In Thursday night’s Showdown, the Denver Broncos are visiting the Cleveland Browns. For a breakdown of this game, check out Rich Hribar’s Fantasy Football Worksheet.

The Browns are riddled with injuries, including their QB, Baker Mayfield, and both starting RBs, Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. They are still projected as small favorites with a total of 41. The injuries open up a potential free square in John Kelly at the stone minimum. I will update with roster strategy once exposure projections are available. 

Strategy

It is difficult to predict who the most popular player will be, given all the uncertainty regarding rules and injuries. It looks like Teddy Bridgewater or Case Keenum will be used most at CPT with Courtland Sutton right behind, all in the 9–15% range. Daily Roto also has D’Ernest Johnson in the same range and expects him to be the second most Rostered player overall. The injuries have led to very loose pricing on both decay and FD, which will allow the field to fit nearly anyone they want. One interesting wrinkle is the huge gap in the rostership projection of John Kelly, between 4–30%.

Some good methods for differentiation tonight will be making 5-1 onslaughts of either team and leaving extra salary on the table. The field will feel the urge to use most of the abundant spare salary, so just leaving a few hundred unspent will be common. Noah Fant looks to be more popular than I expected (34–48%), and I would prefer to get all underweight considering his high cost. Besides Johnson and perhaps Kelly, anyone priced at $6400 or below should be low owned, expected <24%. Including two or more of those in a lineup should help reduce duplicates. This also seems like a good slate to break some correlation rules such as using two Browns TEs or two RBs from the same team.

DK Values

  • John Kelly ($200) – Expected RB2 at minimum price
  • D'Ernest Johnson ($4600) – Underpriced RB1

DK Leverage

  • Donovan Peoples–Jones ($6400) –  in the same price range as Beckham Jr. and Landry
  • Demetric Felton ($5000) – Projected as RB3 but priced as RB1

DK Build Ideas

  • Max 1 DST, Max 1 K
  • Max 2 depth WR/TE/RB
  • If CPT QB, include one depth option in stack 
  • If CPT RB, negative boost opposing DST/K
  • If CPT WR/TE boost team QB and force at least 1 QB (either team)
  • Cumulative ownership under 250%
  • Leave significant salary unspent 

FD Values

  • Case Keenum ($5000) – Starting QB priced at the minimum
  • John Kelly ($5000) – Underpriced RB1

FD Leverage

  • Donovan Peoples–Jones ($8500) – In the same price range as Beckham Jr. and Landry
  • Demetric Felton ($8000) – Projected as RB3 but priced as RB1

FD Build Ideas

  • No K or TE at MVP
  • Focus on 3-2 build construction
  • No solo CPT in 1-4 construction
  • Negative boost opposing QBs (Lineups with both only win 30%)
  • If WR CPT, boost QB
  • QB is overused but RB and WR are underutilized at MVP
  • Don’t stack 3 pass catchers from the same team
  • Don’t force the max salary

For more optimizer build rules to consider, check out the list for each DK and FD here.