The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 16 matchup between the Chiefs and Texans on Saturday.
Find a breakdown of every Week 16 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Houston | Rank | @ | Kansas City | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2 | Spread | 2 | ||
| 21 | Implied Total | 19 | ||
| 23.4 | 13 | Points/Gm | 23.5 | 12 |
| 21.4 | 9 | Points All./Gm | 18.5 | 5 |
| 63.4 | 11 | Plays/Gm | 66.4 | 1 |
| 61.4 | 13 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 58.8 | 3 |
| 5.1 | 21 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.1 | 24 |
| 4.9 | 3 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.2 | 7 |
| 41.78% | 21 | Rush% | 42.04% | 20 |
| 58.22% | 12 | Pass% | 57.96% | 13 |
| 40.05% | 8 | Opp. Rush % | 39.73% | 7 |
| 59.95% | 25 | Opp. Pass % | 60.27% | 26 |
- Houston games are 9-4-1 toward the under this season, the highest rate in the league.
- Houston has led at the half in 12 games this season, the most in the league.
- The Chiefs have 4 wins this season when trailing at the half, tied for the most in the league.
- Kansas City has a league-high 5 wins when trailing in the fourth quarter this season.
- 26.9% of the Houston set of downs reach third and long (needing 7 or more yards), ahead of only the Browns (27.8%).
- Houston has a 32.1% success rate on rushing plays, and it is last in the league.
- Since Week 7, the Texans are averaging 4.7 yards per play, ahead of only the Giants and Bears.
- The Chiefs are averaging 4.8 yards per play over that span, just one spot ahead of the Texans.
- Over that span, only 5.7% of the Kansas City passing plays have gained 20 or more yards, ahead of only the Giants (4.2%).
- 21.2% of the passing plays against Houston have gained 10 or more yards, the lowest rate in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
C.J. Stroud: Sunday was another light fantasy line for Stroud.
He did throw a pair of touchdown passes but only managed 131 passing yards and 5.0 yards per pass attempt.
Closing the week as QB18 (11.6 points), Stroud has not logged a QB1 scoring week since Week 4.
That leaves him as QB2 for fantasy purposes.
After allowing 15 or more fantasy points to every quarterback in Weeks 7-13, the Chiefs have bounced back the past two weeks to limit Justin Herbert (13.7 points) and Jameis Winston (-0.4 points).
The Chiefs have allowed 6.9 yards per pass attempt (8th) and a 3.9% touchdown rate (11th) to quarterbacks for the season.
Kansas City has remained aggressive, playing man coverage on 32.3% of their snaps (7th) and blitzing 30.6% (6th).
Stroud is averaging 6.5 Y/A against the blitz this season (22nd) after posting 8.9 Y/A against the blitz in his rookie season (3rd).
Chiefs QB: Patrick Mahomes was forced to exit last week’s game with an ankle injury.
The injury is not believed to be serious, and Mahomes is being labeled as “week to week,” but it does put his status in doubt for Saturday.
The Chiefs have a short week and a quick turnaround in Week 17 when they must play on Wednesday.
They also play two good teams these next two weeks.
That puts the team in a bit of a jam when handling things for the short term.
Kansas City is still two games up on Buffalo for the No. 1 seed in the AFC, but the Bills do have a tiebreaker if they catch the Chiefs.
We have seen Mahomes play through injuries before, but his mobility will be compromised even if he can go.
That is part of why we are here in the first place.
Mahomes has already been sacked a career-high 35 times.
He has taken 7.3 dropbacks per game where he has been hit, a career-high.
Houston is 4th in the NFL in sack rate (8.7%) and averages 6.1 quarterback hits per game (9th).
If Mahomes can play, he will be a volatile fantasy option and has already shown a limited ceiling before accounting for his injury.
He has operated as a floor-based QB2 for fantasy.
He has two games finishing higher than QB10 in a week this season.
If Mahomes cannot play, then Carson Wentz will draw the start.
Wentz is at least a capable body, but if Mahomes was underperforming in this offense for fantasy, we should not anticipate Wentz being better.
If you have to start Wentz as a replacement for Mahomes in 2QB formats or are playing him in Saturday DFS, he scored 26.1 fantasy points in his lone start last season, in Week 18 with the Rams.
