The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 14 matchup between the Dolphins and Titans on Monday Night Football.
Find a breakdown of every Week 14 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Tennessee | Rank | @ | Miami | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.0 | Spread | -14.0 | ||
| 16.5 | Implied Total | 30.5 | ||
| 17.8 | 25 | Points/Gm | 32.0 | 2 |
| 21.3 | 16 | Points All./Gm | 22.2 | 21 |
| 58.3 | 31 | Plays/Gm | 62.4 | 19 |
| 64.1 | 21 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 61.8 | 9 |
| 5 | 21 | Off. Yards/Play | 6.9 | 1 |
| 5.3 | 17 | Def. Yards/Play | 4.9 | 7 |
| 43.92% | 10 | Rush% | 43.52% | 13 |
| 56.08% | 23 | Pass% | 56.48% | 20 |
| 44.99% | 23 | Opp. Rush % | 40.35% | 9 |
| 55.01% | 10 | Opp. Pass % | 59.65% | 24 |
- The Dolphins have scored a touchdown on 41.9% of their drives at home this season, the highest rate in the league. The league average is 21.6%.
- Miami has outscored opponents by 21.4 points per game at home this season, second in the league.
- The Dolphins are a perfect 9-0 in games they have led at any point.
- The Titans are 1-5 against the spread on the road, the worst record in the league.
- The Titans have scored a touchdown on 6.8% of their drives on the road, 31st in the league.
- Tennessee has been outscored by 11.7 points per game on the road, 30th in the league.
- The Titans have converted just 32.2% of their third downs, ahead of only the Giants (30.9%) and Jets (23.1%).
- Miami is averaging 15.7 plays per game of 10 or more yards, the most in the league.
- The Dolphins have 10 offensive plays of 50 or more yards this season. The next closest team has five.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Tua Tagovailoa: Tua was not pressed on Sunday against Washington, completing 18-of-25 (75.0%) for 280 yards and two touchdowns.
Miami cruised and Tua was not needed after halftime.
The Dolphins had a 33.3% dropback rate in the second half on Sunday, their second-lowest rate in the season. With the dogs called off, Tagovailoa was 6-of-9 for 65 yards in the second half with two pass attempts in the fourth quarter.
Tua is a QB1, but that could be a similar layout here given the implied spread.
Tua is 29th in the NFL in fourth-quarter pass attempts at home this season (22) and 24th in second-half pass attempts (72).
But any lead that Miami gets out should go through Tua.
Tagovailoa is the highest-rated passer (131.0) in the first half at home this season, completing 80-of-99 passes (80.8%) for 9.4 yards per pass attempt with 10 touchdowns and two interceptions.
Tennessee is allowing a 67.4% completion rate (26th), 7.7 yards per pass attempt (28th), and 0.440 points per pass attempt (27th).
Will Levis: Levis has not finished in the front half of positional scoring since his first career start.
Completing just 48.5% of his passes on Sunday, Levis has completed 57.8% of his passes since taking over as the starter, ahead of only Zach Wilson (57.6%) and Taylor Heinicke (55.4%) among qualifying quarterbacks over that span.
Under pressure, Levis has completed 25-of-69 (36.2%) of his passes for 4.2 yards per pass attempt.
Over their past seven games, Miami has allowed 6.2 yards per pass attempt (fifth in the league) and is sixth in pressure rate (40.6%) over that span.
Levis is only an option for 2QB gamers forced to fill a starting requirement.
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Running Back
Miami RBs: Both Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane got there for fantasy last week, something gamers have grown accustomed to when this backfield has been at full strength.
Mostert out-touched Achane 10-to-5 in the first half and then only needed two touches after the break.
Mostert found the end zone for the 16th time. That now is the most touchdowns scored by a running back age 31 or older in a season since John Riggins in 1983, who had 24.
44.8% of Mostert’s fantasy points have now come directly from touchdowns, the highest rate for a running back this season.
Achane then cleaned up in the second half, turning 15 touches into 72 yards and two touchdowns.
Achane did see his yards per carry drop into the single digits, but he now has finished as the RB1, RB5, RB4, and RB3 over his past four games in which he did not exit early.
Like Mostert, Achane has had major touchdown equity. 42.0% of his fantasy points have come via touchdowns.
Both Miami backs are predicated on efficiency and touchdown output. Mostert is someone who looks like Miami wants to scale back for the home stretch of the season when they can, but both of those backs are upside-based fantasy options.
