In Sunday night’s Showdown, the Chicago Bears visit the Green Bay Packers in a divisional matchup. For a breakdown of this game, check out Rich Hribar’s Fantasy Football Worksheet.

The Packers are currently -12.5 at home and their players should dominate rostership. There are more values on the Packers' side also, so there will probably be a disproportionate percentage of 5–1 and 4–2 roster builds for the favorites.

Strategy

This is the most lopsided showdown I’ve analyzed this season with only 5% of all roster constructions expected to have four or five Bears. You could easily double the field on that and still have 90% of your lineups for more likely outcomes. The most popular build is four Packers (>45%), with 3–3 and 5-1 each approaching 25%.

Davante Adams will be the most popular CPT, projected between 20–22% with Aaron Rodgers behind him at 12 Dash 15%. This is a rare spot where a WR will be the most popular overall (CPT+Flex) player rather than a QB, with Adams expected to be in over 70% of lineups. The next group consists of AJ Dillon, Aaron Jones, David Montgomery and Justin Fields between 6–12% CPT.

A build idea I like for tonight is to negatively correlate Allen Robinson and Darnell Mooney because Fields is unlikely to support both of them going off in the same game. It also makes sense to do this with Cole Kmet and Jimmy Graham for the same reason. Adams can be the optimal CPT without Rogers even being in the lineup, given his ridiculous alpha role. If you want to focus on Packers heavy lineups, I don’t blame you, but use extra build rules to reduce duplicates when possible.

DK Values

  • AJ Dillon ($4400)
  • Damiere Byrd ($2400)
  • Josiah Deguara ($2600)

DK Leverage

  • David Montgomery ($10000)
  • Allen Lazard ($4800)

DK Build Ideas

  • Max 1 DST, Max 1 K
  • Max 2 depth WR/TE/RB
  • Negative correlation boost group of Robinson and Mooney
  • Negative boost group for Graham and Kmet
  • If CPT QB, include one depth option in stack 
  • If CPT RB, negative boost opposing DST/K
  • If CPT WR/TE boost team QB and force at least 1 QB (either team)
  • If CPT Rodgers, stack 2+ and consider 3+
  • Cumulative ownership under 250%
  • Leave salary unspent 

FD Values

  • Josiah Deguara ($6000)
  • Cole Kmet ($7500)

FD Leverage

  • Anyone $7000 or less

FD Build Ideas

  • No K or TE at MVP
  • Focus on 3-2 build construction
  • No solo CPT in 1-4 construction
  • Negative boost opposing QBs (Lineups with both only win 30%)
  • If WR CPT, boost QB
  • QB is overused but RB and WR are underutilized at MVP
  • Don’t stack 3 pass catchers from the same team
  • Don’t force the max salary

For more optimizer build rules to consider, check out the list for each DK and FD here.