In Sunday's featured Showdown, we get a top-tier matchup as the Buffalo Bills visit the Kansas City Chiefs. For a breakdown of this game, check out Rich Hribar’s Fantasy Football Worksheet.
The Chiefs are favorites of just under a field goal at home. This is the first game I’ve written up this season that has 3-3 builds as the most common in the optimizer. We might be able to differentiate with 5-1 builds of either team. The field will try to squeeze in four of the top five elite players: Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and Stefon Diggs. Those types of lineups will be heavily duplicated, so a build rule of no more than three in the same lineup should help differentiate. If using four together, you would have to get very unique in the other two positions and with leaving salary unspent to lower duplicates. I will update with roster strategy once exposure projections are available.
Strategy
It’s tough to discern who will be the most popular CPT tonight, with varying projections on Diggs or Hill, with the QBs close behind. Adding Kelce to the group, all are expected between 9-17% at CPT and 47-68% overall. With ownership that spread out, you can really go in any direction you want with your highest conviction plays for tonight. It makes sense to include a depth option in your QB at CPT stacks, such as Demarcus Robinson, Byron Pringle and Gabriel Davis and Dawson Knox. Going over weight on the running backs is probably the easiest way to differentiate, especially Devin Singletary and Darrell Williams. I’m also seeing very low ownership expectations with both kickers and DSTs.
DK Values
- Byron Pringle ($800)
- Cole Beasley ($5800)
- Gabriel Davis ($1000)
DK Leverage
- Darrell Williams ($3600)
- Demarcus Robinson ($3200)
DK Build Ideas
- Max 1 DST, Max 1 K
- Max 2 depth WR/TE/RB
- Max 1 dart throw group (or 1 per team if MME)
- Max 1 TE per team
- Max 3 of the top 5 plays per lineup
- Negative boost same team RBs
- If CPT QB, include one depth option in stack
- If CPT RB, negative boost opposing DST/K
- If CPT WR/TE boost team QB and force at least 1 QB (either team)
- Cumulative ownership under 250%
- Use rostership product to reduce duplicates
- Leave salary unspent
FD Values
- Mecole Hardman ($7500)
- Dawson Knox ($8000)
FD Leverage
- Devin Singletary ($9500) – RB2, likely pass-happy game-script
- Darrell Williams ($7000) – RB2 with low usage and overpriced
FD Build Ideas
- No K at MVP
- Focus on 3-2 build construction
- No solo CPT in 1-4 construction
- Negative boost opposing QBs (Lineups with both only win 30%)
- If WR CPT, boost QB
- QB is overused but RB and WR are underutilized at MVP
- Don’t stack 3 pass catchers from the same team
- Don’t force the max salary
For more optimizer build rules to consider, check out the list for each DK and FD here.