As part of the Sharp Football Draft Kit, Raymond Summerlin is posting a fantasy football preview for all 32 NFL teams.
This preview includes advanced stats, the fantasy football outlook for Ryan Tannehill, DeAndre Hopkins, Treylon Burks, Chig Okonkwo, Derrick Henry, and every other notable Titan, and in-depth analysis of the coaching staff, passing game, and rushing attack.
Find a link to every team preview in our Draft Kit Hub.
Highlights:
- Ryan Tannehill’s rushing yards per game was down to a career-low 8.2 last season, and he was the QB23 in points per game among qualifying quarterbacks.
- Among tight ends who ran at least 150 routes, Chig Okonkwo ranked first in yards per route run (2.65), second in target rate per route (27.1%), and second in yards per target (9.8).
- Derrick Henry has now scored at least 10 touchdowns in five straight seasons, averaging 13.6 over that span.
2022 Titans Stats (NFL Rank):
- Points: 298 (28th)
- Total Offense: 5,045 (30th)
- Plays: 992 (31st)
- Offensive TDs: 32 (22nd)
- Points Per Drive: 1.53 (28th)
- EPA+ Per Play: -6.6 (25th)
- Situation Neutral Pace: 33.34 seconds (32nd)
2023 Titans Coaching Staff:
- Head Coach: Mike Vrabel
- Offensive Coordinator: Tim Kelly
With injuries to Ryan Tannehill and Treylon Burks, Robert Woods struggling to return to form following his knee injury, and not much pass catching talent on the roster, it is not a surprise the Titans struggled to throw the ball last season.
They finished 26th in EPA per dropback and dead last in pressure rate allowed. OC Todd Downing ended up taking the fall for those struggles.
Ironically, former “pass game coordinator” Tim Kelly was promoted to take Downing’s spot.
Kelly has one full year of coordinating experience without Bill O’Brien as head coach, and the Texans fielded one of the worst offenses in the league that year (2021).
Of course, he was dealing with Tyrod Taylor and a rookie Davis Mills at quarterback, so it is tough to take much away.
Kelly likely would not have gotten this job if he did not believe or at least be willing to commit to a low-volume, run-heavy attack, so we probably will not see much change from a volume and tendency perspective in 2023 if Derrick Henry stays healthy.
If Kelly can bring back some of the passing efficiency we saw under Arthur Smith, however, that would be great for DeAndre Hopkins’ chances of a top-24 season.
2022 Titans Passing Stats:
- Dropbacks: 529 (29th)
- Neutral Pass Rate: 43.7% (28th)
- Pass Rate Over Expected: -10.6% (30th)
- Pressure Rate Allowed: 27.5% (32nd)
- ESPN Pass Block Win Rate: 54% (26th)
2023 Titans Passing Game Preview:
The Titans will face the 10th-easiest passing schedule based on 2022 efficiency numbers.
- QB: Ryan Tannehill, Malik Willis, Will Levis
- WR: DeAndre Hopkins, Colton Dowell
- WR: Treylon Burks, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
- WR: Chris Moore, Kyle Philips (IR)
- TE: Chig Okonkwo, Trevon Wesco
This is a roster in purgatory and likely in need of a rebuild, but they will run it back for at least one more season with Ryan Tannehill – or at least part of a season.
Tannehill only played 12 games last season and was not asked to do much in those 12 games, averaging just 29 attempts in his nine full games.
He ranked 19th among qualifying quarterbacks in EPA per play and touchdown rate, but he was fifth with 7.8 yards per attempt.
His EPA per play, EPA per pass attempt, and success rate have declined in each of the last two seasons.
Those numbers might not matter as much for fantasy, but if they continue to decline, it makes it more likely we see Malik Willis, Will Levis, or both at some point this season.
Another issue is the opening schedule. The Titans are scheduled to face the Saints, Chargers, Browns, Bengals, and Ravens before their Week 7 bye.
They could legitimately lose all five of those games even if they are decent and enter that off week 1-5 – they get the Colts in Week 5.
If that happens, will the Titans blow it up? It is tough to know, and they could be good enough to compete in those contests anyway, which would make that line of thought useless. Still, it is something to consider.
From a fantasy perspective, Tannehill’s rushing yards per game was down to a career-low 8.2 last season, and he was the QB23 in points per game among qualifying quarterbacks.
Perhaps he has more success per pass with DeAndre Hopkins in town, but the Titans will want to keep Tannehill’s passing volume down.
Unless his rushing yards bounce back, it is tough to see much fantasy upside – there could be a garbage-time argument given that early schedule, but that is always difficult to predict.
So, Tannehill does not carry a ton of weekly upside and does not have great job security. That is not an appealing fantasy situation.
As for the backups, Willis threw 10, 16, and 23 times in his three full games last season. He rushed for 12, 40, and 43 yards with one touchdown in those games.
