Vikings vs Packers Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 17

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 17 Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers Sunday afternoon game.

• The Vikings have had five games in a row go over the game total, tied with the Cowboys for the longest streak in the league.
• Minnesota is a league-best 10-3 after trailing in the game at any point, including a league-best 8-3 record after trailing in the fourth quarter.
• The Vikings are 11-0 in games they have led at any point, the best record in the league.
• Since Week 10, the Packers are fifth in the league in points per drive (2.56) after ranking 28th prior (1.51).
• Since Week 10, the Packers are allowing a league-high 6.3 yards per play. 
• Over that same span, the Vikings are allowing 6.3 yards per play (30th).
• Minnesota is allowing a league-high 4.8 scoring plays per game, but only 50% of those plays have been touchdowns, tied for the fifth-lowest rate in the league.
• Minnesota is averaging 3.42 yards per carry since Week 11, ahead of only the Texans (2.84 YPC) over that span.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Kirk Cousins: Coming out of a tough gauntlet in the middle of the season against the Bills, Cowboys, Patriots, and Jets, Cousins has ripped off three consecutive top-five scoring weeks against the Lions, Colts, and Giants. 

Cousins and the Vikings have been winging it as well. He has thrown 143 passes over the past three weeks. The Vikings have really struggled to run the football and they have swerved into a more aggressive approach. Even with game script accounted for, Minnesota is 6% above pass rate expectation over the past three weeks. 

Cousins will look to stay hot against a Green Bay defense that is allowing a 65.6% completion rate (23rd), 7.5 yards per pass attempt (27th), and a 4.7% touchdown rate (26th). Cousins was the QB11 (19.1 points) when these teams played in the season opener. 

Cousins has thrown more than one touchdown pass just once on the road in Green Bay, but he also hasn’t played there since 2020. As of right now, early weather reports are looking like we won’t have any major issues to worry about here. 

Minnesota is stacking scoring opportunities while Cousins has attachment to the best fantasy wide receiver to keep him in play as a QB1.

Aaron Rodgers: Rodgers ended last week as the QB14 (13.3 points). Throwing for 238 yards (6.3 Y/A) and one touchdown, Rodgers still has just one week finishing higher than QB12. Rodgers is averaging a career-low 222.1 passing yards per game while his 6.8 Y/A is higher than only his 2015 season.

We are running into another strong matchup on paper, but Rodgers has already faced the Lions (QB16), Titans (QB12), Bears (QB16 and QB19), and Dolphins (QB14) and has routinely failed to get over the hump for a spike week. Rodgers has given us no reason to treat him as more than a high-end QB2.

That said, I would not fault anyone for chasing this matchup still. Minnesota has allowed a top-10 scoring quarterback in 10 of their past 12 games, with the exceptions being Taylor Heinicke (QB15) and Matt Ryan (QB22). The Vikings are allowing 7.9 Y/A (31st) and 15.9 passing points per game (28th).

Running Back

Dalvin Cook: A week after posting a season-high 190 total yards, Cook had just 77 yards on 17 touches against a Giants defense that had been getting slashed by opposing backs. Since Week 11, Cook is averaging 3.86 YPC, which ranks 28th among 35 backs with 50-plus carries over that stretch. Just 14.1% of Cook’s carries over that span have resulted in a first down or touchdown, which is 34th among those backs.

We are looking for a slump buster on the ground for Cook. Being a road underdog casts some shade here, but the Packers are another matchup to target to get this running game going and has Cook in play as a boom-or-bust RB1. Green Bay is allowing 4.84 YPC to backs (27th) and 16.1 rushing points per game to backs (25th). Cook had 108 yards on 23 touches against the Packers in the opener.

Aaron Jones:  Jones had just eight touches for 34 yards on Christmas Day. He matched a season-low by playing just 38% of the snaps while it was the first time he had single-digit touches in a game since the season opener. 

Jones has had ankle and shin injuries over the back half of the season that may be impacting him more than he or the team are letting on, but he was just coming off 21 touches the week prior and was not on the injury report. 

Jones now rushed for 43 yards or fewer in seven of his past 10 games. He has not handled 60% of the backfield touches in a game since Week 11. Jones is still averaging a career-high 3.6 receptions per game. Jones is still an upside RB2, but it definitely feels like we are missing information from a week ago.

Minnesota has been good against the run but has been vulnerable to backs out of the backfield. This was true last week with Miami as well, so we will get another good spot to gauge what is going on here or if last week was just happenstance. 

The Vikings have allowed 3.86 YPC to backs (sixth) but have allowed 11.4 receiving points per game to backfields (27th).

A.J. Dillon: Dillon was limited to 48 yards on his 13 touches on Sunday, but he managed to cash in another short scoring opportunity for his sixth rushing touchdown of the year. After failing to reach the end zone at all Weeks 2-11, Dillon now has five touchdowns on the ground over the past four weeks. 

Dillon handled 59.1% of the backfield touches on Sunday, his highest rate in a game since Week 1. He also ran a route on 42.9% of the dropbacks, a rate that has been rising over this stretch of the season where something may be going on with Jones. Dillon has multiple catches in each of the past four games after doing that four times over the opening 11 games. 

Dillon still only has one game this year inside of the top 30 without a touchdown, so we still need to get him into the end zone. That keeps him on the RB2/FLEX line.

As mentioned, Minnesota is a matchup that seems tailor-made for Jones, but we did see Dillon open the season with 91 yards and a touchdown on 15 touches against the Vikings. 

