In Sunday's featured Showdown, Tom Brady leads the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in his return to New England to face Bill Belichick’s Patriots. For a breakdown of this game, check out Rich Hribar’s Fantasy Football Worksheet.

The Buccaneers are touchdown road favorites and have significantly more exciting players to roster. We can expect the majority of lineups to use a 5-1 or 4-2 strategy loaded with Brady and his high-upside receivers: Chris Godwin, Mike Evans and Antonio Brown. The field will not be as excited to roster Mac Jones and his uninspiring receiving corps of Jakobi Meyers, Nelson Agholor, Kendrick Bourne, Jonnu Smith, and Hunter Henry. Nor will the Patriots’ RB committee of Damien Harris and Brandon Bolden command much exposure as big underdogs. Building as if the Patriots keep it close or win will help minimize duplicates. I will update with roster strategy once roster projections are available.

(Updated) Roster Strategy:

Brady is expected to be in over 90% of lineups and near 23% at CPT. If you can build around and obscure scenario where Brady posts a dud, you would be likely to avoid duplicates. Potential game scripts that fit that idea could be a Buccaneers win where Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones get the majority of TDs, or Brady doesn’t need to throw for many yards but one of his receivers gets a couple scores. If using Brady in your lineup, especially at CPT, make sure to get very contrarian in at least two other spots and/or with leaving significant salary unspent.

Bradys bloated ownership means that Godwin is the only other player projected for over 50% ownership (12% CPT), with Evans at 44% (10% CPT). There are great potential lineups to be built around either guy, but if Brady is included in the flex then you’ll need to differentiate elsewhere or risk being heavily duplicated. I believe that building around RBs, TEs or New England WRs will offer maximum leverage tonight.

DK Values

  • Brandon Bolden ($600) 
  • Ronald Jones II ($2,000)
  • O.J. Howard ($1,000) – Gronk is out

DK Leverage

  • Hunter Henry ($4,600) – Priced higher than Jonnu Smith with a worse projection
  • Cameron Brate ($4,200) – Gronk is out and O.J. Howard is only ($1,000) with a similar projection

DK Build Ideas

  • Max 1 DST, Max 1 K
  • Max 2 depth WR/TE/RB
  • Max 1 dart throw group (or 1 per team if MME)
  • Max 1 TE per team
  • Max 1 of Brandon Bolden, J.J. Taylor, Rhamondre Stevenson
  • Negative boost same team RBs
  • If using Brady, Include 1+ depth option and leave salary unspent
  • If CPT RB, negative boost opposing DST/K
  • If CPT WR/TE boost team QB and force at least 1 QB (either team)
  • Cumulative rostership under 250%
  • Use rostership product to reduce duplicates

FD Values

  • Leonard Fournette ($9,000)
  • Brandon Bolden ($6,000)

FD Leverage

  • Kendrick Bourne ($9,500) – Projected WR3
  • Hunter Henry ($8,000) – Priced higher than Jonnu Smith with a worse projection

FD Build Ideas

  • No K or TE at MVP
  • Focus on 3-2 build construction
  • No solo CPT in 1-4 construction
  • Negative boost opposing QBs (Lineups with both only win 30%)
  • If WR CPT, boost QB
  • QB is overused but RB and WR are underutilized at MVP
  • Don’t stack 3 pass catchers from the same team
  • Don’t force the max salary

For more optimizer build rules to consider, check out the list for each DK and FD here.