In Thursday night’s Showdown, the Kansas City Chiefs visit the Los Angeles Chargers. For a breakdown of this game, check out Rich Hribar’s Fantasy Football Worksheet.
As favorites of a field goal, the Chiefs would generally be more rostered in 4–2 and 5–1 builds. Last night, Austin Ekeler was expected to be inactive but is now questionable and expected to play a limited role, removing some cheap RB values from the Charges side. This game is closely lined but the field is likely to overplay the Chiefs and offer plenty of leverage by building as if the underdog wins.
Strategy
The betting markets have the chargers around 40% to win, but projections for roster construction have lineups with four or five chargers expected under 13% utilization. If they do win, it isn’t a certainty that a Chargers-heavy lineup is the optimal, but the leverage is huge. In comparison, roster constructions with four or more Chiefs are expected to account for over half of all entries. If building as if the Chiefs do win, try to be creative in how they might accomplish it to help avoid duplicates, such as a long TD from a depth player or a huge DST performance.
The first aspect of individual roster ship projections I’m looking to take advantage of is that Patrick Mahomes (16-20% CPT) is slightly above Justin Herbert (15–20% CPT), though Herbert has a similar or higher projection, depending on the source, and a significantly lower salary. Additionally, the Chargers are a run final defense and the Chiefs are expected to be playing with a lead and running the ball, while Herbert should be throwing to play catch-up. That being said, I like being at or near the field on Herbert and below the field with Mahomes.
Tyreek Hill (10–14%), Keenan Allen (8–12%) and Travis Kelce (7–8%) are next in expected CPT rostership. As I mentioned in previous write ups, it makes sense to negatively correlate Kelce and Hill. I prefer to go with Clyde Edwards-Helaire from Kansas City and then go overweight on Allen, Mike Williams and Justin Jackson from Los Angeles.
DK Values
- Byron Pringle ($2600)
- Justin Jackson ($2000) – Ekeler may be limited which could lead to more touches for Jackson
DK Leverage
- Mecole Hardman ($5000)
- Jalen Guyton ($4800)
DK Build Ideas
- Max 1 DST, Max 1 K
- Max 2 depth WR/TE/RB
- Negative boost same team RBs
- Negative boost Hill/Kelce group
- If CPT QB, include one depth option in stack
- If CPT RB, negative boost opposing DST/K
- If CPT WR/TE boost team QB and force at least 1 QB (either team)
- Cumulative ownership under 250%
- Leave salary unspent
FD Values
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($11,000)
- Byron Pringle ($6500) – Hard to trust
FD Leverage
- Darrell Williams ($9500)
- Mecole Hardman ($7000)
FD Build Ideas
- No K or TE at MVP
- Focus on 3-2 build construction
- No solo CPT in 1-4 construction
- Negative boost opposing QBs (Lineups with both only win 30%)
- If WR CPT, boost QB
- QB is overused but RB and WR are underutilized at MVP
- Don’t stack 3 pass catchers from the same team
- Don’t force the max salary
For more optimizer build rules to consider, check out the list for each DK and FD here.