In Sunday's featured Showdown, we get the Kansas City Chiefs visiting the Baltimore Ravens. For a breakdown of this exciting SNF game, check out Rich Hribar’s Fantasy Football Worksheet. Though both offenses are potent, there may be some studs worth fading if trends continue from these teams’ previous Patrick Mahomes vs Lamar Jackson battles.
Mahomes has historically shredded in this matchup as he excels against the blitz and the Ravens have refused to adjust. Jackson has been mediocre in their three previous matchups but still has an excellent ceiling.
For the Ravens, Marquise Brown (Questionable) is the WR1 but has never been worth rostering against KC, who limits opposing WR production. Be sure to monitor his injury status leading up to kickoff, and boost other Baltimore pass-catchers if he is out or limited. Sammy Watkins, once again has a strong first week of the season and will now face his former team. Mark Andrews busted last week but he may be my favorite stack option, pending roster projections. Kansas City seems happy to feature Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce as much or more than any other duo in the league. They are projected as the two best overall plays on the slate. The overhyped Mecole Hardman is technically the WR2 but has mostly been underwhelming so far in his career. I buy into the narrative that he is more Hill’s backup than anything else.
At RB, the Chiefs feature Clyde Edwards-Helaire. He has rarely been given enough touches to pay off and isn’t featured much in the green zone or passing game. However, his usage was better last week than his rookie year and two of his best performances have come against Baltimore. The Ravens have a split backfield with Ty’Son Williams and Latavius Murray. I’ll mix them in liberally, but avoid using more than one Baltimore RB per lineup due to both being overpriced. With Jackson taking so many of the team's potential carries, I can’t see both being in the optimal together at their salaries.
It’s interesting that there are no low-priced options standing out when compared to the duo of KC pass-catchers. The closest guys are the kickers ($3600/3800). Besides that, we have Darrell Williams ($2,600) and a pair of Ravens ($200) dart-throws with TE2 Josh Oliver and WR4 James Proche, all with decent value scores but high bust potential.
Ownership Strategy (Updated)
One source has Mahomes as the most owned at CPT while another has Hill, with Jackson close behind and all three in the 13-18% range. Kelce is close behind with 9-13% projected at CPT. All four studs are projected to be hugely popular, appearing in 52-76% of lineups.
My plan is to go underweight on Hardman and pivot to Demarcus Robinson at a similar price point but much lower ownership. I’ll do the same with the Ravens’ WRs by being low on Brown and using more Watkins and to a lesser extent, Proche and Devin Duvernay, especially if Brown is ruled out. I’ll be mixing in plenty of the depth options but want to set build rules to avoid of having too many in the same lineup.
DK Values
- Tyreek Hill ($10,600)
- Travis Kelce ($10,400)
- Mark Andrews ($6,200)
DK Leverage
- Sammy Watkins ($7,800)
- Demarcus Robinson ($4,000)
DK Build Guide
- Max 1 DST/K
- If CPT QB boost their receiving weapons (CEH included)
- Max 2 depth WR/TE/RB
- Max 1 dart throw group (or 1 per team if MME)
- If CPT RB, negative boost opposing DST/K
- If CPT WR/TE boost or force QB
- Max 1 RB per team
- Cumulative ownership under 250%
- Use ownership product to reduce duplicates (Pairing chalk with low-owned players is superior to using all medium-owned players paired together when considering similar cumulative ownership).
For more optimizer build rules to consider, check out the list for each DK and FD here.