The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 9 Minnesota Vikings at Baltimore Ravens Sunday afternoon game.
| Minnesota | Rank | @ | Baltimore | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5 | Spread | -5.5 | ||
| 22 | Implied Total | 27.5 | ||
| 23.3 | 18 | Points/Gm | 26.7 | 8 |
| 22.4 | 12 | Points All./Gm | 23.4 | 17 |
| 68.6 | 5 | Plays/Gm | 67.3 | 8 |
| 64.7 | 23 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 61 | 9 |
| 5.8 | 14 | Off. Yards/Play | 6.2 | 4 |
| 5.7 | 20 | Def. Yards/Play | 6.3 | 30 |
| 40.42% | 19 | Rush% | 45.44% | 7 |
| 59.58% | 14 | Pass% | 54.56% | 26 |
| 40.62% | 16 | Opp. Rush % | 33.96% | 2 |
| 59.38% | 17 | Opp. Pass % | 66.04% | 31 |
- The Ravens are averaging 6.4 yards per play on first down (third in the league), 6.9 yards per play on second down (fourth), but just 3.8 yards per play (30th) on third downs.
- Lamar Jackson is averaging 9.2 yards per pass attempt on first and second down (second in the league) as opposed to 5.9 Y/A on third down (32nd).
- Minnesota is allowing a league-low 5.7 red zone plays per game.
- Baltimore is fourth at 6.3 red zone plays per game allowed.
- The Ravens have allowed a league-high 11 touchdowns from outside of the red zone this season.
Trust = spike production for that player
Bust = down-week production for that player’s standards
Quarterback
Lamar Jackson: Prior to the bye, Jackson completed a season-low 48.4% of his passes, but with 88 rushing yards was able to aid his production enough to turn his third QB1 scoring week of the season. Jackson has thrown multiple touchdown passes in just one game this season, which has limited his ceiling, but Jackson still has 18 or more fantasy points in every game but one to showcase his floor.
The Vikings are really good at getting pressure without blitzing and we have seen Jackson be sacked on 8.5% of his dropbacks, which is the highest rate since his rookie season. Under pressure, Jackson has completed just 48.4% of his passes for 7.0 yards per pass attempt as opposed to a 71.4% completion rate and 9.3 Y/A when kept clean. Minnesota has blitzed just 25.1% of the time (16th) but is first in pressure rate (31.7%).
As a byproduct, opposing passers are completing 61.1% of their passes (fourth lowest), but Minnesota is allowing 7.6 Y/A (21st) and 12.4 yards per completion (27th). When Jackson is completing passes this year, they are for chunk gains, averaging 8.6 Y/A (sixth) and 13.3 yards per completion (first). The loss of Danielle Hunter for Minnesota can play a huge role here.
The pressure element is a concern here, but the opportunity for chunk plays and Jackson’s demonstrated high floor give him upside with a soft-landing pad as a QB1 fantasy option.
Kirk Cousins: Cousins is someone that I have had just no pulse for the past month. I have been on him in matchups against the Lions and Cowboys where he has struggled and then off him against Carolina when he was the QB2 in overall scoring. So, take it with a grain of salt when I say there is a concern here due to the amount of heat the Ravens can get on the opposing passer.
Cousins is averaging 4.0 yards per pass attempt under pressure as opposed to 8.7 Y/A when kept clean. That -4.7 Y/A under pressure is the largest differential in the league. Against the blitz, Cousins has a 61.3% completion rate and three touchdowns, but when not blitzed, he has a 72.0% completion rate with 11 touchdowns. The Ravens blitz at the league’s fourth-highest rate (32.5%) and are sixth in pressure rate (27.0%). That said, this is almost the exact same layout that Cousins had against the Carolina defense.
The Ravens have given up plenty of big plays defensively. They are allowing 8.2 yards per pass attempt (28th) and 12.9 yards per completed pass (31st). Cousins will have to handle the pressure, but big plays have been accessible versus this defense to keep him in mind in DFS and a boom-or-bust QB2.
Running Back
Dalvin Cook: In a game Minnesota led throughout on Sunday night against Dallas, Cook turned 18 touches into 78 yards. After a season-high 88.6% of the backfield touches prior to the bye, Cook handled 69.2% of the backfield touches last week, his lowest rate in a healthy game this season. With zero catches on Sunday, Cook now has not had more than two catches in a game since Week 1.
Cook is good enough to get over on any defense, but we are going to need some passing involvement here. 27.9% of the rushing attempts against Baltimore have failed to gain yardage, the highest rate in the league. No running back has hit 60 yards rushing against them yet this season, with Joe Mixon, Jonathan Taylor, and Austin Ekeler as part of the sample. Baltimore has allowed 12.2 receiving points per game (22nd) to backs and some of the largest games they have allowed were to Taylor (who added 3-116-1 receiving) and D’Andre Swift (who had 7-60-0 receiving). Cook is an RB1 option we are hoping gets used in the passing game to the degree he was to open the season as a road underdog.
