 1 in which he failed to reach the end zone (he did have one called back and another he should have caught). Conner has now averaged 20.4 touches per game since exiting Week 1.
The Ravens have allowed the third-fewest rushing points per game (9.2) to backs, which is the toughest test Conner has had to date. Conner did have 106 yards rushing against a Denver defense that ranks seventh and 101 yards on the ground versus a Cleveland defense that ranks 14th. Conner is a volume-based RB2.
Ravens RBs: Mark Ingram left Week 6 with an ankle injury and his status is unknown entering Week 8. With Ingram exiting early, Gus Edwards handled 14 touches (26 yards and a touchdown) while J.K. Dobbins had 11 touches for 29 yards. If Ingram is out, it at least makes this backfield a two-headed committee instead of three.
So far this season, the Ravens backfield has given us just two top-24 scoring weeks. One was J.K. Dobbins in Week 1 when he had two rushing touchdowns and the other was Ingram in Week 2. Just one has a Ravens running back cleared 60 yards in a game this season.
We may get a post-bye bump in usage for Dobbins like we had with D’Andre Swift two weeks ago, but this is also not a great matchup to blindly chase that, either. The Steelers have allowed just 3.3 yards per carry to backs (second) and 9.9 rushing points per game (sixth) to the position. At best, Edwards and Dobbins are RB3/FLEX options should Ingram be absent.
Wide Receiver
Marquise Brown: The team percentage metrics favor Brown. He has 26.9% of the team targets (eighth among wideouts) and 44.9% of the team air yards (second). But his counting opportunity of 6.7 targets per game ranks 27th among wideouts. Brown has at least four receptions in five of six games, but more than five in just one.
The Steelers have been a strong pass defense this season, but have been prone to the big play. Pittsburgh ranks 25th in completion rate on deep targets (51.3%) and 20th in receptions allowed of 20-plus yards (21). When the Ravens do throw, they involve Brown, but volume is always a question, leaving Brown as a boom-or-bust WR3.
Diontae Johnson: Johnson has played 75% of the team snaps in three games this season and in those games, has received 10, 13, and 15 targets. Johnson has not been hyper-efficient on any level, catching just 58.5% of his targets, while averaging just 5.5 yards per target and 9.5 yards per catch, but that amount of opportunity has led to him being able to stack receptions and he has three touchdowns in those games. Johnson also left last week’s game once again late with an ankle injury, leaving his status up in the air early in the week. Johnson is a volume-based WR2 if his health checks out.
JuJu Smith-Schuster: After bottoming out in Week 6, Smith-Schuster received a season-high 14 targets last week, catching nine for 85 yards. Those 14 targets matched his previous three game total. He has run a route on 95.6% of the team dropbacks (fifth at WR) while averaging 36.2 routes per game (15th). He also accrued a season-high 120 air yards. With Johnson active and Claypool commanding attention, that could be what Smith-Schuster needs to open things up for opportunities in the middle of the field.
In five career games versus the Ravens, Smith-Schuster has secured 23-of-37 targets for 266 yards and two scores. Last week was Smith-Schuster’s first week as a WR2 or better since Week 1 and the matchup is not glowing, so we can pump the brakes a bit on just instantly elevating back into WR2 status, but it does keep the lights on for him as a WR3/FLEX.
Chase Claypool: With Johnson back in the lineup we were wondering whose playing time would be impacted the most between Claypool and James Washington. It was Washington, as Claypool ran 33 pass routes compared to just 12 for Washington. Those 33 routes were still below Smith-Schuster (47) and Johnson (43), but Claypool also commanded shadow coverage from Malcolm Butler when on the field. Claypool has had more than four targets just once this season and still does not have an end zone target. The Ravens have allowed just three touchdowns to opposing wideouts on the year as well. Claypool is a boom-or-bust FLEX.
Tight End
Mark Andrews: Like Brown, Andrews also carries great rate metrics, but sketchy counting stats. Andrews is third among tight ends in team target share (21.2%) and is first in air yard percentage (25.2%), but his 5.5 targets per game are just 13th at the position. That has created some low moments as Andrews has posted fewer than 30 yards in three of his six games while he has yet to hit 60 yards in any game to open the season.
But Andrews is tied for the league lead with seven end zone targets and touchdowns (five) despite already having a bye and the Ravens reaching the red zone far less than a year ago.
The Steelers face the ninth most targets per game to tight ends (7.8), but are second in catch rate (48.9%) and third in yards per target (4.9) to the position. Andrews is still a TE1 based on his scoring upside and team usage, but a ceiling week should not be anticipated.
Eric Ebron: Ebron had season-highs last week with six catches and eight targets, turning them into 50 yards. Ebron ranks seventh among all tight ends in share of team air yards (20.1%), but is 17th in targets per game (5.3) and 22nd in overall fantasy output at the position. Ebron is a TE2 option.
More Week 8 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:
ATL at CAR | TEN at CIN | NYJ at KC | PIT at BAL | LAR at MIA | MIN at GB | NE at BUF | LVR at CLE | IND at DET | LAC at DEN | NO at CHI | SF at SEA | DAL at PHI | TB at NYG
