Week 15’s Showdown for Thursday night features the Chargers visiting the Raiders in a projected shootout. My thoughts for Showdown are below, and be sure to check out Rich Hribar’s Fantasy Football Worksheet for a full breakdown of Los Angeles at Las Vegas.
The total is currently 53, which has some of these player projections and value scores approaching what I would consider their ceiling rather than a likely median. When looking at the 16-game slate for reference, Derek Carr and Nelson Agholor project as top two plays at their positions. (Since writing this last night, Agholor‘s projection has dropped near 20% on daily Roto.)
This is a division matchup and the second time these teams will have faced off the season, which often leads to lower scores. We do get to refer to the first game to see how players performed, but it is too small a sample to rely heavily on. I’m slightly less optimistic than the industry about the Raiders’ passing attack, but this should be a fun game nonetheless.
(Injury Update) According to Adam Schefter, Mike Williams is not expected to play and the Chargers are concerned about Keenan Allen’s status and he’ll be limited if he is active. Missing his top two WRs, I’m less interested in Justin Herbert and favor the Chargers rushing attack. When these injured WRs left last week, Tyron Johnson capitalized on the extra snaps and routes. Jalen Guyton would be the other WR getting a potential boost, though he did very little last week. Should both of the injured chargers be ruled out, Hunter Henry would become an excellent option at his price rather than just decent.
Austin Ekeler is one of my favorite players in general, and his workload has been amazing since his return. Ekeler is likely to get even more targets and should be the focal point of the offense. Kalen Ballage and Justin Jackson are priced below the kickers and project close to each other. I definitely wouldn’t want all three of these guys in the same lineup so a rule for at most two Los Angeles RBs or not using Ballage and Jackson together makes sense.
The Raiders have their own missing WR as well with Henry Ruggs on Covid-IR. This elevates Nelson Agholor, Hunter Renfrow, and Darren Waller as fantastic values at their salaries and raises their floors. Additionally, Bryan Edwards and Zay Jones are viable punt options near the minimum, with my preference being Edwards.
Carr has been throwing much more recently and had some big games, but did not do much against the Chargers last time and is now missing his fastest target. He does project closely to Herbert at a significant discount though.
The Raiders’ backfield options are projecting very highly. Josh Jacobs returned from his high ankle sprain last week to only 16 touches, and he has been less productive as the season has gone on. His salary is a bit high compared to Devantae Booker and Jalen Richard, who project as two of the best values. I’m using a similar rule here to make sure all three don’t appear in lineups together, but perhaps Booker and Richard could be viable in the same lineup without Jacobs if he is limited at all. Booker is my favorite of the three.
(UPDATED) Ownership:
- Ekeler, Herbert and Carr will contend for most owned CPT with 12-18%. Jacobs and Waller are not far behind in the 9-15% range.
- Agholor, Henry and Johnson are decent mid-priced options. With the injuries, Guyton opens up as valid cheap options for CPT, a rarity. With the ownership they spread out, you can simply focus on your favorites at CPT without worrying about their popularity.
- Guyton looks like the most popular cheap option by far with 31-68% overall ownership projected. Other choices in that price range will help differentiate.
DK Values:
- Brian Edwards ($400)
- Jalen Richard ($1,200)
DK Leverage:
- Justin Jackson ($2,000)
- Jalen Richard ($1,200)
DK Build Guide:
- Max 1 DST
- Max 1 K
- Max 1 TE from each team
- Max 1 lower priced RBs from LAC
- Max 2 RBs from LVR
- Max 1 Edwards / Jones
- If CPT RB, negative boost opposing DST/K
- Leave salary on the table, especially with chalky CPTs
FD Values:
- Nelson Agholor ($10,500)
- Tyler Johnson ($6,500)
FD Leverage:
- Hunter Henry ($10,000)
- Jalen Guyton ($7,000)
FD Build Guide:
- No K or TE at MVP
- No solo CPT in 1-4 construction
- Focus on 3-2 build construction
- Max 1 QB (wins nearly 3x as often)
- Max 1 TE from each team
- Max 1 lower priced RBs from LAC
- Max 2 RBs from LVR
- If WR CPT, boost or force QB
- Leave salary on the table, especially with chalky MVPs