The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 12 matchup between the Texans and Titans.
Find a breakdown of every Week 12 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Tennessee | Rank | @ | Houston | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Spread | -8 | ||
| 16.75 | Implied Total | 24.75 | ||
| 17 | 28 | Points/Gm | 23.5 | 14 |
| 26.3 | 26 | Points All./Gm | 21.5 | 11 |
| 60.8 | 25 | Plays/Gm | 65.7 | 2 |
| 57.8 | 1 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 60.4 | 11 |
| 4.9 | 27 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.2 | 19 |
| 4.8 | 3 | Def. Yards/Play | 4.9 | 5 |
| 44.08% | 16 | Rush% | 42.74% | 20 |
| 55.92% | 17 | Pass% | 57.26% | 13 |
| 47.92% | 27 | Opp. Rush % | 40.21% | 7 |
| 52.08% | 6 | Opp. Pass % | 59.79% | 26 |
- The Titans are a league-worst 1-9 against the spread this season.
- Houston games are 7-2-1 toward the under this season (no home game has gone over), the highest rate in the league.
- The Texans have trailed for 29.3% of their offensive snaps, the 3rd-lowest rate in the league.
- Tennessee averages 1.45 points per drive, ahead of only the Giants (1.40) and Browns (1.27).
- 21.4% of the passing plays against Houston have gained 10 or more yards, the lowest rate in the league.
- 22.6% of the passing plays against Tennessee have gained 10 or more yards, which is 3rd in the league.
- Houston has a takeaway on a league-high 21.6% of opponent possessions over their past six games.
- Tennessee has turned the ball over on 15.5% of their drives, 30th in the NFL.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
C.J. Stroud: Even with Nico Collins returning to the lineup, Stroud failed to get a boost in the fantasy scoring department.
Stroud ended last week as QB26 (10.9 points).
Stroud has not been a QB1 scorer since Week 4 and has been in the back half of weekly scoring in five straight games.
He has just two touchdown passes over that span.
He has thrown multiple touchdown passes in three games this season.
The addition of Joe Mixon has cut into those touchdown passes.
Stroud's touchdown rate is 3.3% (27th), down from 4.6% as a rookie (12th).
The league rate is 4.5%, so I do expect Stroud to work toward that mean, but this is something we talked about this offseason with the archetype of quarterback that Stroud is for fantasy.
These pass-first assets must run optimally in the touchdown department to regularly get over for fantasy.
That is a tightrope to cross when those passers are expensive.
The Titans have been more vulnerable in recent weeks, allowing Justin Herbert (19.8 points) and Sam Darnold (23.6 points) to have back-to-back QB1 scoring weeks.
Both quarterbacks did have a rushing touchdown in those games, so take those final numbers with a grain of salt, but they have allowed multiple touchdown passes in four of their past six games.
I still prefer to use Stroud as a floor-based QB2, but the Texans are significant favorites at home with a solid team total, objectively making this a solid spot for production.
Will Levis: Levis had his hands full as expected last week, completing a season-low 54.8% of his passes against the Vikings.
A 98-yard touchdown pass elevated his yardage per attempt, but Levis only ended the week as QB23 (15.6 points).
He has finished higher than QB20 in just one of his seven starts this season.
Levis is stuck as a QB2, and the low team total and attachment to a huge road underdog do not help the cause.
Houston has allowed a league-low 54.9% completion rate and 6.4 yards per pass attempt (3rd), but they have allowed a 6.1% touchdown rate (31st) if hoping to run into some touchdown production.
Running Back
To continue reading this article
and gain access to The Worksheet as well as all of Rich's regular fantasy content and Warren Sharp's betting recommendations, click below to learn more about our NFL Plus package.
Learn MoreMore Week 12 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Steelers @ Browns -- FREE | Thursday Night Football |
| Vikings @ Bears | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Lions @ Colts | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Patriots @ Dolphins | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bucs @ Giants | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Cowboys @ Commanders | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Chiefs @ Panthers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Titans @ Texans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Broncos @ Raiders | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| 49ers @ Packers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ Seahawks | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Eagles @ Rams | Sunday Night Football |
| Ravens @ Chargers -- FREE | Monday Night Football |