Willis would have some theoretical fantasy upside if he gets starts at some point this year, but he will need to be much better as a passer to really hit.
While Willis looks like the No. 2 coming out of camp, that might have more to do with Levis missing time than anything else.
If someone other than Tannehill gets starts this season, Levis is the better bet. He also has some rushing upside – not as much as Willis – but comes with nearly as many questions as a passer.
The best fantasy outcome for DeAndre Hopkins is Tannehill starting all season.
After serving a suspension to start the year, Hopkins posted a 64/717/3 line for the Cardinals in nine games last season.
He finished with solid efficiency numbers, averaging 1.99 yards per route run and earning a target on 26.7% of his routes, but he did set a career low with 7.5 yards per target.
He was cut as part of Arizona’s rebuild and finally landed with the Titans in July.
Treylon Burks had a solid rookie campaign given the situation, but he was only able to play 11 games last season and is already questionable for Week 1 with a knee injury.
The Titans needed Hopkins to solidify the No. 1 receiver slot, and he is the favorite to lead the team in targets.
The question is how many targets will that actually be?
As mentioned above, Tannehill attempted 29 passes in his full games last season, and Willis was asked to throw even less.
With his knee injury seemingly minor, Burks should be back early in the season if not Week 1, and Chig Okonkwo is the kind of weapon that demands looks.
Hopkins could find himself more in the seven to eight target range this season than the 10+ targets he has come to expect.
Burks’ weekly target projection will be lower even when he is healthy, but he showed enough last season (1.75 yards per route run) to raise the possibility he establishes himself as the WR1 at some point this year.
Available 50 picks after Hopkins, Burks looks like the better value even with the injury.
Slot receiver Kyle Philips might be a name to know in deep leagues as the season wears on, but a trip to injured reserve will cost him the start of the season.
The only other member of the passing game drafted in most leagues, Okonkwo was one of the most efficient receiving tight ends in the NFL as a rookie.
Despite running just 170 routes, 51st among tight ends, he finished with 32 catches (29th) and 450 yards (20th).
Among tight ends who ran at least 150 routes, Okonkwo ranked first in yards per route run (2.65), second in target rate per route (27.1%), and second in yards per target (9.8).
The concern is he played 93 of the Titans’ 524 snaps in 11 personnel (one tight end) last season. The Titans only played 11 52.8% of the time (25th), but that is still a large chunk of the offensive snaps.
The good news is he played every 11 personnel snap with the starters in the second preseason game.
Given how efficient he was last season, if he simply sees the field more and runs more routes, Okonkwo should smash his current TE16 ADP at Underdog.
2022 Titans Rushing Stats:
- Rushing Attempts – Scrambles: 462 (12th)
- Yards Before Contact Per Attempt: 2.3 (29th)
- Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Line Yards: 4.37 (17th)
- ESPN’s Run Block Win Rate: 71% (16th)
2023 Titans Running Game Preview:
The Titans will face the 12th-easiest rushing schedule based on 2022 efficiency numbers.
- RB: Derrick Henry, Tyjae Spears, Julius Chestnut
- OL: Andre Dillard, Peter Skoronski, Aaron Brewer, Daniel Brunskill, Chris Hubbard
There were some offseason rumors about the Titans shopping Derrick Henry, but he is back to lead the Tennessee offense for another season.
Despite missing a game, Henry led the league with 349 carries in 2022, nine carries ahead of Josh Jacobs in second place and 47 ahead of Nick Chubb in third. Both of those backs played 17 games.
Henry turned those carries into 1,538 yards and 13 touchdowns. He has now scored at least 10 touchdowns in five straight seasons, averaging 13.6 over that span.
Henry also set career highs as a receiver, catching 33 passes for 398 yards. His previous career highs were 19 catches and 206 yards.
He finished as the RB3 in per-game scoring in half-PPR leagues and the RB1 in per-game scoring in standard formats.
Henry was not helped by his offensive line last season, finishing second to last in yards before contact per attempt, and that projects to be a concern again this season despite some additions along the line.
The main concern for Henry, however, is health given the 1,249 carries he has amassed over the last four seasons.
If he is active, Henry should dominate the backfield work and be a reliable RB1 even with the concerns on this offense.
The Titans do have a better non-Henry option in the backfield this season after drafting Tyjae Spears in the third round.
After gaining 1,837 yards from scrimmage and scoring 21 touchdowns for Tulane last season, Spears showed well in the preseason and easily won the No. 2 job in training camp.
Non-Henry backs combined for 61 carries last season despite the starter missing a game.
Spears could take on more work than that, but his path to fantasy value is a Henry injury or the Titans trading the veteran as part of a roster teardown.
For Dynasty players, though, Spears is an exciting asset with Henry entering the final year of his deal.
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