In Sunday night’s Showdown, the Denver Broncos visit the Kansas City Chiefs in a divisional matchup. For a breakdown of this game, check out Rich Hribar’s Fantasy Football Worksheet.
The Chiefs are currently -9 at home and their fantasy studs should dominate rostership. There are more values on the Chiefs side also, so there will probably be a disproportionate percentage of 5–1 and 4–2 roster builds for the favorites. Melvin Gordon has been ruled out for the Broncos so Javonte Williams and Mike Boone are underpriced.
Strategy
The most Rostered CPT looks to be Tyreek Hill (17–25%) or Patrick Mahomes (18–20%). Quarterbacks end up most rostered in flex generally, and Mahomes is expected to be an 82–93% of all lineups. Next are Javonte Williams and Travis Kelce between 9–12% CPT. Kelce, Jerry Jeudy, Teddy Bridgewater and Clyde Edwards-Helaire all make reasonable options to go overweight on at CPT. Mike Boone is expected to be in under 20% of rosters, which is way too low if his projected score is accurate. Using him at CPT is fine as long as you don’t put the five most obvious players around him at flex, which will be heavily duplicated.
We have the largest percentage of onslaught utilization for the favored team so far the season, with the Chiefs 5–1 approaching 22%. Broncos 5–1 is under 1%, offering huge leverage considering they have near a 25% implied probability of winning the game. Even the four Broncos construction is incredibly low; under 7%. My recommended strategy would be to be deliberately contrarian with any lineups that have three or more Chiefs, with the strategies discussed previously and listed below.
DK Values
- Darrell Williams ($2000)
- Mike Boone ($200)
DK Leverage
- Courtland Sutton ($6800)
- Tim Patrick ($6200)
DK Build Ideas
- Max 1 DST, Max 1 K
- Max 2 depth WR/TE/RB
- Negative correlation of CEH and Williams (negative boost group)
- Negative boost Hill/Kelce group
- If CPT QB, include one depth option in stack
- If CPT Mahomes, stack 3+
- If CPT RB, negative boost opposing DST/K
- If CPT WR/TE boost team QB and force at least 1 QB (either team)
- Cumulative ownership under 250%
- Leave salary unspent
FD Values
- Mike Boone ($5000)
- Javonte Williams ($10500)
FD Leverage
- Darrell Williams ($10500)
- Anyone $6500 or lower
FD Build Ideas
- No K or TE at MVP
- Focus on 3-2 build construction
- No solo CPT in 1-4 construction
- Negative boost opposing QBs (Lineups with both only win 30%)
- If WR CPT, boost QB
- QB is overused but RB and WR are underutilized at MVP
- Don’t stack 3 pass catchers from the same team
- Don’t force the max salary
For more optimizer build rules to consider, check out the list for each DK and FD here.