In Thursday's featured Showdown we get a rematch of NCAA championship quarterbacks, Trevor Lawrence and Joe Burrow, as the Jacksonville Jaguars visit the Cincinnati Bengals. For a breakdown of this game, check out Rich Hribar’s Fantasy Football Worksheet.

The Bengals are more than touchdown favorites and the two best values are from their team. We can expect the majority of lineups to roster Bengals players at flex and CPT. Building as if the Jaguars win will be the simplest way to avoid duplicates. 

I want to reiterate that avoiding duplicates is more about low-rostered player combinations and using rostership product than just mixing in less popular choices. As a refresher, rostership product is the concept of multiplying players’ projected exposure together rather than just adding it, which is cumulative exposure. A 40% player and a 2% player have a lower rostership product (and more differentiation) than two 21% players, even though their cumulative ownership is the same.

(Updated) Roster Strategy: 

Firstly, Josh Lambo is out, so make sure to remove him from your player pool. This could increase the ownership of Evan McPherson and other players in that price range. Expectations differ on who will be the most rostered player, between Joe Burrow (13-19% CPT, 66-74% total) and Joe Mixon (14-21% CPT, 55-80% total). The next closest group of players are Tyler Boyd, Trevor Lawrence, and Jamar Chase between 8-12% CPT and all at least 46% total. There is a wide range of possible ownership with Auden Tate, who projects between 21-42% total. He is a strong value option as a cheap WR3 and fits a little too easily into Bengals stacks. Consider using a group of at least one depth option from the Bengals offense below Tate into your Burrow CPT lineups.

My favorite way to build for this slate is to go underweight on QB at CPT and focus on WRs. Boyd is my favorite play overall. For leverage, I also like DJ Chark Jr., Marvin Jones Jr., and James Robinson. For extra differentiation, it makes sense to mix in the depth RBs from both teams. When building for a Bengals dominant win, using one of Samaje Perine or Chris Evans would be a great way to pivot off of Tate at a similar salary. Carlos Hyde offers leverage off of Robinson, though Robinson isn't necessarily over-owned.

DK Values

  • Auden Tate ($400) 
  • Samaje Perine ($800)
  • Jacob Hollister ($1,000)

DK Leverage

  • Mike Thomas ($600)
  • C.J. Uzomah ($4,000) – Overpriced, but Tee Higgins is out so targeting ancillary pass-catchers makes sense.

DK Build Ideas

  • Max 1 DST, Max 1 K
  • Max 2 depth WR/TE/RB
  • Max 1 dart throw group (or 1 per team if MME)
  • Max 1 TE per team
  • Max 1 of Perine or Evans
  • Negative boost same team RBs
  • If CPT Burrow, include one depth option below Tate
  • If CPT RB, negative boost opposing DST/K
  • If CPT WR/TE boost team QB and force at least 1 QB (either team)
  • Cumulative ownership under 250%
  • Use rostership product to reduce duplicates 

FD Values

  • Tyler Boyd ($10,000)
  • Laviska Shenault Jr. ($8,500)

FD Leverage

  • JAX TEs ($5,500-7,000) 
  • Carlos Hyde ($8,000) – Big underdogs, expected to be the RB2

FD Build Ideas

  • No K or TE at MVP
  • Focus on 3-2 build construction
  • No solo CPT in 1-4 construction
  • Negative boost opposing QBs (Lineups with both only win 30%)
  • If WR CPT, boost QB
  • QB is overused but RB and WR are underutilized at MVP
  • Don’t stack 3 pass catchers from the same team
  • Don’t force the max salary

For more optimizer build rules to consider, check out the list for each DK and FD here.