In his last season with multiple starts in 2022 with Washington, Wentz averaged 14.1 fantasy points per game.
Houston has been a good pass defense in bulk, but it has allowed big plays.
The Texans have allowed a league-low 57.7% completion rate but a 5.8% touchdown rate (30th) to passers.
Subscribe to the Sharp Football Email Newsletter to receive FREE BETS from NFL expert Warren Sharp this weekend:
Running Back
Joe Mixon: Mixon rushed 12 times for 23 yards on Sunday, catching 5-of-6 targets for 33 yards.
Mixon appeared to avoid a significant injury.
After leaving the game with an ankle issue, Mixon did return and closed the game out.
DeMeco Ryans stated that Mixon “came out fine,” but we will follow his practice availability this week to ensure he is up for Saturday.
Mixon still handled 94.4% of the backfield touches on Sunday.
He has 189-of-203 (93.1%) of the Houston backfield touches over his past eight games.
He will need that workload here.
The Houston running game has had its issues all season, and Mixon has rushed for fewer than 2.0 yards per carry in three of his past five games.
Those have come in identifiable tough matchups against Detroit, Tennessee, and Miami – three teams that have stopped the run.
That is also the case here.
The Chiefs have allowed 3.7 YPC to running backs (2nd).
They have a 66.1% success rate against running back runs (5th) and allow 2.43 yards after contact per carry (2nd).
The Chiefs also allow a league-low 5.5 receiving points per game to running backs.
They have allowed a rushing touchdown in four of their past five games, giving Mixon an added out through touchdown equity.
He has 12 touchdowns in the season.
If everything checks out health-wise for Mixon, he is a volume-based RB2, and we need to get into the end zone in a tough matchup.
Chiefs RBs: This backfield was still a more significant split than gamers would like to see, something we feared would happen for the rest of the season.
Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt each played 28 snaps with 14 touches.
Hunt posted 49 yards, while Pacheco produced 47 yards.
Pacheco has now handled 44.4%, 66.7%, and 46.7% of the backfield touches since returning, failing to crack the top 30 scorers in any of those games.
With Samaje Perine still operating as the passing down back, this usage has made Pacheco a touchdown-dependent RB3 for fantasy.
Perhaps we could see Pacheco distance himself moving forward, but fantasy gamers are not banking on that outcome.
Pacheco has rushed 34 times for 131 yards (3.9 YPC) with a run of 10 or more yards on 2.9% of his runs.
If Mahomes does not play, this offense could take a step back.
On top of everything, this is a tough matchup.
Houston has allowed 3.97 YPC to running backs (7th), with 10.8 rushing points allowed per game (7th) to backfields.
Wide Receiver
Nico Collins: Collins only caught 4 passes for 17 yards on Sunday, but he managed to find the end zone twice to boost his afternoon.
Collins has 6 touchdowns over his nine games played.
He is the WR3 in PPR points per game (19.3) and a set-and-forget WR1.
How you handle him in Saturday DFS is the only thing in question, but he is the best available wide receiver on the slate.
Collins has been active against man coverage if the Chiefs remain as aggressive as they have been.
He has been targeted on 32.6% of his routes with 3.15 yards per route against man coverage this season.
Even if they calibrate, Collins has averaged 3.23 yards per route with a target on 26.9% of his routes against zone coverage.
The Chiefs are 5th in points allowed to WR1 targets (13.1 per game), with a league-low 6.7 yards per target to those.
Lately, they have allowed more production from pass catchers that are far from the caliber of Collins.
Over their past four games, Jerry Jeudy (11-108-0), Quentin Johnston (5-48-1), Jakobi Meyers (6-97-0), and David Moore (6-8101) have turned in productive games.
DeAndre Hopkins: Hopkins grabbed 5-of-6 targets for 36 yards in Cleveland.
Once again, the roadblock for Hopkins from a fantasy stance is that he is still being used sparingly.
He ran a route on 50% of the dropbacks on Sunday and has not hit 70% in any game since joining the Chiefs.
When he has been on the field, he has been targeted on 25.4% of his routes, but his reduced playing time in the context of the offense forces Hopkins to be hyper-efficient and dependent on getting into the end zone.
