The Atlanta Falcons face off against the Carolina Panthers for the second time this season. My thoughts for showdown are below, but if you haven’t already, be sure to check out Rich Hribar’s Fantasy Football Worksheet for a breakdown of ATL @ CAR.

Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense are much better with a healthy Julio Jones in the lineup, so I wouldn’t read too much into the week five dud. That being said, I prefer Teddy Bridgewater given his rushing upside, lower salary, home favorite status, and ideal matchup.

For non-QBs, the top projected options from best to worst are Mike Davis, D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson, Calvin Ridley, Julio Jones, and Todd Gurley. A case can be made for any one of these guys to post the highest score and they all make great options. I’d have Bridgewater near the top of these options and Ryan last.

There’s actually some solid ancillary options for this one that I’m interested in using. My favorite would be Russell Gage, who’s priced near the kickers and has a similar projection but a higher ceiling. Next best is a viable punt option, Brian Hill, who has been about as consistent as you could hope for from a cheap RB2 option. Some non-core players I’ll have few shares of are Curtis Samuel, Ito Smith, and Hayden Hurst. The kickers are great values but I don’t think I want to use much DST at all for this one.

(UPDATED) Ownership:

  • Davis or Bridgewater project as the most likely to be the top overall play.
  • Gurley and Ridley offer the most leverage among high-ceiling CPTs based on ownership projections.
  • Brian Hill is estimated between 7-15% ownership. Since he projects well and is low priced, I think it might go higher, but I want to be overweight with at least 25% or more.
  • The DSTs project between 13-15% ownership and that seems pretty high given the matchup. The kickers are 15-20% and I’d much prefer to go with either one of them if I can find the salary.
  • With Davis only estimated to be in around half of all lineups, it is a good spot to consider using him as much as possible. He offers the best value on the slate and is coming off of a couple disappointing games so the field may prefer the other options.

DK Values: 

  • Mike Davis ($8,800)
  • DJ Moore ($8,200)

DK Leverage:

  • Todd Gurley ($8,400)
  • Hayden Hurst ($6,400)

DK Build Guide:

  • Max 1 DST
  • Max 2 total DST/K
  • Max 1 MME dart throw per team
  • If CPT DST, negative boost opposing QB/K/DST
  • If CPT Ryan, force 2+ pass catchers
  • If CPT RB, negative boost opposing DST/K

FD Values:

  • Teddy Bridgewater ($13,500) – Top Pt/$
  • Robby Anderson ($10,000)

FD Leverage:

  • Younghoe Koo ($9,000)
  • Hayden Hurst ($9,500) – Overpriced

FD Build Guide:

  • No K MVP
  • No TE at MVP
  • Focus on 3-2 build construction
  • No solo CPT in 1-4 construction
  • Max 1 QB (wins nearly 3x as often)
  • If WR CPT, boost or force QB

For more optimizer build rules to consider, check out the list for each DK and FD here.