We are catching this backfield at home paired with a massive team total and point spread, which has historically been a spot to pursue backfield production.
Tennessee is second in the NFL in points allowed per touch to running backs (0.70) to provide as much resistance as possible, but this backfield should push 25-30 combined touches.
Derrick Henry: Despite being forced from last week’s game early with a head injury, Henry had already done his damage, turning 22 touches into 120 yards and two touchdowns.
Henry was thought to have a concussion, but he is not even in the protocol to open the week and is expected to be good to go for Monday.
As strong as Henry has been the past two weeks against two defenses we have targeted all season, this is a spot overall to proceed with some caution.
The Titans are major road underdogs here.
Tennessee has lost three other road games this season by double-digit points to the Browns, Buccaneers, and Jaguars.
In those games, Henry was the RB67, RB48, and RB39, totaling 11, 12, and 11 touches in those games for 20, 20, and 44 yards.
If attempting to use that as a leverage point for Tyjae Spears, he has posted nine, 60, and 26 yards in those games.
We have seen Henry be sensitive to game scripts this season, so if Miami gets out of the gates here quickly, we will be hunting for a touchdown.
Henry is a boom-or-bust fantasy option this week.
The Dolphins are allowing 3.9 yards per carry (12th) with a 70.3% success rate (fourth) against running back rushes over their past five games.
Wide Receiver
Tyreek Hill (TRUST): Hill just causally caught 5-of-7 targets for 157 yards and two touchdowns on Sunday.
Taking advantage of a defense allowing the most touchdowns from outside of the red zone, Hill had touchdown grabs of 78 and 60 yards.
The only bummer was Washington not pushing back.
Hill had just two targets in the second half, catching one pass for five yards.
Hill now has just eight catches for 88 yards in the fourth quarter this season, which makes all of his yardage totals this season even more ridiculous.
He now has 1,481 receiving yards. When Calvin Johnson set the single-season record for receiving yards in 2012 (1,964 yards) he had 1,428 yards through 12 games.
In that season, Johnson had 627 of his yards in the fourth quarter.
Hill already has more receiving yards in quarters 1 through 3 this season (1,393 yards) in 12 games than Johnson had in quarters 1 through 3 all of 2012 (1,294 yards) in 16 games.
Oh, back to this game.
Tyreek gets another sensational draw here.
Tennessee is 28th in points allowed per target to wide receivers (1.85), allowing 8.6 yards per target (25th) and a 4.8% touchdown rate (20th) to the position.
Jaylen Waddle: Waddle ended Sunday catching 5-of-8 targets for 52 yards.
Watching the show Tyreek put on in the first half, Waddle was then on the shelf in the second half as Miami took the air out of the football.
Waddle did hurt himself with a brutal drop that could have been a massive gain, but he ran just eight pass routes in the second half, catching 1-of-2 targets for three yards.
Waddle has not had the spike moments that Hill has posted in the first half of games, so the lack of passing production from this team late in games has impacted him the most.
Waddle has caught 18-of-33 targets for 247 yards and one touchdown in the second half of games this season as opposed to pulling in 39-of-50 targets for 496 yards and two touchdowns in the first half with Miami pressing the gas.
Waddle has a lower floor than his rate stats suggest he should in this offense due to the lack of second-half passing, but he is an upside WR2 based on the same matchup appeal highlighted above.
DeAndre Hopkins: It wasn’t pretty again as Hopkins secured 5-of-12 targets for 75 yards from Will Levis on Sunday, but he saved his afternoon again with a 27-yard touchdown.
Hopkins has only caught 47.9% of his targets (23-of-48) from Levis this season, but he has five touchdowns over those six games to mitigate some of the damage.
Attached to Levis, Hopkins has 26.8% of the team targets and has 20 more total targets than the next closest player on the team.
He has 43.1% of the team’s air yards, with the next closest player on the team at 15.4%.
He is a touchdown-dependent WR2, but at least we know the volume will be there.
The Dolphins have been tough on wide receivers since Jalen Ramsey returned. Over their past five games, Miami is allowing 9.8 yards per catch (second) and 113.8 receiving yards per game (second) to wideouts.
Tight End
Chigoziem Okonkwo: Okonkwo caught 3-of-6 targets for 62 yards against the Colts.
While he still has let down year two expectations, Okonkwo has posted a new season high in yardage in each of the past two weeks.
If throwing a dart in single-game DFS, Okonkwo is second on the team in target share (15.6%) with Levis under center.
Miami is 22nd in receptions allowed to tight ends (5.3 per game).