In Thursday night’s Showdown, the Green Bay Packers visit the Arizona Cardinals. For a breakdown of this game, check out Rich Hribar’s Fantasy Football Worksheet.

Both Davante Adams and Allen Lazard will miss the game due to COVID protocols and Marquez Valdes-Scantling is not expected to be activated off IR, so there is some uncertainty surrounding the Packers' offense. Who will benefit the most from increased opportunity? Will the Packers' offense be nearly as effective without perhaps the best WR in the game and their WR2? Randall Cobb and Equanimeous St. Brown should lead the way in snaps, but we also want to find potential ancillary players who can go off at low rostership.

Strategy

Kyler Murray is expected to reach Lamar Jackson levels of Showdown ownership tonight, 31-35% CPT and >90% total. He has not had a bad result yet this season, but it is always possible. Next is Aaron Jones (11-17% CPT, 60-74% total) and Aaron Rodgers (13-15% CPT, 67-76% total). The next most rostered should be DeAndre Hopkins, Cobb, and Chase Edmonds; anyone below that should help with differentiation. Given the missing GB starters, most of the top value plays are coming from that side, and the optimizers are returning more 3-3 and 4-2 Packers lineups than normal for a large underdog. Trying to create more 4-2 and 5-1 Cardinals lineups should help reduce duplicates. I could see a path where both RBs for either team could be in the optimal lineup together, but make sure to negatively correlate them if building through the optimizer. The kickers are coming in at much lower rostership than average, given the pricing and value of other options at a similar salary, and offering potential leverage. My favorite low-owned options are AJ Dillon, James Connor, and the Arizona DST. Zack Ertz ownership is projected to be low between 4-13% due to his high salary, and could be a great way to differentiate Murray stacks.

DK Values

  • A.J. Dillon ($1400)
  • Randall Cobb ($3600)

DK Leverage

  • Zach Ertz ($6200)
  • AJ Green ($6800)

DK Build Ideas

  • Max 1 DST, Max 1 K
  • Max 2 depth WR/TE/RB
  • Max 1 dart throw group (or 1 per team if MME)
  • Negative boost same team RBs
  • If CPT Murray, include one depth option in stack 
  • If CPT Rodgers, stack 2+
  • If CPT RB, negative boost opposing DST/K
  • If CPT WR/TE boost team QB and force at least 1 QB (either team)
  • Cumulative ownership under 250%
  • Leave salary unspent 

FD Values

  • Randall Cobb ($7000)

FD Leverage

  • AJ Green ($10,500)
  • Equanimeous St. Brown ($6000)

FD Build Ideas

  • No K or TE at MVP
  • Focus on 3-2 build construction
  • No solo CPT in 1-4 construction
  • Negative boost opposing QBs (Lineups with both only win 30%)
  • If WR CPT, boost QB
  • QB is overused but RB and WR are underutilized at MVP
  • Don’t stack 3 pass catchers from the same team
  • Don’t force the max salary

For more optimizer build rules to consider, check out the list for each DK and FD here.