In Sunday's featured Showdown, the Indianapolis Colts visit the San Francisco 49ers. For a breakdown of this game, check out Rich Hribar’s Fantasy Football Worksheet.
The 49ers are 4-point favorites at home, with Jimmy Garoppolo expected to return from injury for the start. He has been a disappointment every week he started, but that hasn’t stopped Deebo Samuel from going off. Eli Mitchell is expected to lead the backfield for San Francisco and should be very popular. The Colts are not projecting as highly, but Jonathan Taylor has been explosive and may be popular based solely on recent performances. I will update with roster strategy once ownership projections are available.
Strategy
5–1 on slots are expected to be used under 14%, with 49ers onslaughts being five times more common. It looks like 3–3 and 4–2 49ers builds will be in over 75% of the lineups. Deebo Samuel looks to be the most popular, near 25% at CPT and 73% total. Eli Mitchell and Jonathan Taylor are next near 15% CPT and 60% overall. Oddly, anyone price at $7000 or below looks to be 20% or lower rostered, so it should be easy to differentiate. Mohamed Sanu seems under-owned and I really like Kyle Juszczyk to get pass-catching role for San Francisco. Nyheim Hines also makes sense as a leverage play off of Taylor.
DK Values
- Travis Benjamin ($200)
- Jack Doyle ($1000) – both are risky but have the best value scores on the slate.
DK Leverage
- RB2 or RB3 ($1400 – 2800)
DK Build Ideas
- Max 1 DST, Max 1 K
- Max 2 depth WR/TE/RB
- Negative boost same team RBs
- If CPT QB, include one depth option in stack
- If CPT RB, negative boost opposing DST/K
- If CPT WR/TE boost team QB and force at least 1 QB (either team)
- Cumulative ownership under 250%
- Use rostership product to reduce duplicates
- Leave salary unspent
FD Values
- Eli Mitchell ($11000)
- Kyle Juszczyk ($5500)
FD Leverage
- T.Y. Hilton ($10,500) – If he starts (Quad injury)
- Zach Pascal ($10,000) – Both of these guys are very overpriced
FD Build Ideas
- No K at MVP
- Focus on 3-2 build construction
- No solo CPT in 1-4 construction
- Negative boost opposing QBs (Lineups with both only win 30%)
- If WR CPT, boost QB
- QB is overused but RB and WR are underutilized at MVP
- Don’t stack 3 pass catchers from the same team
- Don’t force the max salary
For more optimizer build rules to consider, check out the list for each DK and FD here.