Ravens RBs: This backfield last left off with Devonta Freeman, Le’Veon Bell, and Ty’Son Williams combining for 10 touches, 38 yards, and a touchdown against the Bengals. On top of those options, Latavius Murray could be back after an ankle injury forced him to miss Week 7.
Just twice all season has an individual back in Baltimore topped 60 yards in a game and both belong to Williams in Weeks 1-2. Murray has four rushing touchdowns if we believe there is a goal line back here, but largely the playing time has been nebulous.
Minnesota can be run on, allowing 4.5 YPC to backs (24th) and 14.7 rushing points per game (22nd), but this backfield is a grab bag of FLEX dart throws exiting the bye week to buy into.
Wide Receiver
Marquise Brown: For as much as the Ravens struggled in Week 7, Brown was still able to get home, catching 5-of-14 targets for 80 yards and a touchdown. Brown has now scored in five of his seven games this season.
Even with the bye week, Brown leads the NFL in targets 15 yards or further downfield (25) and he is third in the NFL in fantasy points scored on those targets. Minnesota has handled these targets well, allowing a 35.9% completion rate (10th) on those throws, but they are 20th in yardage allowed on those targets. When they do give them up, they are huge gains, which ties into their lofty yards allowed per attempt and completion highlighted with Jackson.
We should see the Ravens finally have all of Brown, Sammy Watkins, and Rashod Bateman on the field this week to go along with Mark Andrews, so there could be a target squeeze, but Brown has been too electric and a big-play magnet to not treat as an upside WR2 option.
Justin Jefferson (TRUST): Jefferson was targeted a season-low four times last week, catching two for 21 yards. This after receiving at least seven targets in every game coming in with at least 65 yards receiving in those games.
If the Ravens are going to blitz and play man coverage, Jefferson could be in for a huge bounce-back spot. Jefferson is averaging 3.6 yards per route run against man coverage as opposed to 1.6 yards per route against zone coverage on the year. Only two wideouts have had WR2 or better weeks against the Ravens, but they have been spike weeks to Ja’Marr Chase (8-201-1) and Michael Pittman (6-89-1).
Adam Thielen (TRUST): After a lull Weeks 4-5 where he caught a total of five passes for 86 yards, Thielen has bounced back with games of 11-126-1 (13 targets) and 6-78-1 (nine targets). The last time Theilen played a blitz-heavy opponent with a similar layout was that game against Carolina. We can assume that the Ravens are going to throw Marlon Humphrey at Jefferson often, leaving Thielen to contend with Anthony Everett, who has been targeted more than any other cornerback in the league per Pro Football Focus (60 targets). He has limited 58.3% to be completed, but he has allowed the third-most receptions (35) and second-most receiving yardage (477) in coverage this season. Jefferson has more ability to break the game open, but Thielen has a great layout as well to be peppered with opportunities should the Ravens come out aggressively.
Rashod Bateman: Bateman has had six targets in each of his first two career games, posting lines of 4-29-0 and 3-80-0. The Ravens should be getting Sammy Watkins back here after he missed both of those games, so we will have to see how the target tree shakes out for Bateman and Watkins behind Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews, leaving both as volatile FLEX options.
K.J. Osborn: Osborn has three or fewer receptions in four of his past five games, so he is not much of a seasonal league option. But if this game has potential for the Vikings passing game to respond as it did versus Carolina, Osborn did catch 6-of-7 targets for 78 yards and a score in that game as a unique game stacking option.
Tight End
Mark Andrews: Andrews caught 3-of-7 targets for 48 yards heading into the bye, catching a season-low 42.9% of his targets. Andrews sits fourth among all tight ends in targets per game (7.3), seventh in route participation (78.4%), and fifth in target rate per route run (21.8%) to cement him as a fantasy TE1 option. Minnesota has only faced 5.6 targets per game to tight ends (sixth-fewest) and has yet to allow a touchdown to the position, but they have allowed 8.4 yards per target (25th) to the position.
Tyler Conklin: Conklin is coming off catching 5-of-7 targets for 57 yards last week against the Cowboys, his highest target share on the season. Over the past two games, Conklin has 128 yards the past two games and is running a pass route on 68.2% of the Minnesota dropbacks (12th among tight ends). The Ravens have faced a tough schedule of tight ends, but they have been giving all season to the position, allowing 8.1 yards per target (23rd) and a 8.9% touchdown rate (29th). The Ravens have allowed five TE1 scoring weeks in seven games and that includes players such as Jared Cook and C.J. Uzomah. Conklin will be a top streamer this week and popular DFS option.
More Week 9 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:
NYJ at IND | ATL at NO | LVR at NYG | NE at CAR | CLE at CIN | HOU at MIA | MIN at BAL | BUF at JAX | DEN at DAL | LAC at PHI | ARI at SF | GB at KC | TEN at LAR | CHI at PIT