Week 14’s Showdown for Thursday night features the Patriots visiting the Rams. My thoughts for Showdown are below, and be sure to check out Rich Hribar’s Fantasy Football Worksheet for a full breakdown of New England at Los Angeles.
This is projected to be a lower scoring game, with the total in the mid-40s. Both teams heavily lean on the running game, especially in the red zone, and use an RB by committee approach.
Sony Michel returned last week and was mainly used in the fourth quarter when the game was out of hand. His salary is way too expensive so I’m not interested. I like Damien Harris to continue to get the bulk of the carries, which favors him in positive game scripts. I also like James White for lineups building around the Patriots playing from behind. I like a build rule for at most one Patriots RB.
Cam Newton has a tough matchup against an elite Rams unit after having thrown for under 85 yards in each of the last two weeks. This has left Damiere Byrd and N'Keal Harry priced as punt options, making them strong values. Jakobi Meyers flashed a high ceiling earlier in the season but has since fallen off and is priced much more appropriately.
Ryan Izzo is the main TE, priced in between Byrd and Harry but projecting much worse. His most targets in a game was only three. The Patriots DST makes an intriguing play, given Stephon Gilmore’s return and their past dominance against Sean McVay and Jared Goff. I’d recommend using a positive boost with Harris and their DST.
The Rams backfield objects become more clear recently, with Cam Akers leading the way. He is questionable this week but expected to play, which adds some risk for reduced snaps. Darrell Henderson Jr. has seen his workload continuously decline, and is priced too close to Akers for my liking. However, if Akers were to miss, I’d be excited to use him. Malcolm Brown was heavily utilized on third downs earlier in the season. His usage has gone down but priced too low and the best value of the three.
Goff has thrown for 300 or more yards and four out of the last five weeks, but has only 5 passing TDs with 6 INTs in that time. Plus, he has struggled mightily against Bill Belichick in past years. Both Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp have been serviceable, with the former being the more consistent of the two. I slightly prefer Woods but it is kind of a coin flip. I think it is unlikely that both go off in the same game, and that would make an expensive stack.
Josh Reynolds and Van Jefferson Jr. both mixed in, with the latter recently ascending and the former's expense. I will use a build rule for at most one of them, or negative boost. For their TE position, Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett have been splitting the targets nearly right down the middle. Higbee is seen as the TE1 by some, but I prefer Everett given the salary discount.
The Rams DST is a strong play, but shouldn’t be used in lineups with the Patriots DST. It’s possible they can both get there, but the field greatly overuses double DST. The kickers are solid options and I think their ownership will continue to be in the high teens.
(UPDATED) Ownership:
- There are some mixed opinions on who is likely to be the most popular CPT tonight. The top contenders are Goff (13-19% CPT / 75-85% total), Newton (12-17% CPT / 69-76% total), Woods (14-15% CPT / 54% total) and Kupp (12-13% CPT / 49-54% total).
- With so much ownership on the Rams passing attack, pivoting to a strategy of being overweight on the Patriots passing game or either teams RBs should offer great leverage.
- Besides Byrd, everyone priced $4,800 or below is projected under 22% total ownership.
- My favorite player to go underweight on is Goff. I like Akers, Harris and White as potential options to go overweight on (>5% CPT and >35% total).
DK Values:
- Damiere Byrd ($800)
- Malcolm Brown ($2,400)
DK Leverage:
- Malcolm Brown ($2,400)
DK Build Guide:
- Max 1 DST
- Max 1 K
- Max 1 TE per team
- Max 1 RB per team
- Max 1 Reynolds / Jefferson Jr.
- If CPT RB, negative boost opposing DST/K
- Leave salary on the table, especially with chalky CPTs
FD Values:
- Malcolm Brown ($7,500)
- Matt Gay ($8,000)
FD Leverage:
- Darrell Henderson Jr. ($11,000)
- Gerald Everett ($7,500)
FD Build Guide:
- No K MVP
- No TE at MVP
- No solo CPT in 1-4 construction
- Focus on 3-2 build construction
- Max 1 QB (wins nearly 3x as often)
- Max 1 TE per team
- Max 1 RB per team
- Max 1 Reynolds / Jefferson Jr.
- If WR CPT, boost or force QB
- Leave salary on the table, especially with chalky MVPs