The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 17 Houston Texans at San Francisco 49ers Sunday afternoon game.
| Houston | Rank | @ | San Francisco | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Spread | -13 | ||
| 15.5 | Implied Total | 28.5 | ||
| 16.5 | 30 | Points/Gm | 25.1 | 14 |
| 26.7 | 29 | Points All./Gm | 22.3 | 18 |
| 59.5 | 31 | Plays/Gm | 61.2 | 28 |
| 65 | 26 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 60.4 | 3 |
| 4.7 | 32 | Off. Yards/Play | 6 | 2 |
| 5.9 | 29 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.3 | 11 |
| 41.70% | 15 | Rush% | 46.95% | 5 |
| 58.30% | 18 | Pass% | 53.05% | 28 |
| 46.56% | 29 | Opp. Rush % | 42.49% | 19 |
| 53.44% | 4 | Opp. Pass % | 57.51% | 14 |
- The 49ers are fifth in the league in point differential in the first half (+51) this season and 17th in the second half (-11).
- Houston has been outscored by 121 points in the second half this season, the largest differential in the league.
- Opponents have outgained Houston by 104.1 yards per game, the largest differential in the league.
- The Texans are averaging 1.3 fewer rushing yards per play than their opponent, the worst differential in the league.
- San Francisco is averaging 1.4 more yards per passing play than their opponent, second in the league.
- The 49ers are averaging a league-high 6.4 yards per play on first down while the Texans are dead last (4.2 yards).
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Trey Lance: Lance is expected to make his second career start on Sunday with Jimmy Garoppolo dealing with a thumb injury. When Lance started in Week 5, he completed 15-of-29 passes for 192 yards and an interception against the Cardinals. Where Lance made his impact was on the ground, rushing 16 times for 89 yards. Lance had 11 designed runs in that game 44 yards.
We would gladly take that rushing volume again and play for the upside it represents for fantasy because we have a few moving parts here in the passing game. Not only has Lance had more time with the team, he also will have George Kittle on the field Sunday as well as a full-go Brandon Aiyuk, who was still being “motivated” by the team during that first start. We also have Lance at home against a bottom-end defense.
Over the past five weeks, Houston is 28th in success rate allowed per dropback (50.9%) although they have not allowed more than two touchdown passes in a game since Week 8, which has them eighth in the league in passing points allowed per game (13.9).
Lance’s rushing floor, matchup, added weaponry, and being at home all make him a viable spot start for those looking for upside at the position this week and the best streamer on the board as a fringe QB1 and strong upside QB2 in 2QB formats.