Vikings vs Packers Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 17

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 17 Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers Sunday Night Football game.

Minnesota	Rank	@	Green Bay	Rank
6.5		Spread	-6.5
21.5		Implied Total	27
25.6	12	Points/Gm	25.5	13
24.8	23	Points All./Gm	21.6	13
65.6	7	Plays/Gm	62.1	20
66.5	30	Opp. Plays/Gm	61.7	10
5.7	13	Off. Yards/Play	5.7	12
5.7	26	Def. Yards/Play	5.4	14
42.28%	14	Rush%	41.52%	16
57.72%	19	Pass%	58.48%	17
41.88%	14	Opp. Rush %	38.66%	6
58.12%	19	Opp. Pass %	61.34%	27

The Packers are the only undefeated team at home this season (7-0) and are a league-best 6-1 against the spread at home this season.
The Vikings are allowing a league-high 5.5 scoring plays to opposing offenses per game.
77.3% of the Green Bay touchdowns have come via passing, second in the league.
65.0% of the Minnesota touchdowns have come via passing, third in the league.
72.2% of the scoring plays allowed by Green Bay have been touchdowns (the highest rate in the league), but they are tied for sixth in the league in scoring plays allowed per game (3.6).
31.6% of the carries against Green Bay have resulted in a first down or touchdown, the highest rate in the league.
88.0% of the rushing attempts against Minnesota have gained positive yardage, the highest rate in the league.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Aaron Rodgers (TRUST): Rodgers was not as perfect as he has been on Christmas, throwing for 5.9 yards per pass attempt against the Browns. But he still completed 70.6% of his passes with another three touchdowns, giving him 16 passing scores to zero interceptions over his past five games. Rodgers has ripped off 26.6 points per game over that stretch.

One of those games was against the Vikings in Week 11 in which Rodgers threw for 385 yards and four touchdowns. Minnesota has been a defense we have targeted all season, allowing 16.3 passing points per game (29th).

Sean Mannion: Mannion is set to make his third career start with Kirk Cousins going into COVID protocols on Friday. Mannion was drafted in 2015 and still does not have a career touchdown pass. In those previous two starts, Mannion threw for 4.9 and 6.0 yards per pass attempt while finishing as the QB30 and QB38 in fantasy scoring. He did not have Justin Jefferson in those two outings, but Mannion is only an option for those that are forced to fill a void in 2QB formats.

Green Bay is mid-pack for fantasy against the pass, allowing 14.4 passing points per game (18th) on the strength of allowing a 5.1% touchdown rate (26th). The Packers have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in five of their past six games.

Running Back

Dalvin Cook: Cook was placed on the COVID list on 12/23 and missed last week’s game. The new rules allow him to return quicker than the mandatory 10 days he would have missed, so we should see him log some practice time this week if all things check out with his heath. We have expressed some caution with players coming off COVID, but we still will be handling Cook as a fantasy RB1 where you have him. We likely will not see Cook handle 88.2% share of the backfield touches (a season-high) like he did in Week 15.

We do still wish Cook was catching the ball more. He has more than three catches in just two games this season with two or fewer in six.

We may not need a ton of passing game involvement here as the Packers are 30th in success rate allowed against the run, allowing 4.46 yards per carry to backs (24th), but are often bailed out by game script as opposing backs have just 18.1 attempts per game against them (third). The point spread definitely puts that in jeopardy to a degree.

Aaron Jones: Jones has finished as an RB1 scorer in just four games this season (once since Week 8), but his usage on Christmas was the best we have seen for him since his injury in Week 9. Jones handled 17 touches while he caught five passes, his highest totals in both categories in a game since Week 8.

That Week 8 game was the last time Jones has hit 100 yards in a game, which still makes an RB2 that needs to find the end zone to access an RB1 ceiling. The Vikings can be run on, allowing 100.7 rushing yards per game (23rd) and 14.1 rushing points per game (19th) to backs.

A.J. Dillon: Dillon has seen his workload dip with Jones getting healthier. Dillon has 34.8% and 41.4% of the backfield touches the past two games after rates of 63.9%, 71.4%, and 65.2% over his previous three games played with Jones active. That usage knocks Dillon down to a touchdown-dependent FLEX.

Wide Receiver

Davante Adams (TRUST): Adams continued to stay scorching, giving gamers a 10-114-2 line on 13 targets on Christmas Day. Adams now has seven touchdowns over his past five games played with over 100 yards receiving in four of those weeks. That includes a 7-115-2 game on eight targets against Minnesota in Week 11.

The Vikings are 31st in the league in points allowed per game (17.9) to opposing WR1 options for fantasy, allowing an average game of 6.0 catches for 80.9 yards to those wideouts to go along with six touchdowns.

Justin Jefferson: Catching 8-of-12 targets for 116 yards Sunday, Jefferson continued to be jammed with elite opportunity in the passing game. Jefferson has now seen a gaudy 35.2% of the Minnesota targets over their past seven games with a “low week” of 28.1%. If Thielen is unavailable, Jefferson received 48.4% and 45.6% of the targets in the two games that Thielen has missed this season. That hot stretch includes an 8-169-2 game against the Packers in Week 11. Jefferson is still going to command a healthy share of targets to keep in lineups, but with Mannion under center has a lot more volatility tied into his outcome.

K.J. Osborn: In the past four games with Thielen logging just 29 total snaps, Osborn has had games of 4-47-1, 3-83-1, 3-21-0, and 5-68-1 on 20.2% of the team targets. Osborn has been more touchdown-dependent to get there for fantasy, but that is not overly different from what we were getting from Thielen. The loss of Kirk Cousins makes it harder to jam Osborn into lineups, but he as WR4/FLEX.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling: Valdes-Scantling missed Week 16 due to COVID but caught 5-of-7 targets for 98 yards and his third touchdown when we last saw him in Week 15. Valdes-Scantling has started to see more target opportunity, receiving five or more targets in each of his past four games with seven or more in three of those.

Tangible target volume paired with an average depth of target of 18.9 yards downfield makes Valdes-Scantling an intriguing WR3 with upside, but he still is getting volatile targets, which is why we still have not seen him finish higher than WR44 in a week in which he did catch a touchdown pass.

The Vikings have struggled to defend the deep ball this season, ranking 29th in points allowed per target on throws 15 yards or further downfield and 28th in touchdowns allowed (nine) on those targets. That includes a 4-123-1 game on 10 targets to MVS in Week 11.

Allen Lazard: Lazard caught 2-of-5 targets for 45 yards and a score on Christmas. It was the fifth time in eight games that Lazard has reached the end zone, but with 45 yards or fewer in every game but two this season, Lazard is still a better single-game DFS option outside of touchdown hunting in deeper seasonal leagues.

Tight End

Tyler Conklin: Conklin has finished higher than TE15 just four times this season, so we are largely still only interested in him as a single-game DFS dart and TE2. The Packers have allowed a 74.3% catch rate (29th) and a 6.4% touchdown rate (24th) to opposing tight ends, but that did do much for Conklin in Week 11 (3-35-0). In the two games with Thielen out, Conklin had five total targets.

Josiah Deguara: Deguara has not had more than three receptions in a game yet but could potentially run into some extra snaps and opportunity should Marcedes Lewis remain in COVID protocols come Sunday. Deguara did catch his lone touchdown this season against Minnesota but is only a single-game DFS dart.

More Week 17 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet: