The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 1 matchup between the Vikings and Giants.
Find a breakdown of every Week 1 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Minnesota | Rank | @ | NY Giants | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1.0 | Spread | 1.0 | ||
| 21.25 | Implied Total | 20.25 | ||
| 20.2 | 22 | Points/Gm | 15.6 | 30 |
| 21.3 | 12 | Points All./Gm | 23.9 | 26 |
| 63.0 | 16 | Plays/Gm | 62.2 | 19 |
| 64.4 | 25 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 64.2 | 23 |
| 5.5 | 10 | Off. Yards/Play | 4.5 | 30 |
| 5.2 | 12 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.6 | 27 |
| 36.69% | 30 | Rush% | 42.95% | 15 |
| 63.31% | 3 | Pass% | 57.05% | 18 |
| 40.73% | 10 | Opp. Rush % | 43.54% | 19 |
| 59.27% | 23 | Opp. Pass % | 56.46% | 14 |
- 81.1% (30-of-37) of the Minnesota touchdowns last season were passing, the highest rate in the NFL.
- 73.7% of the Minnesota offensive yardage was gained via passing, the highest rate in the league.
- The Giants were +12 in turnover differential in 2023, tied with Baltimore for the best in the NFL.
- Minnesota was -12 in turnover differential in 2023, 31st in the NFL.
- In 2023, 57.3% of New York's set of downs reached third down, the highest rate in the league.
- The Giants averaged 81.7 fewer yards per game than their opponents in 2023, the worst differential in the league.
- The Giants had a -51 sack differential versus their opponents last season, the worst differential for any team in the 2000s.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Sam Darnold: Darnold is set to start the entire season for the Vikings after J.J. McCarthy was lost for the year with a knee injury.
With Kevin O’Connell (and Justin Jefferson), Darnold will look to have a renaissance like Geno Smith had in 2022 and Baker Mayfield did last season.
Darnold has a larger sample of subpar quarterback play than good over six years in the NFL.
He has made 56 career starts, logging 11 QB1 scoring weeks in those games.
But when we last saw Darnold with Carolina and starting Weeks 12-18 in 2022, Darnold was second in yards per pass attempt (8.2) over that stretch.
He is still just 27, and O’Connell’s system can be friendly for quarterbacks.
The Vikings have used play action on 30.4% of their dropbacks under O’Connell, third in the NFL over the past two seasons.
They have used pre-snap motion on 43.0% of dropbacks, 18th over the same span.
Darnold is in play as a matchup-based QB2 and cheap DFS option against the Giants.
New York has added Brian Burns to a defense that was 29th in the NFL in pressure rate (31.8%) and 30th in sack rate (5.5%) last season.
The Giants are transitioning from Wink Martindale to Shane Bowen as defensive coordinator.
Bowen served as the coordinator for the Titans for the past three seasons.
They should be dialing back the aggressive nature of Martindale.
No team blitzed more than the Giants have the past two seasons (44.7% of dropbacks).
Over the three seasons with Tennessee, Bowen’s defenses were dead last in the NFL in blitz rate (17.2%).
The Giants played man coverage at the league’s highest rate (39.3% of dropbacks) under Martindale.
The Titans were 21st in the league in rate of man coverage (24.1%) under Bowen.
Daniel Jones: Jones only appeared in six games last season with the team going 1-5 in those contests.
While on the field, Jones only averaged 5.7 yards per pass attempt (45th out of 48 quarterbacks to have 100 or more attempts) with 2 touchdowns.
After throwing just 5 interceptions on 472 passes in 2022, Jones threw 6 on his 160 passes last season.
The Giants averaged just 3.9 yards per offensive play with Jones in the game compared to 4.3 yards per play with Tommy DeVito and 5.2 yards per play with Tyrod Taylor.
To compound matters, Jones was never healthy.
He missed time early in the season due to a neck injury and was officially shut down after an ACL injury the first week of November.
Returning from ACL surgery jeopardizes Jones from using his legs, something that has been his anchor for fantasy relevancy.
Jones has 16 QB1 scoring weeks over his career. In those games, he has averaged 9.9 rushing points.
We will get to see Jones work with Malik Nabers, giving him the first legitimate target with pedigree of his career.
Jones has thrown 100 or more passes to five different players so far in the NFL.
Those players are Darius Slayton (302 targets), Sterling Shepard (202), Saquon Barkley (189), Evan Engram (182), and Golden Tate (118).
While Nabers gives Jones the best pass catcher arguably for his career, Jones is a back-end QB2 to open the season.
Facing off against Brian Flores, we know Jones will see a plethora of zone blitzes.
The Vikings led the NFL in blitz rate (49.5% of dropbacks) in 2023 under Flores, ranking 27th in the league in man coverage rate of blitzes (32.8%).
Since entering the NFL, Jones is 30th in the league in yards per pass attempt against zone blitzes (7.3) and 39th in touchdown rate (0.4%) on those dropbacks.
Running Back
To continue reading this article
and gain access to The Worksheet and all of Rich's regular content, including positional rankings, DFS picks, and chats, click below to purchase our fantasy package
Learn More
More Week 1 fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Ravens @ Chiefs -- Free | Thursday Night Football |
| Packers @ Eagles -- Free | Friday Night Football |
| Steelers @ Falcons | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ Bills | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Titans @ Bears | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Patriots @ Bengals | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Texans @ Colts | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ Dolphins | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Panthers @ Saints | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Vikings @ Giants | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Raiders @ Chargers | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Broncos @ Seahawks | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Cowboys @ Browns | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Commanders @ Bucs | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Rams @ Lions | Sunday Night Football |
| Jets @ 49ers -- Free | Monday Night Football |