That is what keeps Hopkins as a WR3/FLEX for fantasy.
Houston has allowed a league-low 56% completion rate to wide receivers, but if you are chasing a touchdown, they have allowed a 6.7% touchdown rate (30th) on those targets.
Xavier Worthy: Worthy had a season-high 11 targets on Sunday, catching 6 for 46 yards.
That does not even count his 21-yard touchdown, which was ruled as a rushing attempt on a borderline lateral.
Worthy ended the day with 3 runs for 30 yards and a touchdown.
It hasn’t been perfect for Worthy, but he has found a stable floor over the back half of the season as a WR4/FLEX.
Over his past five games, Worthy has a team-high 248 receiving yards.
He averages 4.8 catches for 49.6 yards per game, with at least 4 catches in all five games.
His 35 targets over that span are 2nd on the team behind Travis Kelce (39).
If you are looking to cash in a splash play, for as good as Houston has been overall, they have allowed a league-high 13 touchdowns to wide receivers from outside the red zone.
Tank Dell: Dell only caught two passes for 26 yards on Sunday.
He has 10 receptions over the four games since Collins returned to the lineup.
After posting 64.5 yards per game as a rookie, Dell averages 43.8 per game this season.
He has two weeks as a top-30 scorer, both in weeks without Collins active.
Outside of Saturday DFS, Dell is WR4/FLEX only for needy gamers.
Marquise Brown: Brown is on track to make his debut this season after missing all of the season to this point due to a shoulder injury.
He is live for single-game DFS gamers chasing a touchdown, but he should be expected to eased into action.
He could see a high target rate per route based on having a handful of plays built around the snaps he plays, while he also could be involved in high-leverage passing situations.
Tight End
Travis Kelce: Catching 4-of-8 targets for 27 yards on Sunday, Kelce continued his low-wattage output to close the season.
Over the past five weeks, Kelce has been the TE37, TE12, TE12, TE13, and TE21 in weekly scoring.
Kelce has 21% of the team targets with 1.14 yards per route run over that span after receiving 31.4% of the team targets with 1.89 yards per route run over his six games after the injury to Rashee Rice.
Kelce has still been on the field for 85.3% of the dropbacks over these past five games, but since he is averaging a career-low 8.4 yards per catch, he needs excess volume, which has dipped.
Potentially losing Mahomes, Kelce is a floor-based TE1 with added appeal in full-PPR formats in holding that floor.
Houston has been softer against tight ends of late to offer some matchup appeal for rebounding.
Over their past five games, the Texans have allowed 6.6 catches (30th) for 71.2 yards (31st) per game to tight ends.
Noah Gray: Gray has had 5 touchdowns over his past five games, while Kelce only has 2 touchdowns during the season. However, Gray still depends on those touchdowns for fantasy output.
He is best left for Saturday DFS as a flyer.
Gray averages 5.2 points per game in his weeks without a touchdown.
Dalton Schultz: After catching 2-of-4 targets for 13 yards on Sunday, Schultz has managed three weeks this season higher than TE20.
Schultz is averaging 3.1 catches for 31.2 yards per game, with one touchdown on the season.
He is a matchup-based TE2 and another player better used on the Saturday DFS slate over thrusting into playoff lineups.
If you are chasing the matchup, tight ends have scored 25.1% of the fantasy points Kansas City allowed, the league's highest share.
They have allowed 9.1 yards per target to tight ends (31st) and a 77.4% catch rate (28th) to the position.
More Week 16 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Broncos @ Chargers -- FREE | Thursday Night Football |
| Texans @ Chiefs -- FREE | Saturday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Steelers @ Ravens -- FREE | Saturday -- 4:30 p.m. ET |
| Giants @ Falcons | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Lions @ Bears | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Browns @ Bengals | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Titans @ Colts | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Rams @ Jets | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Eagles @ Commanders | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ Panthers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Vikings @ Seahawks | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Patriots @ Bills | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ Raiders | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| 49ers @ Dolphins | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Bucs @ Cowboys | Sunday Night Football |
| Saints @ Packers -- FREE | Monday Night Football |