Titans vs Packers Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 16

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 16 Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers Sunday Night Football game.

Tennessee	Rank	@	Green Bay	Rank
3.5		Spread	-3.5
26.25		Implied Total	29.75
31.1	1	Points/Gm	31	3
25.8	22	Points All./Gm	24.2	14
64.7	14	Plays/Gm	63.1	23
68	31	Opp. Plays/Gm	60.4	1
50.0%	4	Rush%	43.8%	10
50.0%	29	Pass%	56.2%	23
39.2%	5	Opp. Rush %	40.1%	8
60.8%	28	Opp. Pass %	59.9%	25

Green Bay leads the league in points per drive (2.91) while Tennessee is third (2.77).
Green Bay leads the league in points per play (.492) while Tennessee is second (.481).
Opponents are averaging 11.9 red zone plays per game against Tennessee, the highest rate in the league.
Green Bay has scored a touchdown on 29.4% of their red zone plays, second in the league.
70.9% of the scoring plays against Tennessee have been touchdowns, the second-highest rate in the league.
A league-leading 75.7% of the scoring plays by Green Bay have been touchdowns.
74.7% of the scoring plays for the Titans have been touchdowns, second in the league.
Green Bay is allowing 2.0 sacks plus turnovers per game offensively, third in the league.
Tennessee is allowing 2.1 sacks plus turnovers, fourth in the league.

Trust = spike production for that player
Bust = down-week production for that player’s standards

Quarterback

Aaron Rodger (TRUST): Rodgers is coming off his lowest scoring game (18.3 points) since Week 6, ending a run of eight consecutive top-10 scoring weeks. The key to Rodgers is always getting after him and Carolina sacked him five times after Rodgers was sacked just six times over his previous eight games. Under pressure, Rodgers is averaging 6.2 Y/A compared to 8.5 Y/A when kept clean.

The Titans are 31st in the league in pressure rate (16.8%) and have a league-low 14 sacks, so look for a better showing from the Green Bay front here. Tennessee is 27th in passing points allowed per game (17.9).

Ryan Tannehill (TRUST): After a midseason lull when regression appeared to finally be setting in for Tannehill, he has caught fire once again, averaging 9.1 yards per pass attempt over the past five games with four top-seven scoring weeks.

Here, we could get Tannehill in a spot where the Titans have to score points as well. The Titans have only been underdogs four times this season, but in those games, Tannehill has averaged 20.4 fantasy points with three top-seven scoring weeks. In those games, Tannehill has thrown seven touchdowns to one interception while tacking on a pair of rushing scores. The Packers are 20th in yards allowed per attempt (7.3 Y/A) and 20th in points allowed per pass attempt (0.45). As long as there are no weather concerns, this game has a ton of scoring upside.

Running Back

Derrick Henry (TRUST): Henry continues to rack up touches and yards on a weekly basis. Henry has rushed for over 100 yards in five of his past six games while tallying 222 and 152 total yards the past two weeks against the Jaguars and Lions.

He gets another soft draw on paper here against a Green Bay defense allowing 4.5 YPC to backs (21st) while ranking 29th in rushing points allowed per carry (0.72). The saving grace for the Packers most weeks is that they are so far ahead that rushing does not matter as they have faced the ninth-lowest attempts from backs on the season.

That will not be the case here. Henry has rushed for over 100 yards in three of the four games that Tennessee has been an underdog this season while Henry has rushed for over 100 yards in nine consecutive road games in the regular season, one short of the record set by Barry Sanders from 1996-1997.

Aaron Jones: Jones with a full workload is always a dream for us and it paid off last week. Jones turned a season-high 23 touches into 158 yards and a touchdown last week against Carolina. Opening the door for that high usage, Jamaal Williams played just four snaps before suffering a quad injury, allowing Jones to play 90% of the offensive snaps (he averages 58.6% per game).

Williams did not practice on Tuesday, but we still have a ways to go this week. Continue to monitor his status with the hope that we can get Jones approaching his usage from a week ago once again.

Jones already carries RB1 scoring upside attached to a home favorite with nearly a 30-point team total, but for good measure, Tennessee has also allowed 17 touchdowns to opposing backfields, 28th in the league.

Wide Receiver

Davante Adams: With Rodgers passing for only 143 yards, Adams posted just 42 receiver yards, his fewest yards in a full game played this season. Adams still secured seven receptions and had 10 targets come his way (34.4%) but his WR40 scoring week was his lowest in any full game, which was likely ill-timed for gamers that have been carried by his elite performance this season. It was the first time since Week 6 that Adams failed to reach the end zone.

Looking for a bounce back as top-shelf WR1, the Titans are 22nd in points allowed to opposing WR1 (16.5) while allowing eight touchdowns to those lead options (23rd).

A.J. Brown: Brown just continues to get there. He has not had double-digit targets in any game this season and has more than five catches in the just three games, but has 11 touchdowns over his 10 games since returning to the lineup. The Packers are sixth in points allowed to opposing WR1 (13.7 per game) with just three 100-yard games allowed to those receivers. The Titans have faced five other teams in the top-10 in points allowed to opposing WR1 and in those games, Brown has had games of 6-75-1, 4-24-1, 4-101-1, 4-62-1, and 4-87-0.

Corey Davis (TRUST): Davis has scored double-digit PPR points in 10 of his 12 games played this season as his breakout has rolled on. Circling back to when A.J. Brown has faced those teams that limit opposing WR1, those are weeks where Davis has been at his best. In those five games, Davis has received a 26.4% target share with his three highest target shares (and all three of his double-digit target games) of the season. Three of his five 100-yard games and three of his five touchdowns have come in those games.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling: Valdes-Scantling has three complete zero games over the past month orbiting a 6-85-1 game in Week 14. Outside of a single-game DFS dart, he is not trustworthy.

Allen Lazard: Lazard ran a pass route on 81.1% of the team dropbacks last week, his highest rate since returning to action in Week 11. With that, he saw six targets (5-56-0) and posted his most receptions and yards since Week 3. Lazard still has just one top-30 scoring week playing with Davante Adams, so he is also best left as a DFS dart than someone to plug into Week 16 lineups.

Tight End

Robert Tonyan: Tonyan is the A.J. Brown of tight ends. The Green Bay tight end has not seen more than five targets come his way in a game since Week 8, but he has scored a touchdown in five consecutive games. Hyper-efficient with his looks, Tonyan has secured 22-of-23 targets over that stretch. Tennessee is 29th in catch rate allowed per target to tight ends (74.7%) and are 30th in yards allowed per target (8.3 yards) to tight ends to aid efficiency being the cart driving Tonyan’s production.

Jonnu Smith: Smith’s five receptions last week were his most in a game since Week 5 while his 52 yards were his most in a game since Week 3. The Packers have faced just 5.9 targets per game to tight ends (fourth lowest), but are also 10th in points allowed per target (1.69) to the position. Smith is a touchdown-chasing tight end.

More Week 16 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet: