Thursday Night Football DFS Showdown Analysis: Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans

Week 10 begins with a TNF game between the Colts and Titans. My thoughts for Showdown are below, but be sure to check out Rich Hribar’s Fantasy Football Worksheet for a full breakdown of IND @ TEN.

This Showdown slate offers a small selection of high-ceiling options for CPT, mostly from Tennessee. The Colts are one of my least used teams so far this season in DFS because they spread the ball around so much. Whereas the Titans have Ryan Tannehill, Derrick Henry, and A.J. Brown, the only choice from Indianapolis I like is Philip Rivers.

Brown is my favorite option with Henry being my least due to a tough matchup. Corey Davis also makes sense for CPT given his recent target count, but I would negatively correlate him with Brown and the other Titans pass catchers. Jonnu Smith has a decent matchup in terms of yardage and receptions, but he has been quiet and no TE has scored a TD on the Colts yet this year.

Indianapolis is using a three-man RB committee with Jonathan Taylor trending downward, making him a contrarian, overpriced option. I will use build rules like Max 2 Colts RBs and negative boosts. You could also consider Max 1 if you prefer.

The Indianapolis receiving corps is used similarly, with no consistent option at WR or TE. Currently, Zach Pascal and Michael Pittman Jr. project very closely with Marcus Johnson lagging behind as the deep threat and perhaps highest upside WR.

(UPDATE) T.Y. Hilton is returning from injury, now muddying the waters further with IND WRs. Pascal has been the most reliable but isn’t projecting higher than the others. I’ll likely mix them in fairly even with the field, with a slight lean towards Johnson and Hilton for deep-play upside.

Jack Doyle is out with an injury, so Trey Burton and Mo Alie-Cox will split TE duties. They have performed similarly, though Cox has a higher ADOT and Burton two rushing TDs. I will use a rule that prevents them from being in a lineup together. Since there aren’t any standout options from the Colts, I will probably make a group of all the past catchers, including Nyheim Hines, and allow for Max 2 of them, unless maybe Rivers is CPT.

I think Brown and Davis are my favorite CPTs to use more than the field. Wilkins makes sense as a lower owned option if he gets the majority of RB work. Lastly, Firkser projects as a great value and is my favorite punt option.

(UPDATE) Ownership:

Make some 5-1 builds for both teams. They are under-utilized in closely lined games.
Henry is projected for the most CPT ownership with 19%+. I’ll be underweight because of the tough matchup and his reliance on big plays. Use unique builds or leave plenty of salary available to avoid the most duplicated lineups.
Brown is projected near 12% at CPT. He has the type of upside where he can be the optimal CPT without even needing Tannehill in the lineup, which is a good way to differentiate on some.
Below Davis, no option is projected above 6% for CPT so you can pick your favorites to go overweight on without committing to a large % of your lineups.

DK Values: