- The Chicago Bears have the easiest 2024 fantasy football schedule for passing
- The Cincinnati Bengals have the hardest 2024 fantasy football schedule for passing
- The Atlanta Falcons have the easiest 2024 fantasy football schedule for rushing
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have the hardest 2024 fantasy football schedule for rushing
There is no perfect way to determine strength of schedule for the upcoming NFL season.
Some are much better than others – such as our metric that relies on Vegas win totals – but even the best ones are not actionable for fantasy drafts.
Strength of schedule is difficult because teams change dramatically every season, especially on defense.
Simple turnover luck can help the worst passing defense in the league improve to a middle-of-the-pack unit the next season.
Teams also target their weaknesses during the offseason, so the worst defenses tend to add more talent than the elite ones from the season before.
All of that said, some of those strength of schedule failings can be mitigated by using efficiency numbers that take game script out of the equation, looking at each schedule critically, and focusing primarily on the extremes on either side.
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Full Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule, Passing:
| Rank (1=Easiest) | Team |
|---|---|
| 1 | Chicago Bears |
| 2 | Minnesota Vikings |
| 3 | Tennessee Titans |
| 4 | Indianapolis Colts |
| 5 | New Orleans Saints |
| 6 | Carolina Panthers |
| 7 | Detroit Lions |
| 8 | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 9 | Seattle Seahawks |
| 10 | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 11 | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 12 | Green Bay Packers |
| 13 | San Francisco 49ers |
| 14 | New England Patriots |
| 15 | Atlanta Falcons |
| 16 | Houston Texans |
| 17 | New York Jets |
| 18 | Baltimore Ravens |
| 19 | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 20 | Dallas Cowboys |
| 21 | Washington Commanders |
| 22 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 23 | Arizona Cardinals |
| 24 | Cleveland Browns |
| 25 | Miami Dolphins |
| 26 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 27 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 28 | Los Angeles Rams |
| 29 | Buffalo Bills |
| 30 | New York Giants |
| 31 | Denver Broncos |
| 32 | Cincinnati Bengals |
The runout for Caleb Williams continues to look strong heading into his rookie campaign.
Not only did the Bears do everything they could to surround him with receiving talent, but he is looking at the easiest on-paper schedule for a quarterback.
As mentioned in the intro, though, that comes with caveats.
For instance, Williams has a Week 1 game against a Titans defense that was bottom third in most metrics against the pass last season but added several pieces to the secondary over the offseason.
On paper, Tennessee's pass defense looks much improved.
Still, even if Williams gets the bad end of several defensive improvements this season, his schedule looks appealing.
That is also true for his trio of receivers: D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze.
Volume remains a legitimate concern for all three given how many mouths there are to feed in this offense, but the schedule should not be a concern.
Fellow rookie and NFC North quarterback J.J. McCarthy could also get a nice runout if he can land the starting job.
The Vikings have the second-easiest schedule against the pass while the Lions and Packers also find themselves in the top 12.
Detroit and Green Bay are worth noting because they could play a big role in determining how good the passing schedule is for the other two teams in the division.
Both teams struggled against the pass last season but have made additions to improve their secondaries.
On the other end of the spectrum, Joe Burrow‘s welcome back from what amounted to a lost season is the toughest schedule against the pass.
That ranking is not surprising given the division he plays in.
The Steelers (27th), Browns (24th), and Ravens (18th) all rank in the bottom half of schedule difficulty for their passing games.
As Rich Hribar noted in his quarterback rankings, Burrow has traditionally struggled more against his division than the rest of the league.
Burrow has posted a 33.3% QB1 scoring rate in division games compared to a 55.9% QB1 scoring rate in games outside of the AFC North.
The Broncos (31st) and Giants (30th) stand out as passing games that could have used some schedule luck but might not get it.
Daniel Jones had some fantasy success in his first season with Brian Daboll, and the Giants added Malik Nabers in the first round to give the passing game some intrigue.
Even that level of excitement does not exist with the Broncos and likely starter Bo Nix.
