The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 11 Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans Sunday afternoon game.
| Houston | Rank | @ | Tennessee | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Spread | -10 | ||
| 17.3 | Implied Total | 27.3 | ||
| 14.2 | 32 | Points/Gm | 27.8 | 5 |
| 28.7 | 29 | Points All./Gm | 23.2 | 15 |
| 58.7 | 31 | Plays/Gm | 66.3 | 7 |
| 64.8 | 21 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 65 | 22 |
| 4.8 | 29 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.2 | 23 |
| 6 | 28 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.6 | 23 |
| 38.64% | 22 | Rush% | 47.51% | 4 |
| 61.36% | 11 | Pass% | 52.49% | 29 |
| 46.66% | 30 | Opp. Rush % | 34.31% | 2 |
| 53.34% | 3 | Opp. Pass % | 65.69% | 31 |
- Opponents have scored 66.8% of the points scored in games involving the Texans, the highest rate in the league.
- The Texans have scored on a league-low 23.5% of their offensive possessions.
- Tennessee ranks 10th in the league in expected points added per play defensively the past four weeks after ranking 23rd prior.
- The Titans have produced a gain of 20 or more yards once every 23.7 offensive plays, the lowest rate in the league.
- Tennessee is averaging 4.0 yards per play the past two weeks (31st) after 5.5 yards per play prior (23rd).
- Houston is averaging 61.1 fewer rushing yards per game than their opponent, the worst differential in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Ryan Tannehill (TRUST): Tannehill has now been a QB1 scorer in three of his past four games in part thanks to having a rushing touchdown in four of his past five games played. In two games without Derrick Henry, Tannehill has an average depth of target of 4.9 yards, ahead of only P.J. Walker (3.6 yards) over that span. Prior, Tannehill had an average depth of target of 8.3 yards downfield.
We are still dealing with a small sample and the Titans are coming off facing two good pass defenses in the Rams and Saints. This week, Tannehill and this offense should be able to open things up more against a Houston defense that is 26th in defensive aDOT faced (8.5 yards) and 27th in pressure rate (20.4%). The Texans rank 29th in yards allowed per pass attempt (8.1 Y/A), 26th in touchdown rate (5.5%), and 25th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.48).
Tyrod Taylor: Taylor was a disaster returning to the lineup right before the bye, completing 55.8% of his passes or 5.6 yards per pass attempt with four turnovers versus the Dolphins. Miami pressured Taylor on 51.0% of his dropbacks where Taylor was 8-of-19 passing (42.1%) for 3.2 Y/A and three interceptions.
The Titans are 12th in pressure rate (25.7%) and 12th in sack rate (6.3%) to get home against Taylor while they have allowed 6.3 Y/A over their past five games. Tennessee has allowed 20 or more rushing yards to five quarterbacks to give Taylor an out with his legs, but Taylor is only an option for 2QB leagues.
Running Back
Titans RBs: In game two without Derrick Henry, the Titans stayed with a three-pronged approach at running back with D’Onta Foreman playing 21 snaps, Adrian Peterson 20 snaps, and Jeremy McNichols 16 snaps. Foreman led the group with 13 touches for 78 yards thanks to a 48-yard catch and run while he carried 11 times for 30 yards. Foreman finished 34 yards rushing below expectation, the worst differential of any back in Week 10. Peterson has now carried 18 times for 42 yards since joining the roster.
The Titans were coming off facing the top run defense in the NFL last week to provide some context for the depressed output. This week, they are facing a Houston defense allowing a league-worst 4.8 yards per carry to opposing running backs.
Inside of the 5-yard line the past two games, Tannehill and Peterson each have two carries while Foreman and McNichols have one, so we are still fishing a bit here for someone to stand out, if anyone ever will.
McNichols has been ruled out for Sunday, reducing the touches down to just Foreman and Peterson. Foreman should be the favorite to run the most routes and play in long down and distance, but Peterson still looms as a red zone threat. Both are FLEX plays, but Foreman carries more appeal due to a receiving role and having shown the most burst.
Houston RBs: This backfield has combined for 79 total yards in each of the two games since dealing Mark Ingram away. The Texans have not run the ball well at all, as Houston is last in the NFL in expected points added per rushing attempt (-0.19).
With Ingram gone, Phillip Lindsay (11 touches), David Johnson (10 touches), Rex Burkhead (nine touches), and Scottie Phillips (eight touches) all have shared work in the worst backfield in the NFL. Lindsay’s 54 yards in Week 6 are the most in a game for any back remaining on the roster.
Wide Receiver
A.J. Brown (TRUST): Brown has run into two tough draws the past two games for lead wideouts while the Titans have turtled a bit offensively with a short passing game. Brown caught just 1-of-4 targets for 25 yards last week, which was his lowest target share (14.8%) in a full game this season. This after receiving 34.9% of the team targets over the previous four games.
This week he trades those two tougher matchups for a date with the Texans, who are allowing 9.2 yards per target (29th) and 13.9 yards per catch (25th) to opposing wideouts.
Brandin Cooks (TRUST): Cooks had another 13 targets (33.3%) prior to the bye, giving him a 31.1% target share on the season, which is third in the league. Taylor has targeted Cooks a team-high 25 times (30.5%) while Cooks has at least five receptions in every game this season except for one.
This week, Cooks gets a Tennessee defense that, even though has stepped up of late, is still giving up production to opposing wideouts weekly. Tennessee is allowing a league-high 16.2 receptions and 212.7 yards per game to opposing wide receivers while they are also allowing a 5.5% touchdown rate (26th) to wideouts.
Marcus Johnson: While Johnson entered the week with four catches for 60 yards on the year prior to catching 5-of-6 targets for 100 yards, he does now have target shares of 23.8%, 15.6%, and 22.2% over the past three games that Julio Jones has missed. He has run a route on 76.9%, 72.9%, and 60.0% of the dropbacks, which is second on the team behind Brown in those games. While I would anticipate Brown’s target share to spike back this week after a massive dip last week, the matchup is no issue for Johnson, either, if taking a deep shot on a WR5.
More Week 11 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:
NE at ATL| GB at MIN | BAL at CHI | WFT at CAR | IND at BUF | DET at CLE | SF at JAX | HOU at TEN | MIA at NYJ | NO at PHI | CIN at LVR | ARI at SEA | DAL at KC | PIT at LAC | NYG at TB