Thursday Night Football DFS Showdown Analysis: New England Patriots at Atlanta Falcons

In Thursday night’s Showdown, the New England Patriots visit the Atlanta Falcons. For a breakdown of this game, check out Rich Hribar’s Fantasy Football Worksheet.

As large favorites, I expect the Patriots to be heavily rostered by the field in 4–2 builds, and for 5–1 onslaughts to be overused. There might be even more leverage than normal by using the underdogs here, because not only is Calvin Ridley still gone, but Cordarrelle Patterson is also questionable and likely to miss. Additionally, Bill Belichick is known for shutting down his opponent's top weapon, Kyle Pitts in this case. For this game, the Falcons offer very few options that the field will be excited to click on. I will update with roster strategy once exposure projections are available.

Strategy

Roster construction with five Patriots and one Falcon are expected near 10% while the opposite build of five Falcons and one Patriot is closer to 2%. Surprisingly, 3–3 builds are projected for over 41% of all lineups tonight, so I would recommend going well under the field with that type while using multiple differentiation strategies.

Rhamondre Stevenson is projected to be the most popular by one source, though I’m not sure I understand the logic, given his pricing and projection. Daily Roto has him over 20% CPT, while ETR has him under 5%. More likely, Mac Jones should lead the way between 15- 18% CPT and 64–73% total. Jones has not been the best points per dollar play on his team yet this season, so I like going underweight on him and pivoting to skill position players when making Patriots-heavy builds. Anyone priced below $5700 should be pretty contrarian, likely under 25% total. Make sure to check Pattersons injury status once it’s confirmed, as he is such a huge part of Atlanta’s offense.

DK Values

Hayden Hurst ($1800)
Younghoe Koo ($4000)

DK Leverage

Any Falcons WR
Wayne Gallman Jr. ($8400) – Overpriced RB2 due to recent injuries and teammates returning

DK Build Ideas

Max 1 DST, Max 1 K
Max 2 depth WR/TE/RB
Negative boost same team RBs
If CPT QB, include one depth option in stack
If CPT RB, negative boost opposing DST/K
If CPT WR/TE boost team QB and force at least 1 QB (either team)
Cumulative ownership under 250%
Leave salary unspent

FD Values

Olamide Zaccheaus ($7000)
Mike Davis ($7500)

FD Leverage

Rhamondre Stevenson ($13000) – Way overpriced RB2
Russell Gage ($10000) – Bad projection relative to other options in this price range, but could be the Falcons' top option if the Patriots shut down Pitts.