Week 12’s Featured Showdown for Thursday has shifted to Washington at Dallas in the afternoon, due to a postponement of the night game. My thoughts for Showdown are below, and be sure to check out Rich Hribar’s Fantasy Football Worksheet for a full breakdown of the Football Team at the Cowboys.
The top projected and likely most popular plays are Ezekiel Elliott and Terry McLaurin. We might see Andy Dalton and Alex Smith approach similar ownership, as the field tends to go heavy at QB, but neither of these backup QBs has shown much of a ceiling.
The Cowboys have become very run-heavy, so although Elliott is getting plenty of touches, he is giving up a third of the work to Tony Pollard who makes for a nice leverage play. Washington has an interesting backfield committee that seems completely dependent on whether they are leading or playing from behind. Antonio Gibson, who they use when leading, is projected poorly based on his salary and I’m curious if that will suppress his ownership. When losing, Smith has peppered J.D. McKissic with 10+ targets but he was a bust last week in a neutral and positive game script. I’ll be using rules and boosts to limit the RBs per team in my lineups.
The Cowboys WRs seem to have clearly defined rules recently; Amari Cooper is the high floor possession receiver who leads in catches in yards, CeeDee Lamb is the TD option and Michael Gallup is the low-volume deep-threat. My favorite choice is Cooper, though I suspect his ownership will be the highest.
We know McLaurin is the alpha for Washington. Outside of him, there are four options that could be the key to differentiating on this slate. Dontrelle Inman is expected to return from injury and it is unknown how much work he will get at the expense of Cam Sims, who has impressed. Steven Sims Jr. and Isaiah Wright both operate out of the slot. All four options are either affordable or underpriced and build rules (listed below) should be used to prevent overlap.
Dalton Schultz and Logan Thomas both make solid plays, though I wish their salaries were a little less. Given that they will likely require a TD to pay off, it makes sense to boost or stack them with their QB and negatively boost them with their main TD competition, (Elliott, Lamb, Gibson). The Cowboys DST is priced too low and makes a fine option.
Keep in mind that while the Cowboys are FG home favorites, they did get beat 25-3 in these teams' first matchup. Building with alternate game-scripts and implied team-totals in mind is a great way to differentiate.
(UPDATED) Ownership:
- McLauren, Dalton and Smith are all projected to be in over half of lineups and >10% CPT, with Elliot the only one over 60% and 15%. Gibson also projects >10% CPT but under 40% total, likely because of his high salary.
- Cooper (43% Total / 8% CPT) is by far my favorite target to go overweight on. He’s priced $1,200 below Lamb but with a higher projection, and has historically had a nice ceiling. Lamb (35% / 5%) is another to consider.
- From Shultz ($6,200) and below, no player is projected for over 28% ownership. Using two or more of these in a lineup will definitely reduce duplicates.
- Wright, Barber, Bell and Wilson are in play for MME builds where you want a dart-throw under 6% projected ownership.
DK Values:
- Greg Zuerlein ($3,600)
- Michael Gallup ($3,400)
DK Leverage:
- Non-McLaurin WAS WRs ($1,000 – $4,000)
DK Build Guide:
- Max 1 DST
- Max 1 K
- Max 1 TE per team
- Max 1 Gibson/McKissic
- Max 1 Elliot/Pollard
- Max 1 Sims Jr./Wright
- Max 1 Cam Sims/Inman
- If CPT QB, use 2+ pass-catchers
- If CPT RB, negative boost opposing DST/K
- Leave salary on the table, especially with chalky CPTs
FD Values:
- Greg Zuerlein ($9,000)
- Logan Thomas ($8,500)
FD Leverage:
- J.D. McKissic ($11,000)
- Non-McLauren WAS WRs ($6,500 – $8,000)
FD Build Guide:
- No K MVP
- No TE at MVP
- Focus on 3-2 build construction
- No solo CPT in 1-4 construction
- Max 1 QB (wins nearly 3x as often)
- Max 1 TE per team
- Max 1 Gibson/McKissic
- Max 1 Elliot/Pollard
- Max 1 Sims Jr./Wright
- Max 1 Cam Sims/Inman
- If WR CPT, boost or force QB
- Leave salary on the table, especially with chalky MVPs