Full Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule, Rushing
| Rank (1=Easiest) | Team |
|---|---|
| 1 | Atlanta Falcons |
| 2 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 3 | Cleveland Browns |
| 4 | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 5 | New Orleans Saints |
| 6 | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 7 | New York Giants |
| 8 | Carolina Panthers |
| 9 | Washington Commanders |
| 10 | Baltimore Ravens |
| 11 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 12 | Denver Broncos |
| 13 | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 14 | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 15 | Dallas Cowboys |
| 16 | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 17 | San Francisco 49ers |
| 18 | Los Angeles Rams |
| 19 | Seattle Seahawks |
| 20 | Detroit Lions |
| 21 | Arizona Cardinals |
| 22 | Chicago Bears |
| 23 | New England Patriots |
| 24 | Minnesota Vikings |
| 25 | Miami Dolphins |
| 26 | Buffalo Bills |
| 27 | Houston Texans |
| 28 | New York Jets |
| 29 | Tennessee Titans |
| 30 | Green Bay Packers |
| 31 | Indianapolis Colts |
| 32 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
The Falcons offense had a great offseason, and the news gets even better here for Bijan Robinson.
Robinson's RB17 finish in half-PPR per game scoring last season was somewhat disappointing, but 19 running backs scored more touchdowns than Robinson.
He was the RB9 per game if touchdowns are removed from the equation, and there should be more touchdowns available with Kirk Cousins now at quarterback.
Robinson also saw a much smaller share of his backfield touches than other elite running backs a season ago, as Rich Hribar notes in his running back rankings.
Only five other running backs had more total yards a year ago. Robinson did that on just 50.6% of his backfield touches. Others ahead of him had 69.5%, 72.1%, 62.2%, 76.0%, and 76.1%.
The offseason buzz of a “Christian McCaffrey” role might be just buzz, but there is a lot of room for improvement for Robinson in his second season without even considering what appears to be a favorable schedule.
The Chargers also stick out as interesting given their new coaching staff and somewhat unsettled situation in the backfield.
Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman want to run. There is no question about that.
Look at where Roman’s offenses have ranked in rushing yardage over his 10 seasons as an offensive coordinator including his time with Harbaugh in San Francisco:
- 2011 49ers: 8th total rushing, 9th in RB rushing
- 2012 49ers: 4th total rushing, 9th in RB rushing
- 2013 49ers: 3rd total rushing, 11th in RB rushing
- 2014 49ers: 4th total rushing, 17th in RB rushing
- 2015 Bills: 1st total rushing, 4th in RB rushing
- 2016 Bills: 1st total rushing, 2nd in RB rushing
- 2019 Ravens: 1st total rushing, 3rd in RB rushing
- 2020 Ravens: 1st total rushing, 6th in RB rushing
- 2021 Ravens: 3rd total rushing, 25th in RB rushing
- 2022 Ravens: 2nd total rushing, 11th in RB rushing
As it stands, Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins look poised to handle the bulk of the work in the backfield, as they did at times for Roman in Baltimore.
But each comes with health questions — especially Dobbins — which could open the door for a surprise.
Perhaps that surprise ends up being sixth-round rookie Kimani Vidal, who looks appealing as a late-round dart throw.
At the other end of the table, Travis Etienne is coming off a season in which he struggled with his efficiency, and it does not appear as if the schedule will do him any favors in his bid for a bounceback.
That said, Etienne was a solid if not great 37th among qualified running backs in yards after contact per carry last season and not far off his 2022 numbers in that metric.
He was 52nd among that same group in yards before contact per carry, and teammate Tank Bigsby was dead last among the qualified group.
Those numbers suggest other factors contributed to Etienne's down season and the talent that had him averaging 5.7 yards per touch in 2022 is still there.
Which NFL team has the easiest 2024 fantasy football schedule for passing?
The Chicago Bears have the easiest 2024 fantasy football schedule for passing based on 2023 pass defense efficiency.
Which NFL team has the hardest 2024 fantasy football schedule for passing?
The Cincinnati Bengals have the hardest 2024 fantasy football schedule for passing based on 2023 pass defense efficiency.
Which NFL team has the easiest 2024 fantasy football schedule for rushing?
The Atlanta Falcons have the easiest 2024 fantasy football schedule for rushing based on 2023 run defense efficiency.
Which NFL team has the hardest 2024 fantasy football schedule for rushing?
The Jacksonville Jaguars have the hardest 2024 fantasy football schedule for rushing based on 2023 run defense efficiency.