Just when you think TNF can’t get any worse, you get the most unfortunate Showdown game this season with the Denver Broncos visiting the New York Jets. Luckily, there is money to be made even on boring slates. For a breakdown of this matchup, check out Rich Hribar’s Fantasy Football Worksheet.

Neither Sam Darnold nor Brett Rypien is projecting for over 14 DK points so I could see neither one being in the optimal. I’ll use my build rules to get exposure to each, but am not interested in going heavy on either QB for this one. 

At RB, Melvin Gordon has a nice matchup and could be a large part of the game plan given the inexperienced QB3 getting his first start for Denver. However, he is projecting as an even worse value than the QBs. Phillip Lindsay, LaMical Perine, and the ageless Frank Gore all project better than Gordon. An argument can also be made for Kalen Ballage, who showed an intriguing receiving upside last week.

Jamison Crowder and Jerry Jeudy are each the top option for their team. I prefer Crowder to the rookie, Jeudy, due to an established rapport with Darnold. Crowder likely has the highest ceiling of any receiving threat in this game. Chris Hogan, K.J. Hamler, and Tim Patrick are all in play at $5k and under. 

Noah Fant is overpriced for a TE, but has been a focal point of the Broncos’ offense and had 11 targets last week. As both a red zone and big-play threat, he has one of the best cases CPT. Chris Herndon has been disappointing so far, but that is more a result of being on the Jets than due to a lack of skill or potential. He makes sense as a stacking option for Darnold.

With the low expectations of QB play in this one, both DSTs look like strong plays. There is a high likelihood of turnovers and with a game total under 40, a DST could certainly find its way onto the winning lineup. Both kickers are solid value plays, and there is an argument to be made for multiple in the same lineup though I normally avoid it. 

(UPDATED) Rosters / Optimals:

  • The kickers are projected to be over-rostered at CPT, and this has historically been something to avoid. Although I do like them as strong Pt/$ plays, they don’t have the ceiling to pay off at CPT.
  • The top leverage spots for CPT are Darnold, Gore, Hamler, Hogan, and both DST.
  • Jeudy, Fant, and Herndon also project to be over-rostered at CPT and Flex.
  • Broncos players are likely to be more popular, but the betting market has moved the Jets to a small favorite. This should be a great leverage spot to build more lineups from a perspective of the Jets winning.

DK Values:

  • LaMical Perine ($1,800)
  • Chris Hogan ($3,200)
  • Both Kickers ($4,400 / $4,600)

DK Punts:

  • Josh Malone ($300)
  • Ryan Griffin ($900)

DK Build Guide:

  • Max 1 DST
  • Max 1 K
  • If CPT QB boost their receiving weapons
  • Max 2 depth WR/TE/RB
  • Max 1 dart throw group (or 1 per team if MME)
  • If CPT RB, negative boost opposing DST/K
  • If CPT WR/TE boost or force QB
  • Max 1 RB per team (or negative boost)

FD Values:

  • Phillip Lindsay ($6,500)
  • K.J. Hamler ($7,500)

FD Punts:

  • LaMical Perine ($6,500)

FD Build Guide:

  • No K MVP
  • No TE at MVP
  • Focus on 3-2 build construction
  • No solo CPT in 1-4 construction
  • Negative boost opposing QBs (Single QB wins far more)
  • If WR CPT, boost QB

For more optimizer build rules to consider, check out the list for each DK and FD here.