Wide Receiver

Justin Jefferson (TRUST): Jefferson continued to blaze the box score on Saturday, pulling in 12-of-16 targets for 123 yards and a touchdown against the Giants. Since the Vikings acquired T.J. Hockenson, Jefferson now has finished as the WR4, WR2, WR53, WR1, WR1, WR3, and WR2. He has over 100 yards and double-digit targets in all of those games except for the Dallas blowout. 

Over that span, Jefferson has been aided by running the most pass routes in the NFL (355). Over that period, Jefferson has nine more targets, 10 more catches, and 226 more yards than the next closest player. 

We have mentioned the numbers before, but since acquiring Hockenson, Jefferson has improved his quality of target immensely. Jefferson has a depth of target of 11.5 yards downfield with 32.0% of his targets in the intermediate area of the field and 17.5% as deep targets after 18.3% of his targets as intermediate looks and 9.9% as deep targets prior.

The Packers are a zone-heavy team (74.1% of pass plays) that also loves to blitz (40.0%, which is second). They played zone on 85% of the snaps against Minnesota in Week 1 while they were consistently put in a blender by Jefferson in that game. Jefferson caught 9-of-11 targets for 184 yards and two touchdowns, steadily wide-open on safeties and linebackers.

There were multiple points where Jefferson was running free, while he had these catches highlighted with the primary Packer defender in assignment…

22-yard catch vs rookie LB Quay Walker
36-yard TD catch vs safety Adrian Amos
5-yard TD catch vs safety Adrian Amos
64-yard catch vs safety Darnell Savage

Notice what you do not see? Any catches where Jaire Alexander was the closest defender. Jefferson had just three catches for 31 yards as part of his line against actual cornerbacks in primary coverage. Alexander has been vocal about wanting the opportunity to cover Jefferson, but Green Bay has been reluctant to alter its defense to this point. 

The Packers have allowed 8.9 yards per target to opposing wide receivers (29th) with a 4.6% touchdown rate (21st) to the position.

Adam Thielen: Thielen caught just 1-of-5 targets for six yards on Saturday as he has been pushed into a clear ancillary role in the offense since the team added Hockenson. Thielen has a 15.2% target share and has been targeted on 14.6% of his routes since the team added the tight end compared to a 20.3% target share and 18.2% target per route rate prior. 

Thielen is a touchdown-dependent FLEX. In games without a touchdown, Thielen is averaging 8.1 points per game compared to 17.5 points per game in weeks with a score. 

Green Bay WRs: We are entering the week unsure if Christian Watson will be available this week after exiting last week’s game at halftime with a hip flexor. If things trend positively for Watson to get back on the field this week, circle back here but we cautiously approach things with him absent. Watson was on his way to a strong game against Miami (6-49-0 at the break), but another injury derailed things. Watson now has dealt with hamstring, ankle, and hip injuries as a rookie while he also had a concussion. 

Allen Lazard remains the Packer wideout playing the most. He ran a route on another 95.2% of the dropbacks Sunday. Lazard had 11 targets come his way (5-61-0), his most in a game since Week 11. That was not surprising considering his splits versus man coverage. Minnesota has been mixing in a lot more man coverage here of late, trying to find some answers for a struggling pass defense. 

The Vikings have played man coverage on 31.7% of pass plays over the past three weeks, which is the fourth-highest rate in the league. Prior to that, they had played man coverage on just 11.0% of passing plays, 31st in the league.

Lazard has been targeted on 27.0% of his routes against man coverage as opposed to just 15.8% against zone coverage. Lazard is a solid WR3 in this matchup, but gains more upside if Watson is out. Lazard has run 253 routes this season with Watson off of the field and has been targeted on 21.3% of them compared to 18.5% with Watson on the sideline. 

Romeo Doubs is the next man up if Watson is sidelined. Doubs plays 80% of his snaps on the outside, where Minnesota is allowing a league-high 28.5 points per game to wide receivers. On the outside, Minnesota is allowing a league-high 10.5 yards per target and 10.0 catches per game to wideouts. If Watson is out, Doubs becomes an upside FLEX play. 

Randall Cobb just isn’t running enough routes to trust as more than a dart throw. Cobb ran a route on 50% of the dropbacks last week and has not run a route on more than 65% of the dropbacks since Week 5. An absence for Watson can boost his role, but Lazard and Doubs carry the most upside and target potential.

Tight End

T.J. Hockenson: Hockenson had largely been living on a volume spike since joining the Vikings, but he crashed through his ceiling last weekend, catching 13-of-16 targets for 109 yards and two touchdowns against the Giants. 

Since joining the Vikings, Hockenson is fourth in the NFL in routes run and fifth in targets (73). That is among all players, not just tight ends. He is averaging just 6.1 yards per target as a Viking compared to 9.2 yards per target with Detroit, but his volume spike has more than made up all of the ground. Hockenson had more than seven targets in just one game with the Lions. He has eight or more targets in six of his eight games with the Vikings.

Hockenson is a front-tier TE1. Green Bay has allowed just 3.5 receptions per game to tight ends (second) and 6.5 yards per target (seventh) to the position, but they have allowed a 9.7% touchdown rate to tight ends, 31st in the league.

More Week 17 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:

DAL at TEN | ARI at ATL | CHI at DET | DEN at KC | MIA at NE | IND at NYG | NO at PHI | CAR at TB | CLE at WAS | JAX at HOU | SF at LVR | NYJ at SEA | MIN at GB | LAR at LAC | PIT at BAL | BUF at CIN